BJ with a leadoff triple to extend his career-high 11 game hitting streak.
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BJ with a leadoff triple to extend his career-high 11 game hitting streak.
Bj makes it 11-game hit streak with leadoff triple
Beat me to it. Gonna need some offense todayQuote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Oh yeah...but ya know....Pioneer says that we should get BJ out of the lineup because SABERMETRICS ARE NEVER WRONG!!!!!11!1!1!!Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Bj and Simmons say the hell with sabermetrics. Simmons RBI single
But his BABIP sucks!!!!!!!**
So BJ has a triple, 2 runs scored with one being from first base, been on base twice, and has an RBI today. And we've scored another 6 runs so far and still adding. But BJ has little bearing as to why the Braves are doing well right now.....
Bj then gets RBI on ss error and scores on Simmons double. Bj's speed coming into play
Using metrics only is dumb...completely ignoring them is dumb also but I think a lot more can be accomplished using the eye test and plain ol baseball knowledge vs. metrics only.
BJ is a perfect example...fredi saw that BJ brought some things to the table that could benefit the team rite now as a lead off hitter. Will it last? We'll see...but rite now this decision has been better than a decision based on metrics.
This game is the epitome of why BJ needs to be hitting lead off right now as opposed to 6th ahead of Chris Johnson. BJ's been on base twice of his three at bats. He's been driven in both of those times by Simmons, but Freddie Freeman also has 2 hits on the day as well. BJ IS providing protection for those two guys.
But what has Chris Johnson done today? 2 strikeouts. He's got a 3 times higher K rate than Simmons and you are seeing what Simmons and Freeman are able to get from the pitcher when BJ is on. Didn't apply so much in the 1st AB because BJ was on 3rd, but it played a part the 2nd time BJ got on. Got to love what the offense is doing right now.
I agree ... it's nice not to miss Bourne anymore
Well said and this has been mine and a few others point. Metrics can be a useful tool, but stats don't tell you everything. The eye test works and people who know baseball can use it. BJ has done great these past 11 games. Hell he took a FB first pitch of the game (like a lead off hitter should) that anywhere else in the lineup he probably swings and misses at. That shows me he's adjusted well to being a lead off guy and that he's confident he will be able to do something with a pitch later in the at bat even if it isn't that great of a pitch.Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless joe
10 runs scored during his 11 game hitting streak and his batting average is now up to .212. Slowly but surely he's getting things right. Hope it keeps up because he's been a huge catalyst for this offense these last 11 games.
This club's ability to manufacture runs has gotten so much better since bj went to leadoff. This team relied solely on the longball up until bj went to leadoff.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Good lord that was awful at bat. He's gonna be good for at least one of those a game still. But that was pretty horrible.
Christian bethancourt has been great since his call up. Really wish we had a dh when gattis gets back. I like Christian better behind the plate
Yeah that was badQuote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
When healthy this is more of an American League lineup. I'm with you, I would much rather Gattis DH and not have to catch, although Bethancourt still has a lot of learning to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Haha very true. I am a "baseball" fan in the sense. Not really bandwagon though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
A's take precedence of course.
Dodgers- provide late night west coast options(late games)..Love watching Kershaw and Puig.. Vin Scully
Angels- same thing.. West coast option.. Trout
Not Braves
Not really Nats
Marlins- connections to the organization
Astros- Love what and how they are building. Saber oriented. Try new things in farm system.
Not like I'm jumping on the Sox and Yanks or anything. Rooting interest for fantasy comes into play often.
Bj second straight game with multiple hits
Should have had an RBI too because I think La Stella should have been waived home. Got a chance for his 3rd run scored of the game if Freeman can come through here.
2 in a row. That's what I call a streakQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Giants set a new record for futility, they became the fastest team to lose a 9.5 game lead in the last 114 years of baseball and they set the new record by a WEEK. It only took the Giants 22 days to lose a 9.5 game lead. Fastest team before that was 29 days.
Well and an 11-game hit streak.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
It tells me that it is a very small sample size and to look at his career numbers, where he is a career .323 OBP from the leadoff spot, which will not cut it as a lead off hitter. His history also tells me that he is currently regressing towards his mean. He's had a very long stretch of being horrible that he is at least getting to the point where he is not so horrible, but he's still not a lead off hitter. His inability to get on base consistently will catch up with the team, and when that happens, I have little doubts that Fredi will not do what he should do and put Tommy La Stella in the lead off spot. Tommy had 5 at bats today. He's on base 4 times in those 5 at bats.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
The run expectancy of the line up that Freddie has put out there with a healthy Evan Gattis with Upton leading off is 4.032 runs a game. With La Stella leading off, Upton hitting 6th, and Simmons hitting 8th, the Braves run expectancy is almost .3 runs higher at 4.3 runs per game.
Have you seen how slow Fredi is to make the necessary changes, and even when he changes, he does something that is completely nonsensical like putting his worst two on base players at the top of the line up.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
You're eyes fool you, and people who use the eye test tend to see what they want to see, IMO.
The numbers do not lie. The number that correlates most strongly with runs scored is on base percentage, not how fast you can run when you are on base. The idea that the lead off hitter has to be a speed guy has been debunked by the numbers.
