The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

We definitely have slowed this down a whole lot as a country. Credit needs to be given that we've gotten our heads out of our asses and are starting to see the effects of social distancing. Still, crossed into .1% of the country *PROVEN* infected with this. About 3% of that subset dead. Figure as it goes we'll see slightly better results.

The exponential rate of growing is finally starting to hit its wall. Logarithmically we are starting to see this flatten. My fear was that we wouldn't see that until we broke the 1 million infected mark. Hopefully this continues to be the case and flattens more.

Updating my prediction, i think this will have about a 1.75% death rate among proven cases w/ hopefully no more than 2% of the country proven infected. (That would be only around 100k deaths) That would be an astounding recovery that we made from where we were looking at a few weeks ago. Hopefully people understand this as proof social distancing works and that it helped save lives. These next two months are going to be rough. Let's see if we can keep it up.

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I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.

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I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******

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I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

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Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?

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I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

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Just giving you a hard time dude cause ... you're so sensitive about it LOL. I think it's serious shit and would be more serious without social distancing. I feel a lot for those folks in NY ... I do. Would 2 or 3 mill die tho ... kinda skeptical on that one but it's probably better off to be safer than sorry. Especially now that we've started down this path. Unless of course you can't eat or put a roof over your head and your kids' too after this is all over ... I feel a lot for those folks too.

Trump does some things I like, and some things I don't. Relative to this tho ... he has some tough trades he has to make while listening to experts who are still grasping at the severity of the situation themselves every single day. And he's not doing a bad job of that. Part of the reason he changes his tune every day is cause they keep changing their tune.

EVERYONE was wrong back in January. Fauci, Pelosi, Cuomo, the NY mayor, the Mich gov ... etc. But I don't hold it against them cause ... no one really knew at that time. The only ones that were smart are the senators and congressmen who made several mill by getting out of the stock market. I do hold that against them.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.

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OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.

Oktibbeha county with its first death. It was an 89 year old woman.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.

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I'm pretty sure the best case scenario has always been 100k dead and we'll get there. ~1200 dying each day currently, that number will continue to grow before it plateaus and slowly drops.

(And only a fraction of a percent of our population has been infected so far)

Guys I went to town (Collins) yesterday to get gas in jugs for mower, four wheeler, etc.... I did everything u are supposed to do. I wore a cheap mask, stayed way away from people, and wore latex gloves when using gas nozzle and keypad. The gas pumps were very busy. I had to wait and there were people pulling up when I left. I WAS THE ONLY PERSON DOING ANY OF THIS!!!!! Not 1 damn person was wearing gloves or using sanitizer that I saw!!!!! People looked at me like I was an alien.

IHME now predicts 81,766 deaths (range is between ~50k - 136k) in US by aug 4th. It predicts 237 deaths (range is between 175 and 325) in miss by aug 4th.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated

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That is not what the death numbers in Italy and Spain are showing. Even adjusting for the COVID deaths, the number of deaths has doubled vs the standard weeks. It may not be "Vivid" deaths, but those unable to get treatment due to covid. (I.e., a heart attack unable to get an ICU, or scared to go to the DR due to Covid)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll

COVID-19 Testing
Statewide Testing Summary

COVID-19 testing providers around the state include commercial laboratories and the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC). Combined with testing done by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory, the figures provide a complete picture of all Mississippi testing.

Combined testing totals (MSDH, UMMC and commercial testing providers) as of April 5, 2020.
Total individuals tested by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory 6,309
Total individuals tested by other providers 14,061
Total individuals tested for COVID-19 statewide 20,378
Total individuals tested positive for COVID-19 out of that total statewide number 1,738

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Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Guys I went to town (Collins) yesterday to get gas in jugs for mower, four wheeler, etc.... I did everything u are supposed to do. I wore a cheap mask, stayed way away from people, and wore latex gloves when using gas nozzle and keypad. The gas pumps were very busy. I had to wait and there were people pulling up when I left. I WAS THE ONLY PERSON DOING ANY OF THIS!!!!! Not 1 damn person was wearing gloves or using sanitizer that I saw!!!!! People looked at me like I was an alien.

