Our path to a Regional...

[Quaoarsking]

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
@ Alabama - maybe we get 1
Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

[EdwardDrayton]

"Our path to a regional is not very likely."

Understatedly he said.

[Cooterpoot]

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

[msstate7]

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

[Quaoarsking]

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

I wouldn't really call it a win if we barely sneak into a Regional and Selmon decides "At Mississippi State, simply making a Regional is good enough."

I said before the season that we need to have a winning conference record and be in the hosting discussion for Lemonis to keep his job, and I still say that. He would need to go about 15-6 over the last 21 for that to happen, but he dug himself into this hole.

Lemonis is a top 10 coach in salary and needs to give us top 10 results on the field. I know the nature of baseball makes it impossible to be top 10 literally every year, but he needs to do that some and still be decent in the off-years. Instead, the last 4 years of 2022-25 have been awful, awful, decent, and presumably awful.

[Coursesuper]

I just looked also and see things pretty much the same way. We have almost no margin for error. The problem is as I see it we continue to beat ourselves much of the time with any opponent that is in our level. They have to win at least 11 or 12 to advance to the postseason, that’s a tall order for this team considering the way they are playing right now.

[Coursesuper]

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

You win the internet today.

[HoopsDawg]

I like the Kohn/Stone paring. That gives us a good shot on Fridays.

[msstate7]

I wouldn't really call it a win if we barely sneak into a Regional and Selmon decides "At Mississippi State, simply making a Regional is good enough."

I said before the season that we need to have a winning conference record and be in the hosting discussion for Lemonis to keep his job, and I still say that. He would need to go about 15-6 over the last 21 for that to happen, but he dug himself into this hole.

Lemonis is a top 10 coach in salary and needs to give us top 10 results on the field. I know the nature of baseball makes it impossible to be top 10 literally every year, but he needs to do that some and still be decent in the off-years. Instead, the last 4 years of 2022-25 have been awful, awful, decent, and presumably awful.

We won't get in the regional without our level of play going way up. If that happens, then I'll have much more confidence in Lemonis.

[Saltydog]

Croach say we still make a regional. You didn't get the memo?

[confucius say]

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

[EdwardDrayton]

Making a regional means we're one of 64. That's our benchmark for this clown who's only even delivered that once since '21. And we even got bounced the year we did make it.

And this year's team. Oof.

[Coursesuper]

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

This is why they play so tight. They know that if they 17 up in any way they are going back to the bench. This is the antithesis of leadership it’s micromanagement at its finest. The players are not stupid they can see what is going on around them.

[Coach34]

we're gonna have to sweep someone. Time is running out

[cheewgumm]

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

[MBDawg601]

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

I can't tell if I am laughing because of how funny this is, or how true it is.

[Todd4State]

This is why they play so tight. They know that if they 17 up in any way they are going back to the bench. This is the antithesis of leadership it’s micromanagement at its finest. The players are not stupid they can see what is going on around them.

It doesn't help that Lemonis focuses so much on the pressure at playing at MSU. The game is hard enough without talking about playing in front 15k fans.

I think that is part of what happened with Hines the past two years. When a player has a ton of pressure on them to perform they're going to press and try to do too much and try to hit the baseball 600 feet. It hurts the pitchers and players in the field when they're pitching or playing defense. Trying to do too much also can lead to being over aggressive on the basepaths.

Guys like Cohen and Vitello focus on the moment because that's all you can control when you are a baseball player. If you are a pitcher- make the pitch and locate it and get a strike. If you are a hitter see the ball and hit the ball. If you are in the field catch the ball and make the play. Do that enough and you will win more often than not.

The game is hard enough without making it life and death. At the end of the day whether it's the 7th game of the World Series or if it's a bunch of kids in the yard it's the same game. It's just baseball.

[Todd4State]

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

But we have a good bullpen. And we can manage it better. Pico can give us 6 every weekend. Then go to Hungate. He keeps saying that Hungate can pitch twice a weekend- well then do it.

Throw Pruitt on Saturday and then bring in Stone. That's at least 6 innings there. Maybe more if Pruitt is on.

Throw Siary on Sunday and then bring in Ben Davis. Throw Hungate again after that. Siary can give us 3-4 and Davis can give us at least 2.

And to fill in the rest of the innings decide who the closer is between Dotson and Nate Williams and stick with it unless one of them falls apart consistently.

That still gives us McPherson, Mannell, and Grant that we can use. Get McPherson right and that's another multi inning arm.

Use Nolan Stevens as a closer too. He can easily give us an inning a weekend.

[Coach34]

Stevens has thrown 4 pitches since March 12th. I dont think we are going to use him in a pitching role

[Pancho]

maybe we are giving him a few weeks off like stone got

[Todd4State]

Stevens has thrown 4 pitches since March 12th. I dont think we are going to use him in a pitching role

And not doing stuff like that is why they're about to get fired.

[Todd4State]

Have they considered having Cupp lead off?

And they need to just stick with Sanders at second. Same offensive production but better defense than Reeves.

1. Cupp- highest OBP on the team. Give him a chance to lead off.
2. Noah Sullivan- best hitter and has more walks than K's
3. Reese- leads team in home runs
4. Downs- great power numbers and breaks up left hand hitters
5. Nolan Stevens - has second highest average on team
6. Chance- needs to see as many fastballs as possible
7. Hines- he can use the whole field!!!
8. Highfill- best catcher we have and is leading team in steals
9. Sanders- hitting almost .400

This is what our lineup should be.

[Cowbell]

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

We would have to win a regional pm the road for me to have hope in our staff

[Cowbell]

I like the Kohn/Stone paring. That gives us a good shot on Fridays.

Preferably paired with an offense that can mash

[Todd4State]

Preferably paired with an offense that can mash

We should be 3-0 on Friday's/game 1's. We're 1-2.

[Cowbell]

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

Yep - we are pitching middle relievers in starting roles. We should set aside $1M for two starting pitchers. It would be the difference to make up for below average coaching

[Cowbell]

We should be 3-0 on Friday's/game 1's. We're 1-2.

The problem with this team is they always lose games they should win but never win games they should have lost. There has to be balance in that to even be average.

[cheewgumm]

Have they considered having Cupp lead off?

And they need to just stick with Sanders at second. Same offensive production but better defense than Reeves.

1. Cupp- highest OBP on the team. Give him a chance to lead off.
2. Noah Sullivan- best hitter and has more walks than K's
3. Reese- leads team in home runs
4. Downs- great power numbers and breaks up left hand hitters
5. Nolan Stevens - has second highest average on team
6. Chance- needs to see as many fastballs as possible
7. Hines- he can use the whole field!!!
8. Highfill- best catcher we have and is leading team in steals
9. Sanders- hitting almost .400

This is what our lineup should be.


Like Cupp at lead off. At least give him a shot like you say.

Hate where Downs and Hines are. However appreciate the out of the box thinking.

[Todd4State]

The problem with this team is they always lose games they should win but never win games they should have lost. There has to be balance in that to even be average.

Both games we lost and had the lead and couldn't figure out that Hungate and McPherson didn't have it.

It's a management issue.

[Todd4State]

Like Cupp at lead off. At least give him a shot like you say.

Hate where Downs and Hines are. However appreciate the out of the box thinking.

I don't like him hitting there either to b me honest. I'm just working with what we have. I don't know if Hines can handle the pressure.

[Coach34]

I don't like him hitting there either to b me honest. I'm just working with what we have. I don't know if Hines can handle the pressure.