It's worked for nine straight wins so obviously SOMETHING is working.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
So, that's like a run every 3 games or so? That's almost a negligible amount.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
I have a new statistic that I just created. It's called run actuality. The Braves have actually scored 5.45 runs per game during BJ's time in the lead off spot and WITHOUT Gattis. So run expectancy doesn't mean squat right now. Will it at some point? Possibly. But right now it doesn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
The problem you statistics folks have is that you have the inability to step away from what should be happening or what is expected to happen and you can't look at the short term and what is ACTUALLY going on right now. Screw his career numbers and screw his career OBP. What RIGHT NOW tells me is that BJ has scored 10 runs during his 11 game hitting streak from the lead off spot. He's stealing bases, he's getting on base at a higher rate, and he's doing things to help the team, which before he was doing very little of. He's doing things at a productive level and the team is scoring runs because of it. That is indisputable. But you are telling me that I should look at run expectancy and change my line up during a 9 game winning streak??
No one is disputing that BJ is probably not an ideal lead off hitter the rest of the season, although he does have experience there and a level of comfort there. But right now he is productive from that spot in a way that he hasn't been productive in any other spot during his tenure with us. Fredi has used like 6 different lead off men this year, so I feel pretty confident he will change if BJ starts to regress, which is currently not happening yet. But if BJ has a total mentality change and decides to 100% embrace the role of a lead off guy, I think it's possible he could be successful there. He's not there right now, but I think he could get there.
Over the coarse of an entire seasons, that .3 runs comes out to be 49 runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Dan Uggla still holds a roster spot, making the Braves play with a 24 man roster while Phil Gosselin is tearing AAA up. Fredi is slow to make the moves he needs to make.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Jordan Schafer still has a roster spot while Todd Cunningham is a better hitter than both Jordan and BJ Upton at this point, but he's still in AAA because Fredi is slow to make a move.
How long did it take to get La Stella in the line up consistently? He should have been the starting 2B on opening day.
I expect better than this from the baseball expert.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Making moves between triple A and the majors is entirely different and has significantly more factors in play than making day to day lineup changes.
And saying for certain that Cunningham is a better hitter than Upton right now when Cunningham has a .178 BA in 73 career major league Spring Training at bats over 4 years tells and 2 hits over 8 career at bats for the Braves during the regular season me all I need to know about your objectivity and knowledge on the situation. That's a joke at best.
So in his last 11 starts Tommy Milone is 6-0 with 8 quality starts and an ERA of 2.65... Just optioned to AAA by Billy Beane after the trade. THATS how you don't just stick with what's working now and THATS why the A's have the best chance to win the WS under Beane this year while the Braves will collapse. You people loving BJ leading off now will have to wait even longer to see him replaced when he goes back to normal BJ because "remember the streak with him leading off, let's see if that comes back" will keep him at lead off while he struggles.
I haven't watched the Reds but maybe twenty games this year and Billy Hamilton has created more runs himself than I can count. Speed absolutely matters. A walk for him turns into a triple very quickly and it's no coincidence that Todd Frazier has suddenly become arguably the best 2 hole hitter in the NL. Frazier gets pumped fastballs so the catcher can have just a slight bit of chance to throw out Hamilton and Frazier ain't been missing many. I saw Hamilton tag up and score on a popup on the edge of the grass where the 2b plays. I had to watch it three times I couldn't believe what I just saw. Try to explain how speed doesn't matter when you are on base after watching this.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
http://youtu.be/apmxSKghfjQ
Unfortunately, this is likely what will happen. The Frediot will keep him there until the wheels fall off instead of making the proper move to prevent the wheels from falling off. It is just completely nonsensical to have BJ leading off and Tommy La Stella hitting 7th in the line up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
La Stella currently has a 0.7 WAR in 137 total plate appearances. BJ Upton has a 0.6 WAR in 200 more plate appearances.
A's going for it all this year after trading away their 2012 first round pick and 2013 first round pick. Russell is rated as high as the #3 overall prospect. I love the trade for the A's this year but a little confused by it when Samardijza wants to get his money cause the A's won't be giving him 160 million so they've basically given up two #1s for a shot to win the WS this year or next. Doubt they sign Hammel to an extension either but that might not matter. They look like the lead horse in the AL right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
The problem folks like you aren't getting is that last year wasn't anywhere close to the normal BJ. This year is much closer to the normal BJ and it's still way below his norm. He's a career .245 hitter that scores in the mid 80s runs per year and can steal a lot of bases. Never high RBI, but does have a high strikeout rate which sucks. So he's still not where he should be.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
What happens if he hits .235 this year which would still be his 2nd lowest BA of his career? He's at .214 right now. Is that impossible? Is it possible he's turned a corner? We keep him in the lineup and over the next 2 1/2 months he might could raise his BA 20 points? Means he's getting things done and will be averaging at least one hit a game. You do that in front of Simmons, Freeman, Upton, and Gattis and I think I will be ok with that.
Obviously this isn't going to continue at the pace it's going right now. But if BJ is able to cut his strikeouts down, shorten his swing, and be less reckless early in the count, he could do what I stated above. He's beginning to do some of that already and it's paying off. It's a wait and see thing, but I just understand some of you so opposed to us keeping BJ at lead off when it is clearly helping the team right now. As a baseball person, you should be able to see that what he is doing RIGHT NOW is helping the team score more runs.
Speed matters of course but not as much as on base in the lead off spot. More important than speed is actual base running ability. Adam Jones is known as a very good baserunner without racking up the SB that others do. SB% > number of bags stolen.. See Yasiel Puig