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The week before bj took over as leadoff the braves were 2-5 including getting swept by the phillies.Quote:
Originally Posted by FISHDAWG
Has the schedule been favorable? Yes, but good teams take advantage of stretches like this. The braves are 9-1 in last 10 and 11-3 in last 14 -- this is good no matter the opponents.
The 1st to 3rd argument is a strong one. I've also seen bj score on short flyballs. Bj's running ability is getting Simmons and ff fastballs too.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
The bolded is the number 1 key here. When BJ gets on in the 6 or 7 hole, he gives higher % of fastballs to guys toward the end of the lineup with lower averages. If I want someone on my team getting a higher % of fastballs, it's my 2 and 3 hole hitter, not my 7 and 8 hole guys.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Add the higher RBI chances in the 6 hole with his lower BA and in my opinion you just really limit his effectiveness. .8 runs scored per game during his 10 game hitting streak is pretty impressive and it would be pretty hard to convince me to change his spot in the lineup while he's doing that.
The 6 hole is the only spot in the line up that makes sense for BJ. You put him in front of a singles hitter in Chris Johnson to maximize his speed on the bases. At the lead off spot, his lack of on base ability is going to catch up with the team. Right now, you are basing where you would hit him off a small sample size, and he still isn't ideal in that small sample size. Your lead off man has to get on base at a high clip. BJ has a .282 OBP. La Stella is .360. La Stella's ability to go from 1st to 3rd shouldn't even be a consideration, as the team's sluggers will be hitting behind him.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
I think we will have to agree to disagree. I understand what the sabermetrics say and I do not disagree that he should not be our permanent lead off hitter. But for right now he needs to be. I am not a fan of sabermetrics. I think there are times when it is good to use them, but I think they very often get us away from the eye test. The eye test says BJ Upton is scoring almost a run per game during his 10 game hitting streak, and he's doing from the spot in the lineup where run scoring is probably most important. It's not a coincidence we are scoring 5 runs a game during that time either.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
He has a .211 BA and during his 10 game hitting streak has around a .250 BA with an OBP around .275. He's scored 8 runs during that time, stolen 3 bases, and has actually allowed us to increase the effectiveness of his skill set and has extended the effectiveness of our lineup.
The thing I think you are overlooking is that BJ's speed provides line up protection for Simmons and Freeman, the two guys on the team you really want to see fastballs because Simmons is low strikeout and Freeman is Freeman. Put La Stella there and sure maybe he gets on base more than BJ, but his lack of overall base stealing ability does not provide lineup protection for Simmons and Freeman. If he's not a liability to run, that means Simmons and Freeman are less likely to see fastballs. BJ in lead off and on base may give Simmons and Freeman each 1-4 fastballs more per game. That's a huge number when you figure in a game where you get 4 ABs you figure to see around 16-20 pitches. That's a 5 to 20% increase in fastballs seen. With La Stella in lead off you can almost pitch normally to Simmons and Freeman because he's not a threat to steal, so there really is no reason to adjust how you attack Simmons or Freeman at the plate.
I am not a fan of sabermetrics is pretty akin to I am not a fan of knowledge.
So, you would change the lineup right now despite an 8-game winning streak? If so, you're not a fan of just winningQuote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Is Upton leading off THE REASON they are winning. Remember who holds the modern win streak record....Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
How can you argue whether or not he IS the reason the Braves are leading? If the team's chemistry and mojo is working out for 8 games, why change that because the sabermetrics say that it won't work. Here's the thing, the team is comfortable. The team is winning. When that's the case, you keep going with what you have until you lose. At that point, you look at what you can change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
I'm not saying bj is the only reason, but he's certainly been important.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Yes, you're blasted a's hold the modern day win streak. I heard EOF finally came back yesterday. If he's fully healthy, you guys just got better in the pen
Pioneer has a different favorite team based on the standings that day. A's, Angels, Braves, Nationals, Dodgers, Astros, Marlins are all teams he's claimed to be a fan of and I'm probably forgetting a few. Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals?
With no championships since 1989.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
So you're saying pioneer is 5 games from becoming a braves' (48-38) fan instead of an a's (53-33)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Winning isn't as important as making sure you have the best lineup according to saber metricsQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Hard to argue with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
The thing about sabermetrics is a guy like Upton may actually be better in the lead off spot, but because he maybe hasn't been used there a lot, his numbers look bad and it makes it appear as if he shouldn't be where he actually should be in the lineup.
And even if sabermetrics is right about him, it's not like he has to stay hitting lead off the entire year. You just move him somewhere else. Not really that big of a deal.
Yeah I can't believe baseball was ever played without sabermetrics. Since it's the be all end all as some think. How could managers ever do their job without BABIP or FIP or Pythagorean Expectation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Give me a break. If you know anything about baseball, you can watch it without needing statistics in front of you to know what guys do or what tendencies they have. Right now you can watch BJ Upton get on base, get the guy behind him more FBs, and watch the Braves score more runs. Now is that the only reason why the Braves are scoring more runs right now? No. But saying it isn't a part or saying you should change things just because it won't work long term is dumb.
Baseball is full of ups and down where players peak, slump, get injured, etc. Some on here and many who play/watch/coach try to out think themselves because statistics say do this when this happens or make this change when this stat says this. How about what does common sense say do when your lead off guy, who has already shown he struggles in the 2 hole and the 6-8 hole, is averaging .8 runs per game in his last 10 games from the lead off spot?? It says keep his ass there.
Too many people try and sound smarter than they really are by spouting off some guys BABIP or some other bull shit stat to make their case. I would like to see someone make the case for why you would change what is working during an 8 game win streak? I'm not happy with how BJ has done for us overall since he got to Atlanta, but it's pretty damn hard to argue with what he's done lately. One hit per game may not seem like much, but when you score 80% of the time you get that one hit like he has during the last 10 games, common sense says keep it up until it runs dry. If it does, you find another solution like baseball managers have done since the game started. And you don't have to look at a guy's secondary average or his range score to do it.
I know right? It's not always as cut and dried as what the stat sheet says.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
The thing that people don't understand sometimes and see is what is going on behind the scenes with these players. All those little mechanical tweaks and things that these players work on with coaches- a manager is going to see and know that and that has some influence on the lineup as well. Sometimes a player that is struggling will make an adjustment and the manager will know about it, but the fans are like "what the hell is the manager doing? Look at the numbers!"- and then it somehow works out sometimes.
Sweet Jesus thank you. People say "Oh God it won't work long term!! How stupid to keep him there!! Sabermetrics says it was stupid to begin with!! Once he cools off you will see what that team really is." Ummm, the manager makes a change. Like you said it's not that big of a deal. Fredi isn't afraid to make changes either, so I feel ok with the fact that if BJ goes 2 or 3 games without getting on base that he would make a change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Exactly. BJ most likely won't be leading off all season, but by God why would you take him out of the leadoff slot now when we have been winning with him there?Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Can't believe we haven't dropped BJ in the line up yet. Freaking lead off triples are highly unacceptable......
11 game hitting streak now and now 9 runs scored in his last 11 games.