Hines has been the best hitter on the team the last 8 games

[TALL DAWG]

You lost me at regional

[BuckyIsAB****]

What about a path to the mythical regional final?? Its about as legendary as Loch Ness or BigFoot

[Todd4State]

Hines has been the best hitter on the team the last 8 games

Yes but can not handle pressure. I want to keep him where he is so he can continue to rake.

[parabrave]

Yes but can not handle pressure. I want to keep him where he is so he can continue to rake.

Hunter needs to stay where he is. I'm still perplexed why Freis hasn't seen more PT. Heck he was pretty dam good at leadoff then Lemon just took him out of the lineup,.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

This is the truth. Lemonis refuses to define roles until April every year. I understand not giving up on a kid after the first weekend, but these roles should've been defined and a lineup settled on in March.

[Cooterpoot]

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

[StarkVegasSteve]

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

The sad thing is, the Lemonis apologists(and there's still a couple out there), will tell you this. They'll say we are young and next year is our year.

[The Federalist Engineer]

18-12, This was my super-fan maroon prediction when I thought we had something more than just Pico ready to compete. So 14-16 is about where MSU ends up, with original assumptions. That's with winning 6 of the last 7 series. Key is Evan Siary being #2 and winning. Ligon has to be replaced as #3. But Pruitt and Davis are not the answer. In 2024, MSU needed a good transfer Starter rather badly last summer. Arkansas got Zack Root and the Bettlejuice kid. Completely whiffed on transfer Starter.

Pitching is the biggest factor to reach 14 SEC wins.

[Coursesuper]

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

Nailed it!

[Coach34]

18-12, This was my super-fan maroon prediction when I thought we had something more than just Pico ready to compete. So 14-16 is about where MSU ends up, with original assumptions. That's with winning 6 of the last 7 series. Key is Evan Siary being #2 and winning. Ligon has to be replaced as #3. But Pruitt and Davis are not the answer. In 2024, MSU needed a good transfer Starter rather badly last summer. Arkansas got Zack Root and the Bettlejuice kid. Completely whiffed on transfer Starter.

But that should really open some eyes after the year we had in 2024 and Parker getting all the love in baseball circles- plus the draft love our pitching staff got- and we still couldnt pull a significant arm in the portal. It's easy to blame Lemon but it's much bigger than that. Most pitchers sign for the PC- not the head coach as much. Then you get into NIL and the town atmosphere of the school. Proximity to home is bigger now than it used to be as well.

[Quaoarsking]

18-12, This was my super-fan maroon prediction when I thought we had something more than just Pico ready to compete. So 14-16 is about where MSU ends up, with original assumptions. That's with winning 6 of the last 7 series. Key is Evan Siary being #2 and winning. Ligon has to be replaced as #3. But Pruitt and Davis are not the answer. In 2024, MSU needed a good transfer Starter rather badly last summer. Arkansas got Zack Root and the Bettlejuice kid. Completely whiffed on transfer Starter.

Pitching is the biggest factor to reach 14 SEC wins.

14-16 would most likely get us into a Regional as a 3, but Lemonis should still be fired if we have all this talent and a top 10 salary for him, and we still finish with a losing conference record.

[The Federalist Engineer]

The sad thing is, the Lemonis apologists(and there's still a couple out there), will tell you this. They'll say we are young and next year is our year.

Wes Johnson would have some horses for next year:

Foster, Grant, Stone, Burns, McPherson, O'Leary, and Booth

And several experienced guys that can be developed further:

Pruitt, Black, Mannell, Loftin, and Siary

Plus some decent transfers.

[Coach34]

Wes Johnson is not leaving Georgia for Sville

[Coursesuper]

Wes Johnson is not leaving Georgia for Sville

WHY WOULD HE??? That is just not even in the realm of reality. And when we do finally move on it will be a free for all into the portal for this entire roster.

[Coach34]

WHY WOULD HE??? That is just not even in the realm of reality. And when we do finally move on it will be a free for all into the portal for this entire roster.

Yeah if we dont recover and make a Regional poachers from all over will be coming for these Freshman pitchers plus Reese and Stevens

[Pancho]

a shame lemo can't win with this group

[Coursesuper]

Yeah if we dont recover and make a Regional poachers from all over will be coming for these Freshman pitchers plus Reese and Stevens

Don't fool yourself, they already are.

[Coach34]

Don't fool yourself, they already are.

oh for sure. It's like that in every sport now. Jan and Crew have been talking to a certain PG for over 2 months now

[StarkVegasSteve]

WHY WOULD HE??? That is just not even in the realm of reality. And when we do finally move on it will be a free for all into the portal for this entire roster.

Because his wife hates Starkville and wanted to leave the day she got here the first time. She stayed in Dallas for the first few months he was here last time.

[StarkVegasSteve]

oh for sure. It's like that in every sport now. Jan and Crew have been talking to a certain PG for over 2 months now

And a pretty good one at that.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Don't fool yourself, they already are.

If Florida and Texas A&M make a coaching move, I wonder which carcass is the most attractive to pillage. Florida has more prime prospects than MSU and TAM not far behind Florida on potential 1st Round talent.

[99jc]

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
@ Alabama - maybe we get 1
Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

IS TOO BUY TICKETS!

[Lord McBuckethead]

Hold up. Before we start this talk, let?s wait and see if Hunter Hines and everyone else on the team learns to hit something to the wide ass open opp field side. I have 12 year olds that can look at the field and determine there is a hole the other way and then hit it there.

After that, let?s see if we can not be a team full of dumbasses and win 2 out of 3 against an SEC team.
Pitching, catching, fielding, hitting, and for gods sake running the bases all have been shit. Straight Horse Crap.

Coaching, like, what the F are they doing? 7 out of our 9 batters have terrible approaches at the plate on any given night. We never put pressure on other teams when on the base path. We are literally anti-clutch at hitting. They had 7 months to get Hunter Hines ready for his swan song campaign. Just throw him outer half and he literally will fall down swinging at it. Mix speeds and outer half. k every time.

[Coursesuper]

If Florida and Texas A&M make a coaching move, I wonder which carcass is the most attractive to pillage. Florida has more prime prospects than MSU and TAM not far behind Florida on potential 1st Round talent.

A$M player s highly likely, Fla is wait and see, they have had major injuries in their rotation.

[StateDawg44]

Is Sullivan?s seat even warm?

[The Federalist Engineer]

Is Sullivan?s seat even warm?

Potentially, two straight losing seasons. 13-17 last year. I'm just making something up from nothing.

UF may not be as comfortable with Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M leap frogging them as MSU seems to be. They may be eye-balling the Bama coach.

Hell, UF might be eye balling Wes Johnson and Wes has made crazy lateral moves before. MSU-PC to Arkansas-PC. Leaving an MLB-PC job (In-Season) to be a collegiate PC (LSU) is a move without precedent until he made the move.

[Pancho]

LSU paid him way more than the Twins were paying him

[Coach34]

Sullivan's job is in no jeopardy

[Quaoarsking]

If Florida fired Kevin O'Sullivan, we should introduce him in Starkville as our new coach that afternoon.

Obviously I would pretend I never said anything negative about him, like I previous did for Ben Howland, the Dallas Cowboys, and Jeff Lebby.

[StarkVegasSteve]

If Florida fired Kevin O'Sullivan, we should introduce him in Starkville as our new coach that afternoon.

Obviously I would pretend I never said anything negative about him, like I previous did for Ben Howland, the Dallas Cowboys, and Jeff Lebby.

