We don't necessarily need another SS. We're good there between Mershon and possibly Kupp, assuming Larry comes back.
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We don't necessarily need another SS. We're good there between Mershon and possibly Kupp, assuming Larry comes back.
There is a massive difference in saying "we probably would have won some more games if we'd cut down on the walks" and putting a definite number like "5 more wins" on it. The first is probably true, the second appears to just be pulled out of your ass. Again, I'm not even saying it's too high - maybe we would've gotten more than 5. I just don't like it when people pull numbers out of thin air and try to pass it off like a mathematical analysis. Stay qualitative only unless you're showing your work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
On top of that, your assertion is vague. Are you saying that we win 5 more if 25% of our walks turn into strikeouts, or just that 25% of them aren't walks and become a mixture of hits and outs of all types?
Im guessing math and/or science was your favorite subject growing up??Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
If you walk six per 9 innings and people hit 215 against you, you probably throw 6 innings and give up 2 or 3 runs per outing. Like a Cole Gordon, you can still have a nice career.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
If you walk six per 9 innings and people hit 350 against you, then you are Enema, and you implode within an inning.
It's the WhIP equation that influences the total impact.
How about we lower our ERRORS while we are at it. That should be good for what 2-3 more conf wins. And, I pulled this from between my ears not my ass. 🤣
We eliminated a huge number of errors with two players gone. That's already been handled.Quote:
Originally Posted by TALL DAWG
Errors magically decrease with less free passes as wellQuote:
Originally Posted by TALL DAWG
Errors compound free passes if they could have led to DPs or even just force outs. But even with all those errors, earned run averages were atrocious, especially in SEC play. Look at runs allowed per game instead of just ERA. Probably nearly another 1/2 run per game allowed. Not all our loses weee by 10 runs. We had several 1 run and 2 run losses. Eliminate errors and walks and there is your statistical proof. Unless or course you want to cut our opponents errors and walks out too. Then it is a wash.
What?s the latest on Montgomery? Steve put an update up on the 247 board a few hours ago.
I wouldn't trade our position with any other school right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by LibraryDawg
NoiceQuote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
This. Getting close to closing this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
I've been very negative and will give my honest opinion and "show my work", if you will:
Defense: No doubt we improve at 3B because the Transfer has good stats. But SS? There's nothing to say Cupp will start or can play D in the SEC. He's highly rated but that's off potential, not day 1 polished abilities. Mershon was pretty bad at SS last year, will probably only be marginally better. Highfill got better as the year went on and will be better than last year's stats imply. Hines needs to work on his glove; there's a reason we kept putting Hancock over there. OF is pretty easy to play and I doubt we have much dropoff or improvement there. My bet overall: we go from an F to a C-. From 14th to say, 10th, give or take.
Offense: The 3B transfer is better than Alford for sure, but not a stud. Hit .300 vs much worse pitching than the SEC, lets be generous and say he hits .290 here. Lets assume marginal improvement for the returners: Highfill, Hines, Jordan, Mershon, Larry. The big losses are Clark (our best hitter in SEC play) and Ledbetter. I do NOT buy for one second that Hujesak -who was not a good hitter before State and hit .227 last year- will be able to replace either of those guys. Even assuming a 50 point jump and he's a downgrade. At the other OF spot, it's undeniable it's a "big Portal transfer or bust" situation. We either loose 40 points of hitting at that spot or we improve it by 10 if we get Montgomery. My Bet overall: We go from a C (9th in the SEC in scoring) to either a C+ (8th-7th) or a B (6th-5th) depending on transfers.
Pitching: Last year we sucked. We lost our 7 most reliable innings a weekend (Cade and Hunt), and we were about 10 innings short of pitching in the first place. So, 17 innings of pitching - 7 = 10 innings of solid arms returning between Dohm and Nixons 5 innings a weekend and Tappers 1 (if we're being generous to Tapper), and 4 total solid innings combined from Loo, Holcombe, Davis, Hardin, Siary a weekened. If your ERA is over 7, YOU ARE NOT PROVIDING SOLID INNINGS! Do these guys have the ability to turn into contributors? YES! But were they last year? NO! Yes they occasionally got through a clean inning, but more often they got shelled. To help us next year they have to be able to at least reliably give you something before getting shelled.