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Where I work they are handing out masks like candy if you want them. Maybe 200 people here. I've seen 3 other people wearing masks.

You really can't go by county numbers concerning safety from Covid-19. Unfortunately in the next day or so (probably tomorrow) there will be another county, which most would call having a minimal number of positive cases (less than 5 and none LTC currently), which will be listed on the MSDH website as having one LTC facility with an outbreak. It is real scary for all of us but especially so concerning these LTC facilities.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Where I work they are handing out masks like candy if you want them. Maybe 200 people here. I've seen 3 other people wearing masks.

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Wow. People are still not doing their part.

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

I agree. We really don't know how many people have had either no symptoms or mild symptoms and treated it on their own (with no medical visit or consultation), and therefore the State Health Departments and the CDC would not be aware that they even had the virus.

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Millions

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

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This is bullshit. you don't get extra credit for being chicken little. There is a lot of uncertainty in these types of decisions that make being "right" more or less impossible absent some blind luck. We still don't know, but there's a good chance we are going to find out that our policies made a bad situation a good bit worse. And saying "well at least we did something" isn't helpful to the people that are devastated or even dead b/c people freaked out.

Fauci now stating that he thinks it will become seasonal.

I guess we will have to shut down America forever...******************

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Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us

I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.

Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)

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Have you saw the latest projections?

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Originally Posted by Dawgology

Fauci now stating that he thinks it will become seasonal.

I guess we will have to shut down America forever...******************

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Good. That means that this will be a one time deal.**

I went to a small engine repair shop in Smith county today. Had to get mower blades. As best I could tell, there were 5 employees and at least 5-7 customers. Not a single glove, face mask, or sanitizer being used that I could see. If it doesn’t kill a bunch more Mississippians, it’s due to dumb luck. Certainly not because we all did our part.

On the flip side , I have malaria pills from my time in Africa. Still have a Z pack, and a vial of ivermectin for heart worm treatment on my dogs!! Seems I have all the treatments covered!!!

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Originally Posted by Dawgology

Fauci now stating that he thinks it will become seasonal.

I guess we will have to shut down America forever...******************

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Fauci kinda pissing me of a little. Why not use hydroxycloriquine with z-pac if you're very ill?? All this bullshit about double blind studies or controlled studies in this scenario is crap. Trump is spot on saying if someone develops pretty serious symptoms then use it. Not sure folks should necessarily use it in advance of that but ... I think they do use it in advance in high malaria regions of the world.

I also HAVE NEVER understood telling and emphasizing to folks to NOT wear a mask. It probably will keep you from getting it where the air isn't saturated with the virus, but it certainly wouldn't hurt either way. It's bullshit that Fauci and the Surgeon General both advised so strongly against wearing a mask.

Sometimes ... very smart people are not extremely practical.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

Fauci kinda pissing me of a little. Why not use hydroxycloriquine with z-pac if you're very ill?? All this bullshit about double blind studies or controlled studies in this scenario is crap. Trump is spot on saying if someone develops pretty serious symptoms then use it. Not sure folks should necessarily use it in advance of that but ... I think they do use it in advance in high malaria regions of the world.

I also HAVE NEVER understood telling and emphasizing to folks to NOT wear a mask. It probably will keep you from getting it where the air isn't saturated with the virus, but it certainly wouldn't hurt either way. It's bullshit that Fauci and the Surgeon General both advised so strongly against wearing a mask.

Sometimes ... very smart people are not extremely practical.

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I think they probably didn't recommend wearing a mask because people would freak out and try to buy up all the masks that the health care workers so desperately needs on the front line. I may be wrong, but everything is still a guessing game right now, and I agree on your comment about Dr Fauci. I actually listen more as to what Dr. Deborah Birx says.

This is from several days ago, but it is a pretty informative video with Dr. Jay Bhattachary being interviewed.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His background is as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. Some of this interview (March 27) is defending what he said in the Wall Street Journal (March 24th). He was also predicting the death rate to be lower than projected by the Washington Health experts at that time. His prediction was more in line with what they are predicting now.