Correct. If they were ever stupid enough to fire Kevin O'Sullivan we would need the university plane in Gainesville to pick him up same day.

[Coursesuper]

[QUOTE=Quaoarsking;1646562]If Florida fired Kevin O'Sullivan, we should introduce him in Starkville as our new coach that afternoon.

Obviously I would pretend I never said anything negative about him, like I previous did for Ben Howland, the Dallas Cowboys, and Jeff Lebby.[/QUOTE

If there was even a smolder near his job we should be on the phone with his agent asap.

[confucius say]

A$M player s highly likely, Fla is wait and see, they have had major injuries in their rotation.

Weren't they without their Friday and Saturday guys?

[Coursesuper]

Weren't they without their Friday and Saturday guys?

yes

[KB21]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/week-8-sec-college-baseball-power-rankings/

12. Mississippi State
Overall: 16-12, 1-8 in SEC
Weekend record: 3-4

Mississippi State’s record may not be pretty with a 16-12 overall mark and a rough 1-8 start in SEC play, but the story behind those numbers is far less alarming than it may appear. The Bulldogs have faced an incredibly tough slate of top 10 teams to begin league play. Their series losses to Texas and Oklahoma were narrow, with the Bulldogs being outscored by just 13 runs over six games. Against LSU, they were swept but lost by a combined three runs in the first two contests. While its record doesn’t reflect it, Mississippi State has shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the country, and if they can tighten things up, they’re more than capable of turning their season around.

[StateDawg44]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/week-8-sec-college-baseball-power-rankings/

12. Mississippi State
Overall: 16-12, 1-8 in SEC
Weekend record: 3-4

Mississippi State’s record may not be pretty with a 16-12 overall mark and a rough 1-8 start in SEC play, but the story behind those numbers is far less alarming than it may appear. The Bulldogs have faced an incredibly tough slate of top 10 teams to begin league play. Their series losses to Texas and Oklahoma were narrow, with the Bulldogs being outscored by just 13 runs over six games. Against LSU, they were swept but lost by a combined three runs in the first two contests. While its record doesn’t reflect it, Mississippi State has shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the country, and if they can tighten things up, they’re more than capable of turning their season around.

This ranking is SEC teams only. So we are bottom quarter of the league.

Tighten up = get out of their own way

[NWADAWG]

"Our path to a regional is not very likely."

Understatedly he said.

Nothing stopping them from buying tickets like the rest of us.

[Pancho]

would they give an SEC team a 4 seed?

[EdwardDrayton]

Correct. If they were ever stupid enough to fire Kevin O'Sullivan we would need the university plane in Gainesville to pick him up same day.

Oh Lord. Then I'd have to find a way to stop hating him.

[EdwardDrayton]

would they give an SEC team a 4 seed?

It would save his job. ******

[StarkVegasSteve]

Oh Lord. Then I'd have to find a way to stop hating him.

I think we'd all get over it pretty quickly. He may be a prick, but he'd be our prick. Kind of like early years Dan.

[BeardoMSU]

I think we'd all get over it pretty quickly. He may be a prick, but he'd be our prick. Kind of like early years Dan.

What explains his issues at Florida, tho? Outside the weird rumors of infidelity, obv.

[EdwardDrayton]

What explains his issues at Florida, tho? Outside the weird rumors of infidelity, obv.

Do tell. I had not heard that.

[Coach34]

What explains his issues at Florida, tho? Outside the weird rumors of infidelity, obv.

Draft took a lot of talent so they were young last season. This year they lost their 2 best SP’s so far

[Turfdawg67]

What explains his issues at Florida, tho? Outside the weird rumors of infidelity, obv.

Rich, happy and less drive? Not saying that's it, but if it is, let's not pad his retirement and suffer 3+ more years.

[EdwardDrayton]

Need to settle on who it will be and right quick like as we say in the South. Cuz the only path to a regional for us is through the Land of Oz.

[Quaoarsking]

UPDATE: We met our benchmark against South Carolina to be on the pace for 13-17.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3✅
@ Alabama - maybe we get 1
Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


Still a tough road ahead of us, and I'm not sure that 13-17 gets us in anyway, so we probably need to take another from somebody.

[EdwardDrayton]

UPDATE: We met our benchmark against South Carolina to be on the pace for 13-17.



Still a tough road ahead of us, and I'm not sure that 13-17 gets us in anyway, so we probably need to take another from somebody.

As you alluded, possible. But highly improbable. What this series win does do is he keeps those in his 'let him finish out the season' corner. Otherwise we might have had a quite eventful Monday.

[Pancho]

He had shades of hugh freeze at the plantation on his face friday night in the press conference. this buys him some time.

[EdwardDrayton]

Rich, happy and less drive? Not saying that's it, but if it is, let's not pad his retirement and suffer 3+ more years.

See file C: Mainieri, Paul

[Coach34]

Manieri was a terrible hire and SC deserves what they get. He looks 75 years old out there. They went to Regionals 3/4 years now they wont win 10 SEC games

[Pancho]

guess they didn't know an up and comer

[EdwardDrayton]

Manieri was a terrible hire and SC deserves what they get. He looks 75 years old out there. They went to Regionals 3/4 years now they wont win 10 SEC games

I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

[Quaoarsking]

UPDATE: We gave ourselves some breathing room this weekend. We can either miss one of these benchmarks and get to 13-17 and have a good shot to get in, or hit all of the rest and get to 14-16 and should be pretty safe.

I still think we're less than 50-50 to make it (remember we're still 5-10 and need to go at least 8-7 over the last 15, maybe 9-6), but we can at least talk about the realistic possibility now.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3 ✅✅
@ Alabama - maybe we get 1 ✅✅
Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

[parabrave]

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
@ Alabama - maybe we get 1
Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

Go ahead and Pin this up top.

[Coach34]

RPI up to 35. Only given up 4 hits the last 2 Sundays combined.

Team starting to come together

[maroonmania]

RPI up to 35. Only given up 4 hits the last 2 Sundays combined.

Team starting to come together

Pitching staff looking much better. Parker and crew gave us every chance in the world to sweep this weekend.

[Coach34]

Pitching staff looking much better. Parker and crew gave us every chance in the world to sweep this weekend.

Yep. Looks like we have figured things out. Got to get more consistent AB's. Got to get Trout out of the 6 hole to keep from killing innings

[Dawgface]

Well if they’re going to turn it around do it in a big way. Would hate to see barely getting into a regional and as a result keeping bucket man.

[parabrave]

The real Q exposed.

https://youtu.be/wNonI1fksQw?t=13

Q I didn't know your name was Vicky Valencourt and you are the devil.

[EdwardDrayton]

Four more series wins??!!?? I want to believe buuuuut .............

[confucius say]

We close with the worst sec team this century. So that helps. And 3 of next 4 series are at home.
3-3 vs FLA and at Auburn
3-3 vs KY and vs Mississippi
3-0 at Mizzou
14-16.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

13-17 scares. If we had beaten Troy, won 2 of 3 in the Houston Astros tourney, and replaced Missouri on the schedule with Tennessee or Arkansas, then 13-17 definitely gives you an RPI high enough to make a regional. But with our weaker SEC schedule, and our nonconference losses, I think 14-16 is necessary. And I think 14-16 or 15-15 is definitely attainable.

