is there even an outside chance we hold onto him?
is there even an outside chance we hold onto him?
I mean, the fact that he still hasn't signed means there's an outside chance. But going into the draft, he was probably the signee that let it be known he wanted to go pro the most. So I'd still say not likely. But it'd be huge if we got him to campus
I'd say that there is very little chance that he comes to MSU even if he doesn't sign with the Padres. And that's probably being optimistic. I fully expect him to shaft us and go to some JUCO and then get drafted in about the same spot next year if he doesn't sign. And I expect him to sign with the Padres in the end.
It seems like these guys that shaft us for JUCO's- it never really works out for them and I can't remember anyone that it ever has really worked out for honestly.
Why would a guy do that? I mean when a Carter Stewart gets drafted in the first round but then doesn't get near the money his slot should get then going a year to JUCO makes sense but we are talking about a 15th rounder that apparently was pretty open about being willing to sign this year. Why go spend a year in JUCO? Seems if he was a true Top 10 round pick he would have been picked there this year. Would seem to make more sense to take 15th round money or go to play major college ball for 3 years and improve his skills.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
You are correct that going to MSU would be a better move for him in his case but in his mind I'm sure he just wants to go pro and probably thinks his value is more than it actually is and therefore by going to a JUCO and having a good year he in his mind will get drafted higher and paid what he is worth in his mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
Stewart should have also gone to MSU or taken the Braves lowball offer- he was going to get drafted a lot lower than he did last year. As I said he would. Now if his dream to play in Japan was his goal all along- well then I guess he made a good move. I think he's going to have a really hard time coming back to America unless he dominates like Yu Darvish did over there.
Well I guess this an opportunity where Lemonis can potentially show off his recruiting skills I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Padres had 10.8 million in bonus pool money. They used 5.2 million on their 1st round pick and 3 million (not a typo) on their 3rd round pick. Highest ever bonus for a 3rd rounder in history.
I have to think the Padres might be strapped for available cash (now you see why they were one of the 2 teams that low balled a ton of seniors). I don't know the particulars about Tarver or his situation. But based on the available money they have spent, there can't be much money left. I have to think at this point there's at least a possibility he doesn't sign.
Question becomes does he come to MSU. I'm of the opinion going to college is smarter for your career, and the data proves that it is.
We picked up Xavier Lovett to replace him a long time ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
Stewart made a good financial decision. He's getting paid now. At 24, he will be a FREE AGENT and able to sign with any MLB team for whatever he can get them to pay him (going pro now or after 3 years of college, and he'd likely be making his mlb debut age 22-24, at which point he's under team control for 6-7 years, thus being ~30 before he's a true free agent). If he is a mediocre Japanese league pitcher, he probably won't end up playing MLB, but he'd at least get paid way more than being a mediocre minor league pitcher and never making it to MLB. And guys far less dominant than dervish are being brought to MLB from Japan, including severa American players who basically washed out of the minor leagues, went to japan, and turned themselves into quality pitchers. So the odds of getting a MLB contract are much better than you make them out to be, and he's getting paid now, and if he's good, he'll be making big FA dollars at the MLB level YEARS before he'd have been eligible making it to MLB thru the draft and minor league system.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Wrong. He's locked into Japan and has to be posted which by that time he will be 26 I believe. He got a rumored 6 year deal worth 7 million or about a million a year vs the 4 he was initially looking for. It will be more money on the front end but if it doesn't work out he's probably going to get burned on the back end. MLB isn't going to pay the posting fee and open a can of worms unless he is dominant. They barely will even pay Jake Mangum. He'll be lucky to even pitch in the U.S.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
MSbaseballfan on facebook says he is waiting until all of the other padres draftees have signed to see how much money is available. Sounds very plausible. But, the fact that he is doing that must mean that there is a 1% chance he comes to school.
Someone with the patience might check to see how many of the padres draftees are signing under slot.
Where would he play next year for us?
