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For the offense this year? Strictly PPG can we average 30 PPG? I'm not too worried about yards because that can be a misleading stat.
I think we can average somewhere between 32-34 PPG and around 28 PPG in SEC play.
If our defense can average 28 PPG which is not impressive we should win some games this year.
I think 24-25 per game in sec play.
27-31 in SEC. 37-41 in non conference. We go anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4. I think we go 7-5 and bowling regardless. I think people are sleeping on this team simply from the unknowns with a new coach and a DC nobody knows. We have talent.
It's hard for me to say. I subconsciously over-estimate our guys because of familiarity and homerisim. So I have to factor that.
I agree 100%. Plus I think a lot of people are scarred from Arnett. I don't think the last staff was able to maximize the talent we had that is coming back so some guys are probably better than we realize like John Lewis for example.Quote:
Originally Posted by mparkerfd20
Hopefully we well get to see what the Dawgs can do with what should be a real coaching staff.
If we win 6 or more games with this roster go ahead and offer Lebby a lifetime contractQuote:
Originally Posted by mparkerfd20
5-7 or 6-6
I got burnt being excited for the first years of the Moorhead and the Arnett tenures only to be sorely disappointed. I'm purely wait and see with Lebby.
Will be back here to answer this after the third game.
We don't play Bama this year so the average automatically goes up.
I'd be interested to see our ppg in sec play the last ten years
2014. 33.75 in sec play.
2015. 26.25 in sec play.
2016. 29.25 in sec play.
2017. 26.25 in sec play.
2018. 19.25 in sec play. Geez Joe.
2019. 23.25 in sec play.
2020. 20.7 in sec play.
2021. 28.5 in sec play.
2022. 25.375 in sec play.
2023. 12.625 in sec play. My word.
That is part of what is wrong historically with MSU. Our fans fall so in love with a coach that they equate a few winning seasons to lifetime security. With Jackie, things started going off the rails and we continued to give him more seasons to see if it would change. Same with Polk 2 and Bury. Fans get all emotional and it makes moving on a much bigger challenge than it needs to be.Quote:
Originally Posted by MoreCowbell
We also have a segment of the fan base that thinks "the media" is gonna be mad with big ol MSU if we fire a coach. Most sane fans knew after season 2 of Crooms that it wasn?t gonna work yet we let that clown stick around for 5 seasons and even spelled out his damn name with the band after an exhilarating 10-3 pounding of mighty UCF.
MSU fans have got to stop with this way of thinking. College football is a business. Coaches are burning out and retiring younger and younger, so the odds of having a coach stick around 5 or more seasons is drastically less than it was in the last several decades. What you really need to concentrate on is making sure that you continue to employ ADs that have a sack and are willing to make big boy decisions
In Lebby's last 4 years as an OC his offenses have averaged around 35PPG. I'd expect us to be somewhere between 25-28 in conference play and 35-40 in non con. That should be good enough for 6-6
6-6 floor and 7-5 ceiling. OOC is usual cupcakes. We are not the only SEC team rebuilding through the portal or coming off a bad/mediocre year. Coaches that can turn 40 or even more portal individuals into a team quickly will be successful nationwide and I think Lebby knows how to play this new game. Mark me excited! Hail State!
In the past, we have leaned upon and attempted to use "stability" as a strength and sometimes we confused stability with consistency. I think our current leadership has transitioned us to a much more sound business model and we do realize that it is more a business than ever before. But we also have to realize and identify "what is success" relatively at MSU. I long supported Dan and Rick because I still believe that they represented good success at MSU and, frankly, part of our football program and challenge at present is due to coaching instability over the last 6 seasons. Fans have to realize that we have to take chances on finding that up and rising football coach and if he has success, work to hold him as long as possible and then not be bothered if he leaves but left us having been successful (winning seasons, bowls, competing with peers-OM, UK, Arkansas, USCe).Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyDog
Any marked improvement from year 1 to year 2 at Mississippi and Oklahoma?Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
Actually went down about a TD per game from year 1 to year 2 at OM, but went up almost 10 pts from year 1 to year 2 at OUQuote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Looking at this, 28 per game in sec play would be good.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
My biggest concern is that yeah- we will play fast and have some guys on offense. Offense has been totally rebuilt from 2 years ago when it was Airbone. But:
We dont have the dudes defensively. By playing fast we are going to make our defense play more plays. We'll get worn down. We'll get injured. We'll have guys playing on D that just arent mid-level or better SEC guys in the 4th Q. The worry is alot of late collapses or pull aways in games.