"Questioning Conventional Wisdom in the COVID-19 Crisis, with Dr. Jay Bhattachary"




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UO3...0#action=share

I love watching the slow turn on Fauci. 99% of doctors would agree with the premise of what he has been saying for the last month, so I'm not really sure what people want him to say. How is he supposed to know exactly how this will turn out? Its a new virus and a situation the modern world has never seen before.

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

I think they probably didn't recommend wearing a mask because people would freak out and try to buy up all the masks that the health care workers so desperately needs on the front line. I may be wrong, but everything is still a guessing game right now, and I agree on your comment about Dr Fauci. I actually listen more as to what Dr. Deborah Birx says.

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Agree on Birx too. She's the most practical health advisor that Trump has IMO.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/mississip...-holding-hands

Onion cutting article.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

Agree on Birx too. She's the most practical health advisor that Trump has IMO.

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She seems to me to relate to the general public better. Even when she has not so good news to relay.

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Originally Posted by chef dixon

I love watching the slow turn on Fauci. 99% of doctors would agree with the premise of what he has been saying for the last month, so I'm not really sure what people want him to say. How is he supposed to know exactly how this will turn out? Its a new virus and a situation the modern world has never seen before.

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He's the fall guy plain and simple. Everything will be blamed on him and the rest of the government will come out looking squeaky clean to gullible America.

@msstate7

Update on the Sweden vs Norway thing, Sweden had 114 deaths in the last 24 hours. Norway has 83 total deaths.

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Originally Posted by hacker

@msstate7

Update on the Sweden vs Norway thing, Sweden had 114 deaths in the last 24 hours. Norway has 83 total deaths.

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Be interesting if they change course or ride it out.

What's Sweden's other border country (Denmark) doing?

Death rate for the 3:
Denmark: 127 per million
Finland: 6 per million
Sweden: 59 per million

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Be interesting if they change course or ride it out.

What's Sweden's other border country (Denmark) doing?

Death rate for the 3:
Denmark: 127 per million
Finland: 6 per million
Sweden: 59 per million

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Denmark has a policy similar to Norway, but I'm seeing 35 per million. I think you saw the 127 in the wrong column.

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Originally Posted by hacker

Denmark has a policy similar to Norway, but I'm seeing 35 per million. I think you saw the 127 in the wrong column.

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You're correct, serious condition. Thanks

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Be interesting if they change course or ride it out.

What's Sweden's other border country (Denmark) doing?

Death rate for the 3:
Denmark: 127 per million
Finland: 6 per million
Sweden: 59 per million

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I thought all those places were the same country**

Hypertension most common pre-existing condition among LA deaths from covid19. Adding up the percentages of pre-existing conditions that are listed, you get 232.7; obviously, many have a few of the conditions.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...m_campaign=snd

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Hypertension most common pre-existing condition among LA deaths from covid19. Adding up the percentages of pre-existing conditions that are listed, you get 232.7; obviously, many have a few of the conditions.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...m_campaign=snd

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I suspect a huge percentage of those with hypertension are diabetic or obese or both. Be interested to see how many deaths involve people that had hypertension but no other serious underlying condition.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

I suspect a huge percentage of those with hypertension are diabetic or obese or both. Be interested to see how many deaths involve people that had hypertension but no other serious underlying condition.

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The number that jumps out at me is African Americans account for 70.5% of the deaths. Anyone know the % of the population African Americans make up in LA?

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Originally Posted by msstate7

The number that jumps out at me is African Americans account for 70.5% of the deaths. Anyone know the % of the population African Americans make up in LA?

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Assuming you mean Louisiana and not Los Angeles, New Orleans is about 60% Black, and the state is about 33% (according to the Census Bureau).

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Originally Posted by msstate7

The number that jumps out at me is African Americans account for 70.5% of the deaths. Anyone know the % of the population African Americans make up in LA?

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Coronavirus just tweeted a picture of a noose.**

Too soon?