OFQuote:
Originally Posted by chef dixon
Ok, so 26. Either way, he's a FREE AGENT years before he'd get to be a FA through other routes. I don't think his development will be thwarted (evidence of the numerous other players who've played in japan, had success, and then moved over to MLB and maintained success, both American and Japanese born), so instead of making the league minimum for a few years, he'll be making more than that, then able to sign a FA deal while his peers are still stuck under team control. If he washes out, then there's no way to know he wouldn't have also washed out in the minors and walked away from his career with less money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...japan.amp.html
Except that Japan's minor league system is vastly different than MLB and not in a good way. I can't see him developing there. If he is with their Nippon League big league team he's trying to jump from JUCO to AAAA baseball and that's a huge leap. I doubt this ends well for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
I don?t know how contracts work in Japan but....if his $7M is guaranteed over 6 yrs...I think it will end well for him either way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
That’s pretty good no matter who you are...Quote:
Originally Posted by TALL DAWG
Yep, outside of Rowdey, our OF is wide open next year. Allen may go out there but we don't know that for sure nor do we know what kind of defensive outfielder Allen would make. Hatcher can hit but he is a liability defensively in the OF. Cumbest is athletic enough to start defensively but can he hit SEC pitching and will he give baseball enough time to improve like he should? Other candidates are unknowns at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
I think Allen is playing LF for team USA this summer
Allen will be in left field and Cumbest in right field. I think both will be fine. Hatcher will be better at first base than Allen was. And I think Allen will be better in the outfield than Hatcher was.Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
He was in LF the first game.Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksondawg
Assuming we don't have a difference maker coming in to help us in the OF I would agree that what you listed are the most likely positions we end up with. Allen will definitely start somewhere and if Hatcher is starting also then it would make the most sense to put Allen in the OF and Hatcher at 1B. But even if Allen, Jordan and Cumbest all nail down the starting OF positions it would seem to be a pretty fair drop from there to get to the 4th outfielder. Just saying that a really talented outfield guy coming in could end up getting significant playing time even as a FR.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
If someone is talented and ready I agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
There's a few guys a year that come from Japan and have mlb success, many are American players who couldn't cut it here, go to Japan and DEVELOPED into better players and returned to the states and are productive mlb players, like miles mikolas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
No American has ever gone there straight out of JUCO and done it. Mikolas sucks. The Japanese players like Ichiro are outliers from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Again- MLB isn't going to open this can of worms unless he is absolutely elite. And he regressed this year in JUCO. They aren't into spending money- see the slot system, Jake Mangum and free agency this offseason.
Hearing from pretty reliable sources that Tarver is leaning toward getting to State in the fall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
If he's putting up good numbers in Japan by the time he's ending his deal and he wants to come back to the United States to play MLB, there will be a market there for him and the contract he signs will be worth more than the players his age who are still under team control for years. You say mikolas "sucks". I say mikolas is contracted to make $83M between 2018 and 2023 and though he's stepped back this season, he's still produced 1 WAR OVER ~half the season, so on pace to be a 2.0 WAR player, which has value. Last year he was a 4.3 WAR guy for advanced numbers and had a sub-3.00 era if you like old school numbers. 4.3 WAR was the 12th best WAR and 7th best era from a starting pitcher in 2018.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
You can argue stewart's probably gonna flame out. Well, you can make that argument about every 19 year old baseball prospect and be right the overwhelming majority of the time even if they follow the Todd4State plan to reach the big leagues perfectly. His path isn't a wrong path, it is a path. It's a path that's proven to help other American players take their skills from career minor leaguer or MLB wash outs to being MLB all-stars and regular starters. He'll make ~$5M more over the next 6 years than he likely would've made signing out of the draft and spending the next 4-5 years in the minors and then making league minimum to start his career. There is not a damn thing wrong or incorrect about his decision and many baseball folks think it's a very smart and financially prudent decision. Sure there's some risk due to the unknown factor of developing from a juco kid instead of an already minor leaguer or low level MLBer, but that's where the extra $5M comes in to mitigate that risk. Never mind that plenty of Japanese pitchers have been developed in the Japanese minor league system and eventually come to the United States making big money and pitching above average.
Basically, if I'm Stewart and I believe in myself and felt comfortable living in Japan most of the year, I'd strongly consider this option. It's not wrong, it's just a bit unknown, and there's ample evidence to indicate his development won't be significantly hindered (if hindered at all), and then he'd be able to sign a FA deal at an age where he'd normally be bound by team control rules for another 3-4 seasons.
This whole Carter Stewart thing is going to be interesting to watch play out. The kid is going to make a bunch of money so it's hard to say it was the wrong move. What I think will be interesting is that if he gets to a point where he is a solid option but maybe not elite, if MLB gives him a chance. I could see teams passing on him to discourage other players from doing it down the road. Of course, if he ends up being elite, someone will pick him up no doubt.