Yep. Better outscore people.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Goldendawg again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldendawg
I actually agree with you. I never Liked Jackie and never will.Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyDog
I?m a little gun shy on predictions this year due to being too optimistic last year and because I remember how our last up and comer offensive genius HC hire went. With that said, last year?s sorry af team won 5, and I refuse to believe we?ll be worse this year. Average 33ppg and just have an okay defense, we will hit 6 or 7 wins.
So just avg 33 ppg, which would've been good for 3rd in the conference last year, with a much tougher schedule. Going to be a hell of a lot tougher than it sounds. Doable? Maybe. But far from any type of certaintyQuote:
Originally Posted by hailmari
With Transfer portal no one really knows/
I agree. Leach threw the ball, but it was still ball control and a slow offensive tempo which allowed the D to rest. If Lebby plays tempo, you can put the D back on the field quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Do you realize how hard it will be to avg 33? I think 26-28 range is realisticQuote:
Originally Posted by hailmari
I agree with you, not sure what it has to do with my comment though. I thought it was obvious tounge in cheek because 7-8 wins is a pipe dream for this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyDog
The thing is we don't always have to play at Nascar speed. If we have a lead I'm sure we'll slow it down some and run the ball late.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
That was Ole Miss's game plan for years. Strike quick and fast and build a 14-21 point lead. And then try to build on to the lead as much as you can and hold on for dear life. As you know teams can get out of sorts if they get down quickly.
And I'm not saying you're wrong. I remember Ole Miss/LSU 2022 where Ole Miss got out to like a 21 point lead I think it was and then ended up getting completely blown out. I think they even led at halftime. The thing about that is though even if you lose, losing 56-28 seems to create a perception that you are a better team than had you lost 56-7. The reality is LSU was at home, had superior talent- they just had to adjust after they got punched in the face. Sometimes Ole Miss holds on for dear life and it goes their way too.
I know when Lebby was at Oklahoma they got into several shootouts because their defense wasn't all that great. So it's something he is used to dealing with.
The secondary is the biggest surprise of camp so far.
Mario Craver is going to be a name for everyone knows by the bye week
Word from camp is that offense is looking terrible because the quarterbacks can't complete a pass. Have a buddy that works closely with the team and he said Weir who I am not even sure is on scholarship was the only QB completing even simple passes. I am hoping that it is just early and they are getting the scheme together but that for sure does not sound promising.
There is a rumor that he has recruited the male cheerleaders to lift out receivers like they do the female cheerleaders so they can catch the passes being thrown their way.
Good surprise or bad surprise?Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
Ha! Success by this secondary means the offense sucks in the passing game. Unless you mean the secondary is making great tackles 15 yards downfield.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brobi-wan
Added since this is about predictions
16-0 with our first Football NC since 1941!!!!
That could also mean our passing game sucks...Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
Sorry for the negativity
Shapen looked pretty accurate and smooth during the Spring game. Have we regressed that much in 4 months?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPDawgs
Having watched the spring game I do not believe a word of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPDawgs
Rosebowl says we will have some surprises. Defense not as bad as everything thinks. He never mentioned anything about an offensive cluster**** going on. He said 6-6 is a real possibility but everyone needs to tone down the 8-4 or better talk on some of the message boards.
If we win 8 games then Lebby will be the UNQUESTIONED SEC coach of the year and probably national coach of the year. It would also mean Shapen stayed healthy and played out of his mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
Agree, even if we win every game we play against unranked teams we would only be 6-6. All of other 6 opponents are in the Top 20 of the AFCA Coaches preseason poll.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve