Our best path to a regional is with a new staff next season
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Our best path to a regional is with a new staff next season
Our best path is to fire Lemonis tomorrow, be a little better with the interim and sneak into a Regional as a 3 this year, and then dominate next year with a new coach.
Our only path is tow get to the tourney championship game.
A loss to them- assuming we take of business the rest of the time which is a big assumption- would be devastating to our RPI. Probably enough to warrant keeping MSU out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
I don't either. Our other problem is Auburn is really the only other top 20 RPI team we play so we really don't have a lot of opportunities to make a jump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
I'm not sure that 14 would get us in either to be honest. Will probably depend on how we do in the SEC Tournament.
13 SEC wins and we are in a Regional. This isn’t hard.
Can we get to 13? I don’t know
It is hard. Looking over the last decade, 13-17 teams only make it about half the time, and when they do, they usually have better RPIs than we do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re inQuote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Last year all 5 13-17 SEC teams had RPIs in the top 30. They didn't get picked solely because of their records, they got picked because of their entire resumes. Our RPI and entire resume won't be nearly as good if we get only finish 13-17.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Am I saying we definitely won't make it we're 13-17? No, I think we could sneak in depending on how soft the bubble is, but I kinda doubt we would. At the very least, there's no reason at all to insist that we will. The committee arbitrarily picks different criteria to matter more or matter less every year. It's impossible to ever be super confident about any bubble team.
13 wins won't do it if 3 of those are vs MissouriQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
13 wins and we are in. Book it
Not with MU having to be 3 of those especially if they are 0-27 going into seriesQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Book it
Paradoxically, 13 wins won't do it if we lose 1 or more games to Missouri eitherQuote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
This. And our problem right now is RPI. Conference expansion probably hurts us in this instance because usually the last week of the season we're playing a team with a RPI of 30 or higher. Mizzou's RPI is 153 as I type this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
So it's a double edged sword because yeah losing kills you but winning doesn't really help us much either.
We really need to get hot this week because Auburn's RPI is 4. If we win a couple of games and the Governor's Cup we could make a jump and easily get in the 30's maybe low 20's. And I may be a bit conservative there in that estimate.
Sit back and watch
Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle
People were saying 6-12 Texas wasnt going to make the NCAA Tourney in basketball- yet they did. Baseball will follow the same path
The same path?? You're not even making a parallel argument! Put a little more effort into your posts!Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Texas basketball was a different path. You would cite them as an example if you were arguing that we could still get selected this year at 12-18 (or 10-20 if you want to line up the percentages exactly). Texas had a decent enough NET but a bad conference record.
What you should be saying is "A lot of people thought Vanderbilt (NET 48) wouldn't make it in basketball, but I knew they would because 8-10 has generally been good enough lately" - that's what fits what you're trying to argue.
You know we've all hit rock bottom when I have to correct people's arguments against my own points here...
Lemonis has a better chance of getting in after 13 drinks at Rick's than with 13 wins in conference, because our schedule sucked. We got gifted a good schedule and blew it.
If our RPI ends up in the 30's- then yeah.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Really depends on the combination of the 13 wins. Like 13 wins with a sweep of Mizzou probably gets us in but if we lose a game to Mizzou then probably not.
We have RPI 4, RPI 22 for four games, RPI 30, and RPI 153 left in conference play. Other than the Governor's Cup our OOC opponents RPI is really bad so we are essentially playing Mizzou 5 x. Right now we're at 43 in RPI.
In other words again- IF we're going to make a move it HAS TO BE now. And we also have no margin for error for a "that's baseball" game against Mizzou, Memphis, or North Alabama.
What if we win 13 conference games, but lose all remaining non-conference games and our first game in the SEC tourney?Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Mingione just won a series with the vols. and we have lemoms
More than likely we'll need 14 wins. Our non-conference is holding us back. We probably have a better chance to win the tournament than get to 14 wins.
1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou
That's the path.
I think this is correct and I see no way this happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I see 11-19 SEC.
If Hungate is out, we have a huge void in the pen.
Yeah we cooked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancho
Although, we've been cooked with or without Hungate.
I hate it for him though if it's something serious.
This is in no way as straightforward as you say. RPI matters a ton on those 13 in teams and we most likely don?t get there on RPI. Auburn helps and that is about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
We have a better chance sweeping every series left than winning the SEC tournament. If we did win our first two games, we would have our Sunday guy vs Friday guy of a top 4 seed. We then have Noah Sullivan vs the Saturday guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by sleepy dawg
Then probably someone like Charlie Foster or Dane Burns vs a Sunday guy. Then whoever has an arm left vs a midweek guy.
As bad as Missouri has been in conference play, I have no doubt that we lose at least 1 to them. I don't think this team has the coaching or mental ability to sweep an SEC team. I think we can take 1 against Auburn, 1 against UK, 2 out of 4 against Ole Miss and 2 of 3 from Missouri. That is best case based on what I have seen of this team. I see 11-19 or 12-18 at this point. I guess the one positive from that is we will get a new staff and be able to reset.
Do we? LOL he hasn't been great. That pen is plenty deep & plenty short on talent. We knew there was a chance that would be the case and it's turned out to be true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancho
So you're saying the season is over?Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Correct.
This may be the most win-win situation I've ever seen as a state fan. We win either way here.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I could argue barely sneaking in a tournament, quickly getting bounced, and getting stuck with Lemon would be considered a "lose" situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowbell
Get queasy reading that scenarioQuote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
Missouri will win the series. 2-1Quote:
Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG
Day drunks are funQuote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
Our national championship team lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou AT HOME. And Bednar was lit up. They've had our number the last few years for whatever reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Oh I know- but it was a different team. That team won 8 SEC games. This one really has a good shot at 0-30. They are rarely competitive. And if you have watched our team this season- we will hit score alot of runs vs Mizzou. We hit mediocre pitching very well.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
If only I drank......Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Yep. Watch it happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve