UPig Game 3 Thread

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03-31-2014, 01:50 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Will James

Because he gets as many groundballs as Kendall Graveman and K's 2 batters per inning. Thats the stuff the big boy scouts are looking for. He could walk into a pro bullpen TODAY.

And as I type he K's the side

LOL. No he couldn't- and he wouldn't. Don't get me wrong- he's good, but no.
03-31-2014, 02:02 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by I seen it dawg

Your table doesn't mean shit because of the situation the game was in. Also you can't just take 2 percentages and divide by 2...what in the samshit is that? The % increases from man on 2nd with no outs to man on 3rd with 1 out. But more dramatically so I would imagine when the defense HAS to stop that run in the late innings and what it causes the pitcher and defense to have to do (human element). It's situational baseball not algorithms and calculators. You'll never get it.

If we had not bunted, we reduce the chance of almost guaranteeing ourselves that the runner gets to third and we would have potentially dropped our chances of scoring by about 20% using that chart.

Not to mention the multiple ways you can score from third base.

But what the hell do I know?
03-31-2014, 02:05 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Will, here is where you go horribly wrong:

You cant use MLB stats for college players. MLB players are more efficient in every aspect of the game- including bunt defense. Plus there is a wider talent discrepancy in college baseball team to team than there is in MLB

You dont include the human element- those percentages differ in the late innings with the game on the line vs earlier in the game when players are more relaxed

You think Hunter Renfroe was even remotely clutch

There are no Alabama A&M's in MLB either. You are correct- there is a wider variance between the best team and the worst team in both leagues.
03-31-2014, 06:50 AM
Will James

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

If we had not bunted, we reduce the chance of almost guaranteeing ourselves that the runner gets to third

Aha here is where I can AGREE with something. You're absolutely right bunting right there gave us a much better chance of having the runner get to 3rd base. BUT it did not give us the best chance of him scoring, because you have to factor in the percentages of a failed bunt.
03-31-2014, 08:48 AM
engie

I have no problem with the 8th inning bunt because I have no problem playing for one run up 3 right there when Holder had just brought the go-ahead run to the plate in that very inning.

Hate it in alot of the situations that Cohen uses it -- but that wasn't one of them...
03-31-2014, 08:50 AM
MarketingBully01

Quote:

Originally Posted by engie

I have no problem with the 8th inning bunt because I have no problem playing for one run up 3 right there when Holder had just brought the go-ahead run to the plate in that very inning.

Hate it in alot of the situations that Cohen uses it -- but that wasn't one of them...

Agreed, Engie, agreed.
03-31-2014, 10:37 AM
dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by I seen it dawg

You win. And bgdog is right...can't have a discussion with you because you are never wrong. And I'm fine with that because I wasn't convinced before but I damn sure am now...you don't know jackshit about how the game is really played. You are beneath arguing with on the finer points of baseball. Keep spitting useless graphs and shit and leave the baseball discussions to people that have a clue. Great job at updating the game thread so stick to that, you have truly found your usefulness to this board.

he's backed up by years of empirical data. almost always, it's not worth giving up the out to advance a runner. i said ALMOST always. but up 4-1 with a man on 2nd and 0 outs, you shouldn't be sacrificing the out imo.
03-31-2014, 10:41 AM
dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Will, here is where you go horribly wrong:

You cant use MLB stats for college players. MLB players are more efficient in every aspect of the game- including bunt defense. Plus there is a wider talent discrepancy in college baseball team to team than there is in MLB

You dont include the human element- those percentages differ in the late innings with the game on the line vs earlier in the game when players are more relaxed

You think Hunter Renfroe was even remotely clutch

i agree that the wider discrepancy skews some of the numbers, but they still have a place. just take them in the proper context.

that said, while MLB defenses are much better at bunt defense, they are also much better bunters. so in the end, i'd say things are a wash.
03-31-2014, 05:02 PM
preachermatt83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

LOL. No he couldn't- and he wouldn't. Don't get me wrong- he's good, but no.

I disagree. I have to agree with Will on this. There is no doubt in my mind Lingo could be effective right now in a pro bullpen.
03-31-2014, 07:15 PM
shoeless joe

Quote:

Originally Posted by preachermatt83

I disagree. I have to agree with Will on this. There is no doubt in my mind Lingo could be effective right now in a pro bullpen.

Some folks live in la-la land or have no idea what the stuff of a big leaguer actually looks like. Lindgren could without a doubt develop into a big league guy. Right now he's a good AA pitcher. He would prolly have success at that level. I guess because professional hitters make it look easy folks think they are comparable to college guys but they get paid the big bucks for a reason.

Not to mention the part of actually playing ball for a livin. It's not easy and some guys mentally can't do it. Not saying lindgren fall in this category, but it's the reason more folks miss than make the big leagues.

I guess some of you don't know enough to realize what it takes. It's a fine line but consistently on that level is hard to achieve.

Ex: better college player- Mitch Moreland or Stephen head?
Better pro-Mitch Moreland or Stephen head?
03-31-2014, 07:33 PM
Will James

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless joe

no idea what the stuff of a big leaguer actually looks like.

Lindgren couldn't come in and get a LHB out every game? He strikes out about half of the hitters he faces. He is better than Girodo was and thats saying something. People cannot even put the ball in play against him, he has a 6.2 K/BB ratio, he gets as many groundballs as Kendall Graveman...

He would be effective RIGHT NOW in a big league pen. His stuff is that nasty. He is currently 12th in the league in K's... throwing less than 20 innings!
03-31-2014, 08:30 PM
shoeless joe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Will James

Lindgren couldn't come in and get a LHB out every game? He strikes out about half of the hitters he faces. He is better than Girodo was and thats saying something. People cannot even put the ball in play against him, he has a 6.2 K/BB ratio, he gets as many groundballs as Kendall Graveman...

He would be effective RIGHT NOW in a big league pen. His stuff is that nasty. He is currently 12th in the league in K's... throwing less than 20 innings!

Since graveman and girodo aren't in the bigs...or AAA...or AA...I don't seem how comparing to them is helping your stance on this. Lindgren is good no doubt, he's damn good. But he is not currently a major league ready pitcher.
03-31-2014, 09:05 PM
Homedawg

Look I love lindgren and have been sayin he's a great draft pick and has a chance. But it's a chance not a sure thing. Bj Wallace was a filthy as any lhp I've ever seen. He had more pitches than jacob and he never made triple a. Long long way from the big leagues.

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