OT: Hurricane Matthew Thread

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09-30-2016, 08:40 PM
FleaFlicker

Following this thread. This storm is fascinating to watch. When do you think it will make that turn? Are you a believer of the Hebert Box?
09-30-2016, 08:44 PM
TheRef

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Do they build big hurricane shelters for the public?

No they don't. Not enough money to do so.
09-30-2016, 08:52 PM
TheRef

Quote:

Originally Posted by FleaFlicker

Following this thread. This storm is fascinating to watch. When do you think it will make that turn? Are you a believer of the Hebert Box?

It is already slowing down as it is finding the weak spot in the high pressure. It should really start moving north in the next 48 hours or so. The Hebert Box, while present, is only a tool in predicting the landfall possibility. Hebert even said himself that it is not a tried and true indicator that a storm will hit Florida. Basically the basis for the boxes is that the storms will miss Cuba on its way to landfall. The portion of Cuba that Matthew will have to travel through is pretty mountainous, it is also the largest land mass of Cuba it will have to go through. So Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.
09-30-2016, 09:05 PM
FleaFlicker

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRef

It is already slowing down as it is finding the weak spot in the high pressure. It should really start moving north in the next 48 hours or so. The Hebert Box, while present, is only a tool in predicting the landfall possibility. Hebert even said himself that it is not a tried and true indicator that a storm will hit Florida. Basically the basis for the boxes is that the storms will miss Cuba on its way to landfall. The portion of Cuba that Matthew will have to travel through is pretty mountainous, it is also the largest land mass of Cuba it will have to go through. So Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.

Thank you for that explanation. I haven't had time to look it up since i first saw it today. Fascinating stuff!!
09-30-2016, 09:11 PM
TheRef

Quote:

Originally Posted by FleaFlicker

Thank you for that explanation. I haven't had time to look it up since i first saw it today. Fascinating stuff!!

Constantly changing weather like that is quite fascinating. We're always trying to get better with track and intensity on tropical cyclones. The problem we are having is the fact that very subtle changes can dramatically change large systems like this.
09-30-2016, 09:57 PM
preachermatt83

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRef

Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.

Meh, It happens. :cool:
09-30-2016, 10:01 PM
starkvegasdawg

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.
09-30-2016, 11:06 PM
BeastMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.

I read it could be the worst storm in Jamaican history. Worse than Gilbert in 88. I don't remember that storm because i was a little guy but worst storm in 30 years don't sound good.
09-30-2016, 11:09 PM
TheRef

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeastMan

I read it could be the worst storm in Jamaican history. Worse than Gilbert in 88. I don't remember that storm because i was a little guy but worst storm in 30 years don't sound good.

Gilbert was only a Category 3 and landfall on Jamaica. Then Gilbert strengthened again to Cat 5 after passing Jamaica.
10-01-2016, 12:38 AM
InTheIttaBenaHotSun

Any chance we'll get some rain out of this storm? We really need some bad.
10-01-2016, 04:26 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by InTheIttaBenaHotSun

Any chance we'll get some rain out of this storm? We really need some bad.

Ain't looking good. If it makes its expected turn north we won't see any type of impact from it.
10-01-2016, 06:25 AM
oildawg

I'm in charge of offshore gas operations in LaGuajira district Colombia (Riohacha & Ballena). It's the northern tip of Colombia. So far, we've had a good bit of rain, some road flooding, but otherwise not much impact. Ready for it to turn north... But praying for the people of Jamaica.
10-01-2016, 06:27 AM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.

What was the one that went from nothing to a Cat 5 virtually overnight before striking Belize? That had to be the fastest strengthening storm ever on the Atlantic side.
10-01-2016, 07:23 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

What was the one that went from nothing to a Cat 5 virtually overnight before striking Belize? That had to be the fastest strengthening storm ever on the Atlantic side.

Mitch or Dean? Not sure.
10-01-2016, 07:33 AM
Dawgface

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34

Ain't looking good. If it makes its expected turn north we won't see any type of impact from it.

You guys need to put in an order for some rain. Dry as heck around here.
10-01-2016, 08:29 AM
starkvegasdawg

Hate to say it but none of the long term models are showing any rain. Next 10-17 days may be a little arid if things hold. At least your yard won't need mowing.
10-01-2016, 08:38 AM
Spiderman

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRef

You may want to watch out for Hurricane Matthew that's spinning south of Hispanola. He is a Category 3 Hurricane right now, and is expected to strengthen further before making landfall in Jamaica. Matthew is getting the benefit of untouched waters to build and intensify. Current tracks have Matthew missing the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cutoff Low Pressure center over the middle of the country. Now the model guidance does not have landfall coming to Florida currently, but this could change within the next 3-4 days depending on the track Matthew takes through Jamaica and Cuba. Needless to say, the whole Eastern seaboard needs to be watching this system closely.

https://i.gyazo.com/4498e1f132b9dd54...26b2528fc3.png

Need a decent tropical storm to come over my hunting land so I can plant some food plots
10-01-2016, 01:49 PM
TheRef

Latest cone of probability from NHC

https://i.gyazo.com/419222a464e09f8b...ecaee9fe0f.png
10-01-2016, 01:50 PM
starkvegasdawg

Latest update has it moving due south.
10-01-2016, 01:54 PM
TheRef

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34

Latest update has it moving due south.

I wouldn't trust the ECMWF right now due to the horrible initialization.

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