So, first up the returning solid guys (Dohm and Nixon and Tapper). Lets say they get a little better and are able to give us an extra inning each, 9 total. Next, we have the injured guys we get back: Loftin, Auger, and SImmons. Hard to judge. 2 haven't pitched in a while and the 3rd we've never seen vs SEC hitters. Lets say 2/3 turn out solid, 1 gives us 4 innings a weekend as a Sunday starter, the other 2 in relief. Not counting Pico Kohn because it sounds like his timetable is too late. That's 6 innings, we're up to 15. Then, the transfers: the Miami guys looks like he can give us 6 decent (ERA of 5ish) innings a weekend. Montgomery is touted as a 2 way player but he pitched 12 innings last year with an ERA of 15- he'd be irrelevant. Up to 21. We REALLY need Holman to join this group. For the most controversial group, the unreliable returners: Loo, Holcombe, Siary, Davis, Forsythe, Hardin. Siary had the best ERA of 7.07. DO these guys have talent? Yes. Did we upgrade at PC? 100% yes. Does it take more than 1 year of coaching to take a 8+ERA guy and turn him into a sub 5 ERA guy? Also yes. We just don't have much time to improve this group. For the sake of math lets say 3/6 take 2 steps forward and they give us 7 innings a weekend, the other 3 only take 1 step forward and remain useless.
We're up to 28 innings. Sounds ok right? Well, no. Not yet. We have midweeks, but also pitchers get injured. Last year we got lucky and only really lost Garman and Loftin, maybe 6 innings total of pitching. Year before we lost Simmons, Auger, Pico, and of course Sims. Probably 10-11 innings of our best pitching. Lets say '24 falls in the middle and we loose 8 innings of arms, that brings us to 20 innings of pitching and we still need to play in the midweek. We can really see how Holman's 6 innings of well above average pitching can make or break this staff.
Still, 20 or 26 innings of pitching (depending on Holman) is better than last year's 17 I estimated above. I also think Parker will be better than FOx at timing when to pull guys, go out to settle them down, and CALL PITCHES! My god Fox was awful at that. Probably lost .5 ERA in gameday coaching alone. So My complete guess is that our pitching goes from a F to either a C- (10th in the SEC) or a B- (7th), depending on Holman or alternative Friday starting transfer.
Overall? I bet we are a 2 seed somewhere. Loose in the regional because Lemo can't foster a culture of leadership among the players so they clam up under pressure.
Mershon was good at SS. He got hit with some errors at 3B but was at almost .900 fielding anyway coming off injury. You have no idea about Cupp. Hines was coming off a back injury.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
Montgomery will more than cover for Clark. Hujsak is hitting it in summer ball. Holman and Ligon are better at two spots than we had in rotation last year. It's lose, not loose.
Lololol, thank you, Cooter. I was wondering if it was just me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Cupp is really good defensively
As others have said- we are in a good spot. He and Burns have buddied up and talked of playing together- but he and Hines have been buddies awhile and want to play together. We are working hard to make it happen. We land Monty and we have made the team better thru the portal and crootin. Then need the freshmen to grow up some and play to their talent as Sophs this SpringQuote:
Originally Posted by BigDawg81
Yeah Cupp can play D just needs to develop the bat. Fortunately he wont have alot of pressure as a true freshman and can spot start at SS and 3B.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
I’m sorry, but this is all nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer
We scored the 10th most runs in the conference, and you think if we also give up the 10th fewest, we win 16 games? So better than average by being clearly worse than average at both?
The best predictor of future results is run differential, not wins. And what people fail to realize is that our win total was actually high given our run differential. We had the worst in the league, worse than OM and WAY worse than anyone not OM, Missouri and UGA included. If we played the year all over again, we were more likely to have fewer wins than more or even the same number.
If we magically gave up 2.5 fewer runs/game, we would have still had a RD of -28. That would have been 11th in the conference, evenly between Missouri and A&M. So you’re probably talking 12 wins, not 16.
You think we could have scored the 10th most runs, given up the most, and still won 14 games? That is just insane. This is the definition of homerism. Some are just not willing to see just how bad we were last year. We need to be vastly better, not just a little better here and there. We need an entire overhaul, we were beyond awful.
Run Differential is numerology. After a certain point, it is more a proxy for a lack of depth or a strategic marshalling of forces.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
You get beat 26 to 3, that has nothing to do with the next game. Florida beat LSU 24 to 4, that had zero to do with how game-3 is played. UF did not win the series 31-26 by Run Differential. Jack Leiter and Vandy beat MsState 8-2 in game-1, Lemonis kept arms fresh for Game-2 and Game-3. Pitching is an independent variable in baseball that other sports do not share.
