A little history on 4 and 5 star recruits from MS

In conjunction with the other nice thread about 4-5 stars in our overall recruiting area I decided to see historically how important is to get the highly rated players from MS.

Looking at 2008-2012 signing classes as we can effectively grade those guys. Also ONLY looking at HS.

There have been 36 4-5 stars over this period based on 24/7 composite ratings. Of those I count only about 16 had good careers and only about 5-6 guys I would call impact guys that were clearly better than the 3-stars that filled the rest of teh team. There were of course some high talent flameouts like Brassell but ovrerall that's not a real good batting average on impact guys.

So I think sometimes we over-react to the need to get the instate 4-star guys. Here's the list by year for your own review:


2008
Deandre Brown
Alonzo Lawrence
Tig Barksdale
Charles Mitchell
Templeton Hardy

2009
Pat Patterson
Chad Bumphis
Fletcher Cox
Josh Boyd
Rod Woodson
Tyler Russell

2010
Shon Coleman
Damien Robinson
Vince Sanders
Travis Dickson
Carlos Thompson
Kaleb Eulls
Carlton Martin
Matt Wells

2011
CJ Johnson
Nick Brasell
Donte Moncrief
Tobias Singleton
Dee Arrington
M Faciane
PJ Jones
Jeremy Whitehead
Aaron Morris
James Maiden
Devin Fosselman

2012
Channing Ward
Anthony Alford
Quay Evans
Nick James
Jeremy Liggins
Isaac Gross

Played like.....

2008
Deandre Brown - 4 star
Alonzo Lawrence - 2 star
Tig Barksdale - 3 star
Charles Mitchell - 4 star
Templeton Hardy - 2 star

2009
Pat Patterson - 2 star
Chad Bumphis - 4 star
Fletcher Cox - 5 star
Josh Boyd - 4 star
Rod Woodson - 3 star
Tyler Russell - 3 star

2010
Shon Coleman - Tough to rate. Projected 1st rounder this year, but had cancer & lost college playing time. 4 star
Damien Robinson - 2 star
Vince Sanders - 4 star
Travis Dickson - 3 star
Carlos Thompson - 2 star
Kaleb Eulls - 4 star
Carlton Martin - 3 star
Matt Wells - 4 star

2011
CJ Johnson - 4 star
Nick Brasell - 3 star
Donte Moncrief - 4 star
Tobias Singleton - 2 star
Dee Arrington - 2 star
M Faciane - 2 star
PJ Jones - 4 star
Jeremy Whitehead - 3 star
Aaron Morris - 3 star
James Maiden - 2 star
Devin Fosselman - 2 star

2012
Channing Ward - 3 star
Anthony Alford - 3 star
Quay Evans - 2 star
Nick James - 4 star
Jeremy Liggins - 3 star
Isaac Gross - 4 star

2013
Chris Jones
Tony Conner
Kailo Moore
Shumpert
Buchanan

2014
Rod Taylor
CJ Hampton
Markell Pack
Breeland Speaks
Devin Voorchies
Jamoral Graham
Aeris Williams
Gerri Green

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Irondawg

In conjunction with the other nice thread about 4-5 stars in our overall recruiting area I decided to see historically how important is to get the highly rated players from MS.

Looking at 2008-2012 signing classes as we can effectively grade those guys. Also ONLY looking at HS.

There have been 36 4-5 stars over this period based on 24/7 composite ratings. Of those I count only about 16 had good careers and only about 5-6 guys I would call impact guys that were clearly better than the 3-stars that filled the rest of teh team. There were of course some high talent flameouts like Brassell but ovrerall that's not a real good batting average on impact guys.

So I think sometimes we over-react to the need to get the instate 4-star guys. Here's the list by year for your own review:


2008
Deandre Brown
Alonzo Lawrence
Tig Barksdale
Charles Mitchell
Templeton Hardy

2009
Pat Patterson
Chad Bumphis
Fletcher Cox
Josh Boyd
Rod Woodson
Tyler Russell

2010
Shon Coleman
Damien Robinson
Vince Sanders
Travis Dickson
Carlos Thompson
Kaleb Eulls
Carlton Martin
Matt Wells

2011
CJ Johnson
Nick Brasell
Donte Moncrief
Tobias Singleton
Dee Arrington
M Faciane
PJ Jones
Jeremy Whitehead
Aaron Morris
James Maiden
Devin Fosselman

2012
Channing Ward
Anthony Alford
Quay Evans
Nick James
Jeremy Liggins
Isaac Gross

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The problem is recruiting in other states. I think this alone shows you can not be competitive with Alabama and LSU year in and year out counting on MS alone. Especially with the OL talent in state. Like C34 said the other day, 2014 and 2015 class had two great OL prospects and we got neither. We must start recruiting Georgia, Texas, LA, Florida, and Tennessee harder. The OL pool in the state of MS just plain sucks.

