Yeah I like to equate Meteorology to theoretical physics. Except they can do small scale experiments, we cannot.Quote:
Originally Posted by RougeDawg
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Yeah I like to equate Meteorology to theoretical physics. Except they can do small scale experiments, we cannot.Quote:
Originally Posted by RougeDawg
Next time it rains I think I may have to reenact this scene.
http://static1.businessinsider.com/i...me-in-2013.jpg
Thanks The Ref. That's the best explanation I have yet seen. Also funny contrast with engineers. I have the same problems discussing politics with engineers. They are incapable of doing so. I usually clam up and change the subject when such an opportunity presents itself. Taught 'em in classes for years at State. Often brilliant folks -- just can't handle gray areas or uncertainty of any kind.
Latest GFS is now in. Not as promising as before, but not all is lost either.
Here is the latest precip graphic for 11/11. As you can see the rainfall totals are not as high as the previous run. That said, you don't need to get caught up in individual model runs but trends, and the trend is still showing rain in some shape, form, or fashion. What to watch the next 4-6 days is if this trend holds and it still shows rain. After that, if it still shows rain, you can start looking at forecast amounts. Another positive sign is that the GGEM model which had been showing this time period dry is now showing very substantial rain moving in with the 7:00am run. The other long range I have been watching, the CFS, has not updated for the 7:00am run yet. Still waaaaaaay too early to start dusting off the umbrellas, but am now at least cautiously optimistic.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps..._acc.us_se.png
This far out I'm just looking for the patterns present. It is somewhat encouraging that for now both the Euro and GFS are advertising a cut-off low forming around 9 days out in the east-central portion of the US. Cut-off lows (essentially, low pressure systems cut off from the jet stream) can be great drought relief because they move slowly and feature long-steady rainfall as opposed to a short burst of heavy rain. However, the exact location and movement of a cut-low low is difficult to forecast. Hoping for some return flow over the next week days to help produce quality rainfall for when/if the cut-off low arrives.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
Thanks for the input. Pleas keep us posted. Greatly appreciated.
Trends are continuing to show a shot at some much needed rain late next week. Here is the latest from the 7:00am GFS run. Two things have me cautiously optimistic. 1. This marks several runs straight of it showing rain during this time frame. and 2. we are now inside 240 forecast hours when models start to become at least a little more reliable.
The takeaway is this: Things are still trending toward the potential for some rain late next week. As of right now, don't get caught up on how much rain it is or is not showing for a particular area. The models are just doing good saying there will be rain. The accuracy of how much this far out is a roll of the dice. Getting rain out of this potential system is a roll of the dice for that matter, but starting to become a scenario where at least we may be using loaded dice.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps..._acc.us_se.png
Lol. My wife and I said the same thing. We are gonna walk outside and enjoy the rain!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
Form what I can tell, most engineers have a bad habit of wanting to have a complete and total understanding of the world around them. What we fail to grasp many times is that the world we live in has so many variables and complexities, that it is impossible for mear mortals to precisely understand and predict occurrences in even relatively simple systems. The best we can do is continuously learn and improve.
According to the National Climate Center, the drought will continue or worsen over the month of November. East Mississippi could be upgraded to the highest classification of drought "Extreme Drought" if relief is not found.
Not the best news to hear, but I try to pride myself on being brutally honest with everyone.
http://i.imgur.com/RGzcr.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Insane.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkman Turner Overdrive
I have come to the conclusion that I will be doing more deer hunting than duck hunting until at least mid to late December this sucks.
So when will the small cold snap hit this week?
Highs starting Friday should be in the low to mid 70's with a gradual warmup by early next week. Last I saw another stronger front is on tap for late next week that was showing even cooler air. Also the system we're desperately watching for some rain.Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Shit. Shit. Shit. Latest GFS coming now is showing that front next week to be dry. No rain. Before everybody else starts cussing, this is just one run and not a trend. It's also one of the less reliable run times. The 7:00am and 7:00pm runs use weather balloon data. The 1:00am and 1:00pm runs use assumptions and extrapolations. This is the 1:00pm run coming in now. Hopefully, the 7:00pm run is back to wet. It should be in around midnight. If I'm awake I'll check it out and see what it says.
Teeing off at Old Waverly at 10 on Friday. Weather good for light pants or still too warm? And how you think it will be temp wise watching the LSU bama game at tailgate?Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
Best guess now is about 63 both times would be a good bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Awesome. Can't wait for some fall weather. Whiskey time!!Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
One thing about models is this: Focus on trends, not individual runs. With that in mind, the GFS usually runs drier than other models. I'll take a look at some of the runs and figure out what kind of trend we've been looking at. But when you start talking about moisture, GFS is one of, if not THE, worst at trying to predict atmospheric moisture. That's not to discredit the GFS runs for rain, but if the GFS shows a lot of rain, then you're talking about a frog-strangler no matter how you look at it.