If he throws 95+ with the spin rate he had before his injury then someone will give him a shot. MLB people might be petty and try to blackball him but if he has that physical ability and proves he can pitch in Japan then he will get a shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Randolph Dupree
Miles mikolas never profiled as more than a mid-rotation guy and he came back to mlb and will make $93M by the end of the 2023 season. Merrill kelly went to Korea and was just ok over there and he signed a 2 year, $5.5M deal with the diamondbacks this past offseason and obviously may make more in an extension.Quote:
Originally Posted by Randolph Dupree
Yeah but did either of those guys turn down first round money prior? I honestly don't know the answer to that and my point is more about spite from MLB front offices. With that beings said, as I eluded to earlier and Tbone states, if the stuff is elite he will get a shot regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Stewart is the first player to do this so I'd say it's hardly proven. What has been proven is that people that give MLB the finger usually get blackballed. Good luck to him. MLB rarely scouts Japanese pitchers out of high school. And most of them spend years pitching in Japan before coming over. The Americans are mostly reclaimation projects so not at all the same as someone out of high school.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
That shocks me. Could be a last minute leverage play though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lance Harbor
Lol @ blackballing a guy if he could become a helpful rotation piece because he went to Japan instead of the minors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Yes, there's no exact comparison of a 1st round pick going to Japan after a juco year instead of back into the draft, but there are plenty of other Japanese and American born players who have developed in Japan and then had productive MLB careers.
And the point of bringing up someone like mikolas is that he doesn't have to be elite to get a nice MLB contract and he'd be able to start getting it years before guys coming thru the minors. Speaking of years, if MLB doesn't scout guys until they are several years out of HS, then that works perfect with Stewart's contract since he'll be over there for 6 years. Plenty of time for MLB scouts to get over themselves and start to scout him. Now he could obviously flame out, but most minor leaguers, even 1st round picks, flame out too, so his success level or lack thereof won't really "prove" anything except that there's more than 1 way to get yourself from HS to MLB, which we already know.
Personally, I don't think pitching in Japan or in the minors will really have all that much effect on his development, it'll come down to individual coaching, and he could land with a good or a bad coach for him here or there. If he produces, he'll land a nice FA contract at the age of 26 and won't have to deal with team control bullshit plus will have already made $7M (win-win-win for Stewart here). If he doesn't produce, then he won't make big MLB money either route he chose, but he'll have several more million dollars in the bank from his Japan contract than he would from his MLB draft bonus money + minor league salary. Even if he made the bigs for a year or 2 but didn't produce and never really put a career together, he'd be making the league minimum during his service time and still trailing the money he'll make in Japan the next 6 years by several million.
If he did come here and immediately started in right and we moved Allen to left and moved Hatcher to first and had Ginn DH everyday except when he pitched how good could this team be?Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
As my old coach used to say, Vury vury good....
You keep comparing him to Miles Mikolas and it's not the same at all. Mikolas didn't leave for Japan because he just wanted more money and didn't like the offer he got. Japanese players are not even eligible for the International signing period. It's also not the same thing at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
What is known is that MLB will blackball people that go against the grain. Do with that what you will. The Japanese baseball system is very different than the American system. The Americans that go there have already been developed before they even go. Most have MLB experience and at worst AAA. The Japanese players are in their native country and only the best of the best even get an opportunity to come to America. And none of those again have told MLB to go take a hike.
We'll see how it works out in seven years.
The potential to be good is very good even as it is. I would say it would make up for missing on Jake Randa long term. But Tarver would still be a freshman so I would still say that he would be a question mark at least until he proves that he can play at the SEC level for next year but he would likely be a All-SEC guy by the time he is a junior most likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketingBully
So getting Tarver would be a huge pick up for us especially since it would be unexpected. But I do think coming to MSU would be a better move for him if he is indeed looking to make more bonus money and make it to MLB if he is willing to be patient for three years.
This ain't the 1980s anymore. Math geeks that have mountains of data on each pitcher's spin rate and exact arm angle don't give a shit about going against the grain. The game has changed (for the better) and the personalities are winning. Bat flips are fun, throwing at dude's heads isn't, welcome to 2019. Stewart won't be blackballed, if he doesn't make it over the MLB, it'll be because he wasn't good enough, not because of some imaginary league wide grudge from 8 years prior.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
So in the article linked why does Tarver say "I want to see where the money is when the Padres make me an offer on July 16 or 17, and then I will make a decision,"? Isn't the deadline to sign on 12 July or do I have it wrong?
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/...padres/497252/