[Coach34]

13-17 would be disappointing but it would depend who we lost to and who we beat. Dont forget the SEC Tourney could be a boost depending on Match-ups. Our conference RPI is ridiculous now just like basketball because of adding OU and Texas. The SEC is going to get 12 teams in the Tourney at worst. SC and Mizzou are the only teams out at this point

[CaptainObvious]

I think we need to take 3 out of 4 from the black bears! And win at last one tourney game in Hoover single elimination tourney. That is wild in itself as most likely it will affect attendance by any team that doesn't need the SEC tourney and any team at the bottom of the tourney pairings. Who is gonna go spend that money to watch your team play one game except the close teams like Auburn, Vandy, Bama and State. No top 10 teams will need a win in Hoover so their fans probably will not travel.

[Quaoarsking]

Thinking back to basketball, nobody worse than 8-10 in the conference had ever gotten an at-large bid to the Tournament, but this year the SEC was so strong and the resumes so good that 2 teams got in at 6-12.

In baseball, no one has ever gotten in at worse than 13-17 (in a 30-game season - a few times a team has gotten in at 12-17). But the 16-team SEC is stronger than ever, so maybe teams with worse records could get in. If we do end up with only 11 or 12 wins and sneak into the Tournament anyway, I would call that a complete failure of a season. Honestly, it's a failure unless we end up with a winning record (16-14 or better), and that will take us winning at least 11 of the last 15.

[Coach34]

Thinking back to basketball, nobody worse than 8-10 in the conference had ever gotten an at-large bid to the Tournament, but this year the SEC was so strong and the resumes so good that 2 teams got in at 6-12.

In baseball, no one has ever gotten in at worse than 13-17 (in a 30-game season - a few times a team has gotten in at 12-17). But the 16-team SEC is stronger than ever, so maybe teams with worse records could get in. If we do end up with only 11 or 12 wins and sneak into the Tournament anyway, I would call that a complete failure of a season. Honestly, it's a failure unless we end up with a winning record (16-14 or better), and that will take us winning at least 11 of the last 15.

Only a failure if we dont make a Super. Could he keep his job with a Regional Final? Maybe. Getting in and making a Super means we've had a good season- finishing in the Final 16.

[BigDawg81]

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

[Coach34]

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

why? Our offensive and pitching stats are Top 6 of the SEC

[Pancho]

Well if they’re going to turn it around do it in a big way. Would hate to see barely getting into a regional and as a result keeping bucket man.

Lemo does not sit on a bucket anymore. guess he hates that nickname

[Pancho]

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

sweep mizzou and win 2 in the other SEC series. It's easy math

[BigDawg81]

I don’t know about breathing room but I wouldn’t be surprised if State sweeps Florida cause they are 1-11 outside of Missouri which might be the worst baseball team in SEC history. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Florida wins the series.

[Coach34]

Florida has talent. So do we. I think we win the series. Keep winning series and we will be fine

[StateDawg44]

I can see a path to a regional this year honestly. There is talent and when things are clicking and we play error free baseball we look good. Don't leave the pitchers out to there too long and we can compete with some good teams..... good teams.

I also see the path to more underachieving, mediocre, baseball.

[parabrave]

Well if you're close to 15-15 they do look at how you finish the season. Id we finish really hot and go deep in the tourney then we can pull an OM and get in.

[BrunswickDawg]

Only a failure if we dont make a Super. Could he keep his job with a Regional Final? Maybe. Getting in and making a Super means we've had a good season- finishing in the Final 16.

The depth and total number of quality SEC programs is also why we are not going to be able to base successful seasons on whether or not we host a Regional or Super Regional either.
If 14 teams make the post season, there is no way that the Selection Committee lets more than 7 SEC teams host. We saw that last year.
Moving forward is it going to be all about where you finish, not where you play the games outside of Omaha.

[Tbonewannabe]

The depth and total number of quality SEC programs is also why we are not going to be able to base successful seasons on whether or not we host a Regional or Super Regional either.
If 14 teams make the post season, there is no way that the Selection Committee lets more than 7 SEC teams host. We saw that last year.
Moving forward is it going to be all about where you finish, not where you play the games outside of Omaha.

It is frustrating not to have post season at The Dude but I will take Omaha over having big Regionals.

[Cooterpoot]

I don't see us winning 9 conference games the rest of the way, but I also don't care since our fans have accepted mediocrity already anyway.

[Coach34]

I don't see us winning 9 conference games the rest of the way, but I also don't care since our fans have accepted mediocrity already anyway.

you didnt see us beating Bammer either. I'll be very surprised if he dont get to 14 wins. We have a solid shot at 15

[Cooterpoot]

you didnt see us beating Bammer either. I'll be very surprised if he dont get to 14 wins. We have a solid shot at 15

I didn't say anything about that series I don't think but hell, I can't remember. We own AL, so nothing would've surprised me in that series. FL is another we should win, but I won't be surprised if we don't. That's where I'm at. I think we still miss out on post season right now and a still think this is a mediocre SEC team at best. We could also win a couple games in the tournament and make post season in a rough regional if things fall right. This is what State baseball is now.
But if football starts moving forward, I'm good with it.

[confucius say]

I think we get into a regional.
And it would not surprise me if we are in a super.

We are old. Good bullpen.
Our pitching numbers and hitting are top half of league, and a top half of the sec team is capable of winning a regional.

This lineup and pitching roles has at least 2 more sec wins and beats Troy.

[maroonmania]

It is frustrating not to have post season at The Dude but I will take Omaha over having big Regionals.

One thing is we've really only hosted a regional 4 or 5 times since you've had to earn them. Back in the old days you could just outbid folks and get them and didn't have to be a top 16 seeded team. I can remember several times where we were the 2 seed at our own regional.

[StarkVegasSteve]

One thing is we've really only hosted a regional 4 or 5 times since you've had to earn them. Back in the old days you could just outbid folks and get them and didn't have to be a top 16 seeded team. I can remember several times where we were the 2 seed at our own regional.

Since they went away from the bid process, which I think was when they introduced Super Regionals ('99), we have hosted 6 Regionals and 3 Supers. And one of the Supers was because we won the FSU regional as a 2 and Clemson won the Myrtle Beach Regional as a 2 and we got the nod over them.

[Quaoarsking]

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
@ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

[Pancho]

I'm more concerned long term now that we know this will be an annual proceeding as long as we have the same HC. Some days we execute like a 4 seed, some days like a 3 for a moment or two.

[Todd4State]

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.

RPI at 48 as I type this. That said we can easily sweep Mizzou and get that 14th win so there is a still a path.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

UPDATE: After pulling 1 game ahead of the pace last week, we dropped back this week.

We can still get to 13-17 by taking 1 against Auburn and 2/3 in each of our last 3 series. I'm less confident than ever that 13-17 gets us into a Regional though, so we probably need to go 8-4 over the last 12, not just 7-5.

Chances look bleak. We blew a big opportunity this weekend.

I don't like our chances at 13-17. Our conference schedule is fairly weak compared to other SEC schedules. If we drop another non-conference game that will hurt. We need to shoot for 14-16 or 15-15. If we win 2 games in each series against Auburn, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, we will be 12-15 headed into the final Missouri series. We should win at least 2 against Missouri.

[Tbonewannabe]

RPI at 48 as I type this. That said we can easily sweep Mizzou and get that 14th win so there is a still a path.

What would losing a game to Mizzou do to our RPI? It feels like we need to sweep them along with getting to 13 at a minimum.

[Pancho]

we must have 12 wins before we see them or it won't matter

[Quaoarsking]

If we are 10-17 going into the Missouri series and sweep Missouri to drop them to 0-30, I don't think the committee is going to put much respect into that resulting 13-17 record.