Okay. So looking at the models, it seems that the ECMWF has a pretty substantial system moving in with the front around Tuesday of next week. With that in mind, it'll be interesting to see how the other models handle this. The GFS, as Vegas said, is having this front be drier aloft than the ECMWF is suggesting. I would really like to see how the NAM initializes with this storm starting around Friday or so. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the week, but IF there was a good chance of rain, it'll be early next week.
ETA: Just looked at the GEM (Canadian) and it also shows a pretty heavy precip event next week, but a day or two after the ECMWF. Bringing better confidence to thoughts of at least some rain to cool us down a bit with this front. Take it for what it's worth.
Fingers crossed. Damn, meteorology is fascinating, and I don't give a damn if it is a true "hard" science or not. �� Thanks so much for the input, guys.
Very small things have very large impacts in the field of Meteorology. We will never learn everything concerning the atmosphere, but year after year we get better at our forecasts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Ref I appreciate yours and Vegas weather info. I find the weather fascinating and my youngest daughter is extremely into it. Appreciate y'all and keep bringing it!
If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming to?)
Haha. If that's the case, then you might as well just get a "POLAR VORTEX WATCH" thread going. I'm kidding. I AM COMPLETELY KIDDING. Do not do that. But we are definitely wanting to have this cool down sooner rather than later. You're about to have some very pissed off hunters soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Well well well, there is hope that we can get along after all!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
I'm a nice guy, truthfully. Just don't question my profession's status.Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
No problem with meteorologists from me. Now lawyers on the other hand...Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
No problem with meteorolists here either. If anything, it's the opposite. Having been involved in ballooning all my life and now training to become a balloon pilot, I rely on you guys more than the average person. Thanks for what you guys do!
GFS is still trying show little to no rain now. Really hoping it is wrong. What it is still showing is cooler weather coming in so that will be my focus this post. Here are the forecast temps for various times starting this weekend and into next week per the GFS.
1:00PM Friday
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...sfct.us_se.png
1:00PM Saturday (I have a hard time thinking it will be this cool, personally)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...sfct.us_se.png
Thursday November 10 1:00PM (Here is the possible big cooldown)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...sfct.us_se.png
Friday November 11 1:00PM
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...sfct.us_se.png
I was wondering why a thread on the weather had over 3000 hits...I quickly saw why. Geez...Was short pants given a timeout to go sit in the corner?
Thanks for all the info Ref and SVD.
Yeah he is out of reach until December.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
But I really do appreciate the kind words from y'all
As do I and I'm not even a meteorologist. Didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Had someone see my storm chasing decals on my truck the other day and made a comment about how boring things had to be for me now. Just had to shake my head and agree. Barely even any clouds to look at the past couple months.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Weather is one of the most talked about events we as humans indulge in. Our lives are generally dictated as to what the weather does each day.
Just did some quick research. Numbers are unofficial but are going to be pretty stinking close. if not dead on.
The last 75 days Starkville has only had 0.9" of rain. However, only 0.03" of that has fallen since 9/22...a span of 42 days and counting. That 0.03" came on 10/20. Areas to the east and west of Starkville saw some decent rains as a line moved through. It fell apart just west of Starkville and reformed around the Lowndes county line so your house may have seen more rain. If so, consider yourself fortunate. I had a cricket try to chirp last night on my patio but things are so dry the friction caused himself to spontaneously combust.
Heed all burn bans. A man in Montgomery county (Winona) died this past weekend because he ignored the burn ban and tried to burn off his field and then got caught up in the fire when it got out of control.
If you want a model to hang on to for hope next weekend, I give you the GGEM:
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps..._acc.us_se.png
How in the world would anyone think they could burn a field right now??? Sorry, but that was natural selection.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
When this front comes through, will we get into a more normal pattern? I'm still thinking about planting early next week.
Yeah, hard to feel sorry for the guy, but I do his family.Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
We may be getting into a more normal pattern temp wise, but rain wise I am still skeptical.
The following is me just surmising here and based on not much, but we are in a drought pattern which is in a feedback loop causing more drought conditions. IF we can ever get some rain and some soil moisture that might create a feedback pattern making rain more likely when the systems come through. If we can get one or two systems to actually produce some rain then that might be enough to break the drought pattern. But as of right now, the powers that be are thinking that drought conditions could easily persist through November.
The big question is..... how will the weather be November 14 when I'm camping out at the ABC store to get my bottle of Pappy? I get there at 5am..... I gotta know which carhartt to wear.