MSU has been consistently mid-pack in hitting, even in 2022 with 9 wins, basically similar per game production to 2021 in a championship. To get back to decent, just need to pitch decently, that's the biggest issue, to at least making Hoover.
Also, it's rare for the SEC only stats to have the same "best" pitching and "best" hitting on the chart outside of Vandy with their Recruiting prowess and depth. Everybody else is playing with sharp A, B, and C options. This year the best hitting was Kentucky and the best pitching Alabama, neither was a player for SEC champ or making Omaha. 2023, LSU was above average hitting and about average pitching, champ, with an invincible ace. 2022 OM was below average hitting and average pitching, champ, getting hot at the end. 2021, MSU was average hitting (same hitting and fewer runs than this year) and 3rd in pitching, Champs.
Summary: everybody else got a lot better in 2022 & 2023, while MSU stayed relatively the same as they were in 2021 except in pitching. Pitching in 2022 was bad because of injuries.
Pitching in 2023 was bad because of bad coaching And injuries.
Simply improve pitching in 2024 and we at least catch up to everybody else in the middle and that will be Regional Level talent.
Can?t wait.
Depends on what we land in the portal. If we get Montgomery he will help in the OF and potentially on the mound as well. As it is we've simply filled our holes for the most part outside of getting an elite Friday night starting pitcher. Of course, we're still working on the portal at this time.Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainObvious
Again- I don't think people really fathom just how bad we were on the mound. So a lot of fans have assumed that our pitchers just suck. It was really an issue of the pitchers being asked to pitch in a way a lot of them could not, leaving pitchers in way too long, and just not developing them as individual players. I'm not sure how we had a winning record- that's probably more of a testament to the talent we actually do have. Our pitching coach was essentially the equivalent of Peter Sirmon as a pitching coach. I think how we handled our staff may have contributed to some of the injuries we've had- not Tommy John- the ones where a guy is out for a couple of weeks here and there.
But if we get Montgomery to go along with Hines and Dakota and then add in a legit Friday night guy we're going to probably see a jump similar to what we saw from 2015 to 2016. And we could probably accomplish that by getting our team ERA on the season down to 5.00 which is not great. If Parker gets us in the 4's we're going to have a very good year. And that's really not a stretch at all.
This is going to sound crazy...Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
But in the fall and spring I would look to see if Cupp and Mershon could potentially play CF. Could be a good way to get both of them in the lineup at the same time and could potentially make us really good defensively if they can handle it.
Food for thought.
Lol I'm done with these homer takes. Ignore 3 years of college because of SUMMER BALL?? Amazing how our whole team battled injuries last year but you assume nobody will next year to make those individuals worse than they were this season. Montgomery would cover Clark, but who's covering Ledbetter?
I'm officially out yall want to see everyone through the most optimistic lense instead of what's likely to happen.
I hear ya! No way this team is improved unless we find 2 Paul Skenes.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
I think we will be better, but how much is the question. I can't see us being in the top six or so in the Sec, mainly because we have a Coach who drove the train off the cliff. Recruiting slipped big time and it showed as did with coaching decisions on and off the field. I'm pulling for us to be as good as Todd and several others predicting, but the Sec is very tough every year and right now we are at the bottom. I'm in a wait and show me what you got mode!
Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
I still feel the sameQuote:
Originally Posted by BigDawg81
Dont know anything about Montgomery buddying up with Burns, but heard back on Memorial Day weekend that he is really good friends with Hines, Highfill, and Jordan and he wants to come home. He wants protection in front and behind him in the lineup and we have that with Hines and Jordan.
We battled injuries? Nah, that was year before last. Stone is the only big injury we had. He could've given us innings. We've got Jordan and Montgomery along with Hujsack/Chance. That's two early round draft guys in the OF. There's no fall off there. If you're worried about the OF with Montgomery out there, I don't know what to tell you. Pitching and 3B were a much bigger problem. Even C was a bigger issue. Pitching is still to be determined and that's what holds it all together. Got to get Holman, Molina, or someone like that. Ligon is better than what we had. Loftin needs to win the 3rd spot. That's pretty damn solid.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
I would add Augur as a guy that was hurt who could have given us innings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
And I think we need Loftin to grow into a legit Saturday guy. He has the stuff. Ligon stuff is more that of a Sunday guy to me.