[Cooterpoot]

Our best path to a regional is with a new staff next season

[Quaoarsking]

Our best path is to fire Lemonis tomorrow, be a little better with the interim and sneak into a Regional as a 3 this year, and then dominate next year with a new coach.

[parabrave]

Our only path is tow get to the tourney championship game.

[Todd4State]

What would losing a game to Mizzou do to our RPI? It feels like we need to sweep them along with getting to 13 at a minimum.

A loss to them- assuming we take of business the rest of the time which is a big assumption- would be devastating to our RPI. Probably enough to warrant keeping MSU out.

[Todd4State]

If we are 10-17 going into the Missouri series and sweep Missouri to drop them to 0-30, I don't think the committee is going to put much respect into that resulting 13-17 record.

I don't either. Our other problem is Auburn is really the only other top 20 RPI team we play so we really don't have a lot of opportunities to make a jump.

I'm not sure that 14 would get us in either to be honest. Will probably depend on how we do in the SEC Tournament.

[Coach34]

13 SEC wins and we are in a Regional. This isn’t hard.

Can we get to 13? I don’t know

[Quaoarsking]

13 SEC wins and we are in a Regional. This isn’t hard.

Can we get to 13? I don’t know

It is hard. Looking over the last decade, 13-17 teams only make it about half the time, and when they do, they usually have better RPIs than we do.

[Coach34]

It is hard. Looking over the last decade, 13-17 teams only make it about half the time, and when they do, they usually have better RPIs than we do.

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

[Quaoarsking]

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

Last year all 5 13-17 SEC teams had RPIs in the top 30. They didn't get picked solely because of their records, they got picked because of their entire resumes. Our RPI and entire resume won't be nearly as good if we get only finish 13-17.

Am I saying we definitely won't make it we're 13-17? No, I think we could sneak in depending on how soft the bubble is, but I kinda doubt we would. At the very least, there's no reason at all to insist that we will. The committee arbitrarily picks different criteria to matter more or matter less every year. It's impossible to ever be super confident about any bubble team.

[HoopsDawg]

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

13 wins won't do it if 3 of those are vs Missouri

[Coach34]

13 wins and we are in. Book it

[sandjunky]

13 wins and we are in. Book it

Not with MU having to be 3 of those especially if they are 0-27 going into series

Book it

[Quaoarsking]

13 wins won't do it if 3 of those are vs Missouri

Paradoxically, 13 wins won't do it if we lose 1 or more games to Missouri either

[Todd4State]

Last year all 5 13-17 SEC teams had RPIs in the top 30. They didn't get picked solely because of their records, they got picked because of their entire resumes. Our RPI and entire resume won't be nearly as good if we get only finish 13-17.

Am I saying we definitely won't make it we're 13-17? No, I think we could sneak in depending on how soft the bubble is, but I kinda doubt we would. At the very least, there's no reason at all to insist that we will. The committee arbitrarily picks different criteria to matter more or matter less every year. It's impossible to ever be super confident about any bubble team.

This. And our problem right now is RPI. Conference expansion probably hurts us in this instance because usually the last week of the season we're playing a team with a RPI of 30 or higher. Mizzou's RPI is 153 as I type this.

So it's a double edged sword because yeah losing kills you but winning doesn't really help us much either.

We really need to get hot this week because Auburn's RPI is 4. If we win a couple of games and the Governor's Cup we could make a jump and easily get in the 30's maybe low 20's. And I may be a bit conservative there in that estimate.

[Coach34]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

[Coach34]

People were saying 6-12 Texas wasnt going to make the NCAA Tourney in basketball- yet they did. Baseball will follow the same path

[Quaoarsking]

People were saying 6-12 Texas wasnt going to make the NCAA Tourney in basketball- yet they did. Baseball will follow the same path

The same path?? You're not even making a parallel argument! Put a little more effort into your posts!

Texas basketball was a different path. You would cite them as an example if you were arguing that we could still get selected this year at 12-18 (or 10-20 if you want to line up the percentages exactly). Texas had a decent enough NET but a bad conference record.

What you should be saying is "A lot of people thought Vanderbilt (NET 48) wouldn't make it in basketball, but I knew they would because 8-10 has generally been good enough lately" - that's what fits what you're trying to argue.

You know we've all hit rock bottom when I have to correct people's arguments against my own points here...

[Cooterpoot]

Lemonis has a better chance of getting in after 13 drinks at Rick's than with 13 wins in conference, because our schedule sucked. We got gifted a good schedule and blew it.

[Todd4State]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

If our RPI ends up in the 30's- then yeah.

Really depends on the combination of the 13 wins. Like 13 wins with a sweep of Mizzou probably gets us in but if we lose a game to Mizzou then probably not.

We have RPI 4, RPI 22 for four games, RPI 30, and RPI 153 left in conference play. Other than the Governor's Cup our OOC opponents RPI is really bad so we are essentially playing Mizzou 5 x. Right now we're at 43 in RPI.

In other words again- IF we're going to make a move it HAS TO BE now. And we also have no margin for error for a "that's baseball" game against Mizzou, Memphis, or North Alabama.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

What if we win 13 conference games, but lose all remaining non-conference games and our first game in the SEC tourney?

[Pancho]

Mingione just won a series with the vols. and we have lemoms

[sleepy dawg]

More than likely we'll need 14 wins. Our non-conference is holding us back. We probably have a better chance to win the tournament than get to 14 wins.

[msstate7]

1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou

That's the path.

[CaptainObvious]

1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou

That's the path.

I think this is correct and I see no way this happens.

I see 11-19 SEC.

[Pancho]

If Hungate is out, we have a huge void in the pen.

[StateDawg44]

If Hungate is out, we have a huge void in the pen.

Yeah we cooked.

Although, we've been cooked with or without Hungate.

I hate it for him though if it's something serious.

[DEDawg]

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

This is in no way as straightforward as you say. RPI matters a ton on those 13 in teams and we most likely don?t get there on RPI. Auburn helps and that is about it.

[Tbonewannabe]

More than likely we'll need 14 wins. Our non-conference is holding us back. We probably have a better chance to win the tournament than get to 14 wins.

We have a better chance sweeping every series left than winning the SEC tournament. If we did win our first two games, we would have our Sunday guy vs Friday guy of a top 4 seed. We then have Noah Sullivan vs the Saturday guy.

Then probably someone like Charlie Foster or Dane Burns vs a Sunday guy. Then whoever has an arm left vs a midweek guy.

[PGHBulldogBG]

As bad as Missouri has been in conference play, I have no doubt that we lose at least 1 to them. I don't think this team has the coaching or mental ability to sweep an SEC team. I think we can take 1 against Auburn, 1 against UK, 2 out of 4 against Ole Miss and 2 of 3 from Missouri. That is best case based on what I have seen of this team. I see 11-19 or 12-18 at this point. I guess the one positive from that is we will get a new staff and be able to reset.

[Cooterpoot]

If Hungate is out, we have a huge void in the pen.

Do we? LOL he hasn't been great. That pen is plenty deep & plenty short on talent. We knew there was a chance that would be the case and it's turned out to be true.

[KOdawg1]

1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou

That's the path.

So you're saying the season is over?

Correct.

[Cowbell]

1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou

That's the path.

This may be the most win-win situation I've ever seen as a state fan. We win either way here.

[KOdawg1]

This may be the most win-win situation I've ever seen as a state fan. We win either way here.

I could argue barely sneaking in a tournament, quickly getting bounced, and getting stuck with Lemon would be considered a "lose" situation.