There's no doubt that most of the best players to come from MS have been 2- and 3-star guys, not 4- and 5-star guys. No clue why that is, but it's true.

That's why I would rather take a 3* in Louisiana or Alabama over a 3 or sometimes 4* in MS. They play better ball in those states and their guys are little more polished coming out.

Almost all of those guys have great size, which tells you what the star sites are looking at.

This is gonna sound like a shot at the networks but I don't intend it that way.

But a lot of The rankings are pretty much controlled by the networks and the guys that cover the schools. For all of Yancys faults, and their are too many to name, he fights like hell for the kids ole miss recruits to get them a proper evaluation. You have some guys, and I am just gonna use Steve as the example because he is very good at it, that know how to get our kids the right evaluation. There are some out there that wouldn't know a superstar from a decent high school player. And then you have the guys that give the stars. Some are pretty good. Some have their jobs because of who their friends are and their rankings are all over the place.

Mississippi is a hard place to give an honest evaluation on because of several variables. You have some damn good coaches in Mississippi. Damn good. But you have some that could care less whether their kids attend camps or get evaluated. People say we take a lot of lower rated kids. Well if the coaches got their films to the right people then this shouldn't be an issue. It shouldn't be up to Paul or Steve to fight for this kid and a extra star or two. I understand they are teachers and they have lives. But the got into coaching because they love the kids and they love the sport. Don't forget that. Want to see a coach that cares? Follow Discenzo Miller on Facebook or Twitter. I truly believe he gets as much joy out of coaching as he did playing.

And for the love of all that is holy take the time to update their stats so the kid is ranked and listed where they need to be in stat rankings

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smootness

There's no doubt that most of the best players to come from MS have been 2- and 3-star guys, not 4- and 5-star guys. No clue why that is, but it's true.

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That's because there are usually 5 times as many 3* players in the state. The quantity just means there's a better chance for that group to hold underrated or breakout players. If you looked back and turned each segment into a bell curve the 4* mean would always be higher than the 3* mean, but the top .5% of 3*'s would be better than the top .5% of 4*'s (the bottom .5% of 3*'s would also be much lower). Does that make sense? Mississippi is a poorly scouted state from a fan site perspective, but I believe this would also hold true in any state or on a national level.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ElitedawgRecruiting

This is gonna sound like a shot at the networks but I don't intend it that way.

But a lot of The rankings are pretty much controlled by the networks and the guys that cover the schools. For all of Yancys faults, and their are too many to name, he fights like hell for the kids ole miss recruits to get them a proper evaluation. You have some guys, and I am just gonna use Steve as the example because he is very good at it, that know how to get our kids the right evaluation. There are some out there that wouldn't know a superstar from a decent high school player. And then you have the guys that give the stars. Some are pretty good. Some have their jobs because of who their friends are and their rankings are all over the place.

Mississippi is a hard place to give an honest evaluation on because of several variables. You have some damn good coaches in Mississippi. Damn good. But you have some that could care less whether their kids attend camps or get evaluated. People say we take a lot of lower rated kids. Well if the coaches got their films to the right people then this shouldn't be an issue. It shouldn't be up to Paul or Steve to fight for this kid and a extra star or two. I understand they are teachers and they have lives. But the got into coaching because they love the kids and they love the sport. Don't forget that. Want to see a coach that cares? Follow Discenzo Miller on Facebook or Twitter. I truly believe he gets as much joy out of coaching as he did playing.

And for the love of all that is holy take the time to update their stats so the kid is ranked and listed where they need to be in stat rankings

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So true.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dog

That's because there are usually 5 times as many 3* players in the state. The quantity just means there's a better chance for that group to hold underrated or breakout players. If you looked back and turned each segment into a bell curve the 4* mean would always be higher than the 3* mean, but the top .5% of 3*'s would be better than the top .5% of 4*'s (the bottom .5% of 3*'s would also be much lower). Does that make sense? Mississippi is a poorly scouted state from a fan site perspective, but I believe this would also hold true in any state or on a national level.

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Yeah, I get this. But I disagree that across the board, the top 3-stars will be better than the top 4-stars, though this does appear to mostly be the case in Mississippi.