If the culture piece is right, we will have a chance to be good again in 2024.
We did battle injuries this past year. They were smaller, miss a start or 3 type injuries. Cade missed all of March; Gartman missed most of May; Nixon missed a week or two. I'm sure there were others that we knew less about. A lot of times the strain injuries are all about training (or lack there of) or poor mechanics not being adjusted. Missing time has a domino effect on the staff. Losing a guy to TJ hurts - but having a guy come up lame on a start day hurts just as much. How many weekends did we have a Friday start named and TBA filled in for the other 2 starts? That wasn't because Fox was being cagy, it's because we didn't know who would be available until the day of the game in many cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
People crack me up. Someone post that MSU will be 0-30 next year and show their "homework"Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
We had no more injuries than the next school. We just sucked. LSU had more injuries than us and they won the whole damn thing. We've gotten rid of about 50% of our errors, we're about to possibly upgrade our pitching in a big way. Those things alone will get us in post season.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
I'm no Lemonis fan, but he pulls that off, I'll give him props for getting big-time talent in here. It's in our best interests for him to turn this back around. If he doesn't, people know I'll blast his ass.
Loftin was our best Fr, gartman was honestly our 2nd best starter. Neither was pitching in SEC play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Aren't you literally the person on the previous page of this thread who said Hines D would get better because his back was hurt last year? Somebody listed that, sorry if it wasn't you. That's mostly what I was referring too as being an overly "homer" take; every team in the history of any sport has had at least one "back tweak" to deal with, so to act like Hines getting that squared away will fix the D is ridiculous because next year it'll be Larry or Highfill ect that gets dinged up.
Overall we did get pretty lucky with injuries last year, will probably have more next year.
Everybody has injuries. So we're not the only team that dealt with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
But I disagree that we were lucky with injuries. Stone and augur missed the whole year. They were 2 of our top 5 arms when they went down.
Cade and Nixon were our best two and both missed a third of the year, maybe more.
That doesn't include Pico and Nate Williams missing the whole year, both of whom we thought would be bullpen guys.
Then Dohm and Gartman both missed multiple weeks.
Coming up with absurd takes about how we aren't really going to be better is worse at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
You do you but it sounds like you're awfully nervous that you're going to be wrong about Lemonis.
Pretty much every TJ surgery means that pitcher will miss the next season. Since so many pitching injuries are TJ, I don't count it as out of the ordinary for a guy to miss an entire season. LSU and Arky lost guys early last year/right before the season and they won't pitch next year either, for example.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
We got lucky that our only TJ this season was Gartman, a veteran transfer that probably wasn't coming back anyway. Next year we probably get 1-2 TJs and another Loftin type non-TJ injury that still shuts him down all year. There's also ALWAYS multiple guys shut down a few weeks like you mention for Dohm and Nixon. It's just statistically what tends to happen.
In football we all recognize you need some depth because injuries happen, but in baseball we act like every injury is an anomaly that'll never happen again. Look around baseball- if you have a staff of guys throwing 92+ who did travel ball, there will be TJs. Stack depth accordingly before the season starts
Loftin did nothing in SEC play to say he was going to be great. He was our midweek guy. His walk numbers alone were poor. What was Gartman's ERA? Let's not pretend it was outstanding either. LSU lost pitchers. Had some other injuries too. They did fine. Plus, we took two of three from them at their place flipping around the rotation. This team had a terrible pitching coach problem. His talent evals were shaky and development poor. He's gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
The staff got lazy. But if they can get the players to correct some things and not 17 around, we're close to being a pretty good club. I'd say top 20 for sure with Montgomery and Holman. Probably to 15. If the FR advance as they should, we could be top 10 going into SEC play.
If you want to say a rash of injuries will kill us, fine. That's the case for most teams. There's no negatives otherwise minus questions about the FR. We'll see on those.
By damn, the Best Catcher in the Nation is in the Portal.
Malcom Moore of Stanford a Freshman All American, PAC-12 Freshman of the Year, and future top-10 pick.
MSU has a catcher, a Freshman, a Madison Central guy that could help MSU land Braden Montgomery. So, we are probably not in the mix.
Moore is a stud but we're full at C now. Somebody must have gotten to him. That would be a big money grab like LSU or somebody if I was guessing. He's from Cali, so seems odd. Maybe he's trying to get more from Stanford.