[sandjunky]

I could argue barely sneaking in a tournament, quickly getting bounced, and getting stuck with Lemon would be considered a "lose" situation.

Get queasy reading that scenario

[DownwardDawg]

As bad as Missouri has been in conference play, I have no doubt that we lose at least 1 to them. I don't think this team has the coaching or mental ability to sweep an SEC team. I think we can take 1 against Auburn, 1 against UK, 2 out of 4 against Ole Miss and 2 of 3 from Missouri. That is best case based on what I have seen of this team. I see 11-19 or 12-18 at this point. I guess the one positive from that is we will get a new staff and be able to reset.
Missouri will win the series. 2-1

[Coach34]

Missouri will win the series. 2-1

Day drunks are fun

[StarkVegasSteve]

Day drunks are fun

Our national championship team lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou AT HOME. And Bednar was lit up. They've had our number the last few years for whatever reason.

[Coach34]

Our national championship team lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou AT HOME. And Bednar was lit up. They've had our number the last few years for whatever reason.

Oh I know- but it was a different team. That team won 8 SEC games. This one really has a good shot at 0-30. They are rarely competitive. And if you have watched our team this season- we will hit score alot of runs vs Mizzou. We hit mediocre pitching very well.

[DownwardDawg]

Day drunks are fun

If only I drank......

[DownwardDawg]

Our national championship team lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou AT HOME. And Bednar was lit up. They've had our number the last few years for whatever reason.

Yep. Watch it happen.

[Cooterpoot]

We aren't losing two to MO. But if we did, wooo weee! That might be a USC/Kiffin situation there!

[Coursesuper]

We aren't losing two to MO. But if we did, wooo weee! That might be a USC/Kiffin situation there!

Selfishly hoping for that this weekend.

[confucius say]

Selfishly hoping for that this weekend.

You're hoping we lose?

[Coach34]

I wont be surprised if we win the Auburn series. I also wont be surprised if we get swept. Hopefully they come out tonight and battle. The season is not over but the boat is taking on alot of water. Keep rowing.

[Coursesuper]

You're hoping we lose?

No, just don't think we can win there and may get swept.

[Tbonewannabe]

I wont be surprised if we win the Auburn series. I also wont be surprised if we get swept. Hopefully they come out tonight and battle. The season is not over but the boat is taking on alot of water. Keep rowing.

Not that I want to compare to anything Ole Miss but they won a National Title when they shouldn't have even been in a Regional. That is why you have to let it play out. Baseball is weird that way.

[Cowbell]

Our national championship team lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou AT HOME. And Bednar was lit up. They've had our number the last few years for whatever reason.

I will never forget this. They kicked our teeth in. Followed it up with the two run rules in the tourney. That's when a large part of this board started to question Lemonis.

[Pancho]

and it continues

[R2Dawg]

I will never forget this. They kicked our teeth in. Followed it up with the two run rules in the tourney. That's when a large part of this board started to question Lemonis.

That Mizzou series cost us an SEC title; it was large. Yes we made up for it later but no doubt it was a big, big let down.

[Quaoarsking]

Another update: We are actually still matching the pace to get to 13-17 described in the original post. We need to go 6-3 over our last 9 to be in the discussion for a Regional, 7-2 to probably get in. Sweeping Missouri is a must, and then hopefully get 4 of other 6.

It's so frustrating because we are way too talented to just be 7-14 right now. Very poor job from our coaching staff.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

[KOdawg1]

The end is in sight. We're almost there.

[Todd4State]

Another update: We are actually still matching the pace to get to 13-17 described in the original post. We need to go 6-3 over our last 9 to be in the discussion for a Regional, 7-2 to probably get in. Sweeping Missouri is a must, and then hopefully get 4 of other 6.

It's so frustrating because we are way too talented to just be 7-14 right now. Very poor job from our coaching staff.

We have a RPI issue and a quad 1 win issue. Kentucky's RPI isn't great either and Ole Miss may be in the 20's when we play them. We all know about Mizzou. Winning the series against Kentucky and Ole Miss might get us in the 30's. And we can't afford to lose any midweek games.

Our RPI is 45 as I type this.

[Cooterpoot]

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

Thud

[Coursesuper]

Thud

Well played!

[EdwardDrayton]

Thud

LOL!!

[EdwardDrayton]

We have won TWO of SEVEN conference series. Anybody wanna bet we win three of the last three?!!??

[somebodyshotmypaw]

We have a RPI issue and a quad 1 win issue. Kentucky's RPI isn't great either and Ole Miss may be in the 20's when we play them. We all know about Mizzou. Winning the series against Kentucky and Ole Miss might get us in the 30's. And we can't afford to lose any midweek games.

Our RPI is 45 as I type this.

13-17 normally gets an SEC team in. But I don’t believe we will have the RPI necessary. If we had Arkansas on the schedule instead of Missouri then 13-17 would produce a higher RPI. If we had beaten Troy and won 2 of 3 in the Houston tourney then we would have a highe RPI. I don’t think 13-17 will get us in. I think we need 14, and possibly even 15 wins.

[sandjunky]

This team has the ?not it? factor going for it

[Cooterpoot]

Gifted a schedule, shit the bed

[99jc]

I wont be surprised if we win the Auburn series. I also wont be surprised if we get swept. Hopefully they come out tonight and battle. The season is not over but the boat is taking on alot of water. Keep rowing.

It amuses me the way you always cover your ass !

[sandjunky]

It amuses me the way you always cover your ass !

It?s a skill for sure

[confucius say]

Gifted a schedule, shit the bed

Our Strength of Schedule is 11 in the country.

[CaptainObvious]

State's team's path to a Regional is to buy tickets to the Oxford Regional to watch the arch-rival work their way to a Super Regional! These guys couldn't find a Greyhound Bus Ride to "play" in a Regional!

[Cooterpoot]

Our Strength of Schedule is 11 in the country.

Our SEC schedule was a gift compared to a lot of the conference. We're 13 and 8 teams in this conference have tougher ones to this point. We're about to finish near the bottom of the conference with a middle of the pack schedule for the SEC.

[confucius say]

Our SEC schedule was a gift compared to a lot of the conference. We're 13 and 8 teams in this conference have tougher ones to this point. We're about to finish near the bottom of the conference with a middle of the pack schedule for the SEC.

A middle of the pack schedule in the sec is not a gift.
We're not good. But the idea that we got an easy schedule is false.

[Cooterpoot]

A middle of the pack schedule in the sec is not a gift.
We're not good. But the idea that we got an easy schedule is false.

Sure it is, those teams ahead of us with tougher schedules managed quite fine for the most part. We caught a break we couldn't cash in because this staff failed. It's not like we got stuck with our damn football schedule that's killing tgat staff.

[msstate7]

1 vs OM Tuesday
1 at auburn
2 vs Kentucky
2 vs OM
Sweep mizzou

That's the path.

Came close to meeting/exceeding this week, but alas, 2 1-run losses. No confidence in this team at all, but I do think the path still exists.

[Pancho]

This stuff is simple for the several baseball money boosters. They have 2 choices and that is it. Continue the rinse and repeat kinda lackluster teams Lemo fields for a year or two more or simply say they want to go in another direction. Plug pullin time is what i fully feel is the best option currently but one never knows how the elite thinkers who provide the cash will react in these situations. A new HC might limit access in areas which make them feel entitled and very important. There will be only 1 reason for this team not getting at least 2 from UK, 2 from the sharks and seeping Mizzou and he is the reason for the entire current discussuion.

[StarkVegasSteve]

This stuff is simple for the several baseball money boosters. They have 2 choices and that is it. Continue the rinse and repeat kinda lackluster teams Lemo fields for a year or two more or simply say they want to go in another direction. Plug pullin time is what i fully feel is the best option currently but one never knows how the elite thinkers who provide the cash will react in these situations. A new HC might limit access in areas which make them feel entitled and very important. There will be only 1 reason for this team not getting at least 2 from UK, 2 from the sharks and seeping Mizzou and he is the reason for the entire current discussuion.

The good news is that the actual money movers and shakers do not care about access. They're going to get the access they want no matter who the coach is due to their relationship with the athletic dept. The people who are going to be pissed when a new coach limits their access to the team is going to be the LFL crew that buys them and their parents drinks at The Landing and Two Bros so they'll get access to the players.

[Pancho]

Then the question is , how sick are they of the current situation.

[Coursesuper]

The good news is that the actual money movers and shakers do not care about access. They're going to get the access they want no matter who the coach is due to their relationship with the athletic dept. The people who are going to be pissed when a new coach limits their access to the team is going to be the LFL crew that buys them and their parents drinks at The Landing and Two Bros so they'll get access to the players.

This^

[Coach34]

Then the question is , how sick are they of the current situation.

We are still paying off our best stadium in the country causing baseball to lose money overall in addition to the price of everything going up. The fact that we are banging our chests about getting football NIL up to 10-11MM while its a min of 15MM to really compete tells me we arent about to pay big money for a new coach.

[Pancho]

the other post mentioning potential new HC's are all better than what we have. I was wishy washy on Lemo from day 1 and he has proven my speculation by taking the program down. this isn't a football discussion. If lebby can win 6 or 7 annually then he is a marvelous HC. MSU baseball expects more than that and should be getting it. Lemo can't do it.

[Quaoarsking]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-april-30/

Despite everything, Baseball America has us at #4 in the First Four Out. If we can win the series this weekend, we can probably get into the field of 64.

[Coach34]

winning takes care of everything. If we had won the last 2 weekends- Lemon would still have a job. Really need this series. Let's see some good ball this weekend

[Commercecomet24]

I could be totally wrong but i think the team catches fire now.

[Todd4State]

I could be totally wrong but i think the team catches fire now.

It kind of feels like it.

Or maybe we both have gas.

[Tbonewannabe]

A middle of the pack schedule in the sec is not a gift.
We're not good. But the idea that we got an easy schedule is false.

You almost couldn't choose your own SEC schedule and make it easier.

[Pancho]

i agree with that

[confucius say]

You almost couldn't choose your own SEC schedule and make it easier.

Texas. 19-2. Running away the sec. Looking at maybe the best sec record in modern history.

At Ok. 11-10. Winning sec record.

At LSU. 14-7. Top 3 in sec.

USCe. 5-16. Next to worst team in league.

At bama. 12-9. Winning sec record.

Florida. 8-13. We will see. Won 10 of last 12.

At Auburn. 11-10. Winning sec record.

80-67. One of the toughest in the league to date. We haven't had the benefit of playing Mizzou yet like 7 others have.

[R2Dawg]

I could be totally wrong but i think the team catches fire now.

We'll probably win UK and OM series then lose to Mizzou and not make regional due to that. Most Miss St thing likely to occur.

[Quaoarsking]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-april-30/

Despite everything, Baseball America has us at #4 in the First Four Out. If we can win the series this weekend, we can probably get into the field of 64.

D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/2025-d1baseball-field-of-64-april-30/

[StarkVegasSteve]

D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/2025-d1baseball-field-of-64-april-30/

It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.

[Todd4State]

It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.

That's what happens when you're a blueblood.

[Quaoarsking]

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

[Coach34]

RPI to 38

[ScoobaDawg]

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

Start talking about 14-15 sec wins.....that would be a wonderful end to the season.

[Quaoarsking]

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.

[Jarius]

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.

If we get to 14 SEC wins we should be a lock. Would love to sweep tomorrow. Next weekend will be electric.

[Coach34]

4 more SEC wins are we are in

[Todd4State]

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

Yeah. I think a strong finish- 2/3 against UK (check), 2/3 against Ole Miss, and a sweep against Mizzou might be good enough to get us a 2 seed potentially.

Also, the committee looks at what you did your last ten games and we are in that territory now more than likely.

Could end up with a RPI in the low 30's high 20's with a strong finish.

[HoopsDawg]

4 more SEC wins are we are in

5

[R2Dawg]

4 more SEC wins are we are in

It would suck to draw a #4 MSU team in regional.

[MetEdDawg]

5

I'm afraid this might be the correct answer.

Three wins against Missouri sounds good, but they are winless in conference. Winless. 0-23 with an RPI over 150.

It might take 5 more wins to get us there because our upper 30s RPI is going to take a late season hit with North Alabama and 3 against Missouri.

[Quaoarsking]

Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
✅✅✅ Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

[Coach34]

RPI sitting at 31 currently

[EdwardDrayton]

Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.

It was very hard to imagine this without an in season move. Thankfully Zac made the move and the team has responded. Still work to do but we have a chance. Incredible.

[ScoobaDawg]

15 sec wins is seriously creeping into possibility. Im not crazy enough to type the next number.

[KOdawg1]

Need 4 of the next 6. Completely doable at this point.

I had written this team off, but they've responded with the coaching change. They're much more relaxed and aren't pressing as much. They've actually been... dare I say... fun? to watch?

Let's win the series vs. the Confederates next week and then sweep Mizzou to get to .500 in league play and then go 17 up somebody else's regional.

[KB21]

I've been saying the talent has always been here. Recruiting has never been our issue. Maximizing the players we recruit has, and I can't say for certain that it's because of how we approach player development or the cultural effect of having a head coach who is essentially completely hands off on everything. Maybe it's a combination of the two, but it just seems to me that our coaching is more in tune with our players now, and our players are more in tune with the situations now. Confidence is such a big aspect of baseball, and this team has played with some confidence and swagger over the past 4 games.

[maroonmania]

Need 4 of the next 6. Completely doable at this point.

I had written this team off, but they've responded with the coaching change. They're much more relaxed and aren't pressing as much. They've actually been... dare I say... fun? to watch?

Let's win the series vs. the Confederates next week and then sweep Mizzou to get to .500 in league play and then go 17 up somebody else's regional.

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.

[EdwardDrayton]

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.


https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1HsfCf8vcA/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[KOdawg1]

Yep, and we should flood the field and cancel the UNA game. That one is an RPI killer.

Absolutely. I have no idea why we always schedule that game for the last week. It doesn't make sense

[Quaoarsking]

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2025-d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-may-6/

3 seed in Tallahassee in the latest D1B bracket. Not even one of the last 4 in. Things are looking good.

I hope we can play our way up to a 2 seed, but if we can't, I hope our 2 is a mid-major.

[Todd4State]

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2025-d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-may-6/

3 seed in Tallahassee in the latest D1B bracket. Not even one of the last 4 in. Things are looking good.

I hope we can play our way up to a 2 seed, but if we can't, I hope our 2 is a mid-major.

This week will tell the tale of whether we are a 3 or a 2. Our RPI last I looked is 35. Two wins over number 17-18 ish Ole Miss should be enough to get us into the 20's or low 30's which is definitely 2 seed range.

I wouldn't be surprised if the committee looks at conference W/L record more than RPI because conference realignment has caused some really wonky things to happen in the ACC. Like Duke at 14-10 in conference with a RPI of 41. I mean, there is a chance they could win the conference and their RPI might not get much higher than the 30's.

That could end up being to MSU's benefit because if we win 2 this weekend and sweep Mizzou that puts us at 15-15. And if I remember correctly I don't believe the committee has ever left a SEC team out of the regionals with a .500 record. If I'm wrong it would be very unusual and our RPI is definitely in the range of being included in the field.

But as far as being a 2- I think there is a realistic chance we get there. I think we're closer to that than being left out.

That said, if we get swept this weekend we're probably done.

[Todd4State]

Absolutely. I have no idea why we always schedule that game for the last week. It doesn't make sense

It really doesn't. Winning won't kill our RPI, but losing would. And in baseball there is always that chance.

[The Federalist Engineer]

If MSU got a 2 seed, then Troy gets a 3 seed. We still might play in Tallahassee.

If this happened, would love that matchup. MSU lost to Troy using a starter and mid reliever that have no business in an SEC roster. Two cats that need to pack their bags for permanent departure after final exams this semester.

But I would like the Conway or Morgantown sites more.

Parker could get a Super versus Butch. If he eliminates Butch in Super, that would be cool. Auburn does not scare MSU in the least. Any program with Greasy Foxhall is trash. Or Parker drags his nuts over Sabins, Wes Johnson, and Coggin. This would Roman Style transfer of power. No elections. You meet in the battlefield.

[Coach34]

We go 2-1 vs Mississippi we will be a 2 seed no doubt barring losing the series to Mizzou

15-15 in the SEC and we are a solid 2

[TNDawg35]

Has anyone else noticed Gotro is actually coaching hitters instead of charting the whole time? I saw it in the KY series.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Has anyone else noticed Gotro is actually coaching hitters instead of charting the whole time? I saw it in the KY series.

Jake has been coaching hitters the entire year. He both charts and coaches during the games. He's done it since he's been here.

[Quaoarsking]

11-15 now. Really big game Sunday.

If we lose Sunday, we should be in if we sweep Missouri, which would put us at 14-16, but if we lose 1 and end up 13-17, we're going to be sweating it out for a week hoping to sneak in. And if we lose the series, we're out and deserve to be.

If we win Sunday, we can absorb a loss to Missouri and still get to 14-16.

[Todd4State]

11-15 now. Really big game Sunday.

If we lose Sunday, we should be in if we sweep Missouri, which would put us at 14-16, but if we lose 1 and end up 13-17, we're going to be sweating it out for a week hoping to sneak in. And if we lose the series, we're out and deserve to be.

If we win Sunday, we can absorb a loss to Missouri and still get to 14-16.

Really need to see what our RPI ends up after game three. We're sitting at 32 as I type this. So we really had a zero net gain today. A win might get us in the 20's. A loss I would guess could drop us into the 34-36 range. Which shows how important game three is for us.

But at the 28 range I just don't think we can afford to lose to Mizzou. Texas A&M had a similar RPI to us coming into today and their loss to Mizzou dropped them 10 points in RPI. I just don't think we can absorb that no matter what happens tomorrow.

The thing is to- Mizzou beating A&M that one game might actually be what gets us in because if we have the same record as them and a much higher RPI that could be the tiebreaker.

[Todd4State]

We go 2-1 vs Mississippi we will be a 2 seed no doubt barring losing the series to Mizzou

15-15 in the SEC and we are a solid 2

Our problem right now is where we place in the SEC. We're looking like we're around the 12th-13th place team. Our RPI is better. It's OK. Not great.

I just think that when the committee looks at the entire resume and takes everything into account we're probably looking at a 3 seed.

Now, a run in the SEC Tournament might change that. But I think that's where we're going to be projected when the season ends next week.

[Quaoarsking]

UPDATE: We are now 12-15. What a turnaround!

If we sweep Missouri, we move to 15-15 and probably get a 2 seed.
As long as we win the series, we should be safely in.
If we go 1-2, we will be sweating it up until the bracket reveal.
If we get swept, we're out and deserve to be.


...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
✅✅✅ Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
❌✅✅ Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
@ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3


If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

[Coach34]

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

[Todd4State]

RPI currently 32. That's borderline 2 seed and with four games against sub 100 RPI teams we have no margin for error.

[HoopsDawg]

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

Wait. Did you just tell our fans to suck it? Lame

[HoopsDawg]

RPI currently 32. That's borderline 2 seed and with four games against sub 100 RPI teams we have no margin for error.

I don't think a 2 or 3 matters that much. Could get us a softer 1.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

Lemon is off to the big regional final

[HoopsDawg]

Lemon is off to the big regional final

LOL

[BeardoMSU]

Suck it bitches!!! This team is Regional bound

Who are you yelling at, lol?

[BeardoMSU]

So is 14 enough or do we need the Mizzou sweep?

[Quaoarsking]

So is 14 enough or do we need the Mizzou sweep?

While you can never say 100% sure with a committee, and teams with RPIs in the 20s have gotten left out before, I think we should be totally safe at 14-16.

[EdwardDrayton]

Kudos to Zac for making the move in season and giving us this chance. Doesn't happen without his decision.

[HoopsDawg]

So is 14 enough or do we need the Mizzou sweep?

2 out of 3 should do it.

[Todd4State]

I don't think a 2 or 3 matters that much. Could get us a softer 1.

It could. It's hard to tell what the committee could do. I think Kendall Roger's projection was pretty accurate personally.

[KOdawg1]

What's awesome about this is we can enjoy sneaking back in the tournament and not have to worry about Lemonis keeping his job.

Selmon deserves all the credit in the world for making the move when he did.

[Todd4State]

So is 14 enough or do we need the Mizzou sweep?

I think the one thing we have going for us is I suspect (just a guess) that the committee will look at RPI less this year because of conference realignment causing some teams to play lower RPI teams in conference play- for example MSU vs Mizzou. A SEC team having a RPI of 150 is unheard almost for a SEC team but not just that there are some ACC teams with low RPI's as well.

So, what this has caused is teams that having good seasons in conference but with much lower RPI's than they typically should have. Virginia is a good example. They're 13-10 in ACC play but their RPI is 61. Duke has an outside chance of winning the ACC and their RPI is 36- which is worse than ours.

I think the committee is going to look at where teams place in their conference some and base some decisions based on that. That's why I think we're a 3 seed because if you look at where MSU is in the SEC standings we're 12-13 depending on what Kentucky does this weekend and I think the SEC is only going to get 14 teams in. So, I think if we can get to 11 or so in the league standings I think we can get a 2.

BUT to do that I don't think we can afford a loss the rest of the regular season. A&M lost 11 RPI points when they lose to Mizzou. So if we lose a game I do think we would get in still but we would almost without question be a 3 seed. If we lose two games we could be in big trouble- in others words I don't think we could get in with 13 SEC wins. And 14 with a loss to North Alabama and one loss to Mizzou might have the same effect.

[Todd4State]

What's awesome about this is we can enjoy sneaking back in the tournament and not have to worry about Lemonis keeping his job.

Selmon deserves all the credit in the world for making the move when he did.

I think the fear there was more our team getting hot and going on a run. If he made a SR I don't think we would have fired him. I don't think this team makes one anyway.

[EdwardDrayton]

I think the fear there was more our team getting hot and going on a run. If he made a SR I don't think we would have fired him. I don't think this team makes one anyway.

There is a low probability of us winning a regional. If we make one at all.