Guessing OM Scholarships and Bowl Ban (Using NCAA Penalty Matrix)

[Big4Dawg]

Found the listing on OM from an OM fan on Reddit. Used the new NCAA Penalty Matrix.

This is assuming they wipe away all of the Leo Lewis stuff.

Let's also assume the throw out everything from Pre-Freeze HC tenure. Still 4 to 8 year bowl ban and 80 scholarships.

I know that sounds extreme but it's also the rules in place and I think that is kinda the point.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/...ure-pack-punch

Now that the new structure is poised to be implemented this August, among the most frequently stated reactions to it is how its penalty guidelines will make potential rule-breakers realize there’s no reward for the risk.

Seeking stronger sanctions and a clearer “if you do this, then you can expect that” model for violations and penalties, the Enforcement Working Group developed a matrix that succinctly lays out the consequences that can be expected for various breaches of conduct.

“It was clear we needed to have stiffer and more predictable penalties so that people who were doing the ‘risk-reward’ calculation would think twice whether it was in their interests to engage in bad behavior,” said working group chair Ed Ray, the president at Oregon State University. “Having penalty guidelines – and having the penalties that are in those guidelines be more severe than what we have now – was a good way of sending clear signals to people.”
.....
The working group surveyed the membership from the start and quickly encountered a “we’re not going to take it anymore” kind of response. Harris said the “risk/reward” analysis was a recurring theme.
....
“We provided a range, as is done with sentencing guidelines, where the judge has to pretty much stay within those unless there are extraordinary circumstances,” he said.
....
“It is formulaic in a sense, but there is a subjective element to that formula,” Harris said. “The committee will slot a case and figure out the penalties, but the committee has the discretion to depart from the guidelines, which account for mitigating and aggravating factors, if there truly are extraordinary circumstances.”

[mstatefan91]

[Homedawg]

Found the listing on OM from an OM fan on Reddit. Used the new NCAA Penalty Matrix.

This is assuming they wipe away all of the Leo Lewis stuff.

Let's also assume the throw out everything from Pre-Freeze HC tenure. Still 4 to 8 year bowl ban and 80 scholarships.

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

[mstatefan91]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

3-4 year bowl ban, 40-50 schollies, show causes all around. 10 years of pain and suffering for OM is what my guess is.

[ShotgunDawg]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

So how does the NCAA do this while setting precedent?

Do they throw the matrix in the garbage and start over?

It's clear the matrix was designed with the thought that no one would cheat this badly, but, since it did, now what?

[ShotgunDawg]

3-4 year bowl ban, 40-50 schollies, show causes all around. 10 years of pain and suffering for OM is what my guess is.

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

[fader2103]

I suspect a 4 million dollar raise for Freeze*****

[Big4Dawg]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

I agree it's bogus but it's also what they set up.

[Randolph Dupree]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

[blacklistedbully]

If I understand Really Clark's consistent position, he does not think the COI is required by rule to punish each violation specifically...rather he believes they will group violations into categories, then use the multiple violations within each category to determine , "Standard, Aggravated, or Mitigated".

[Big4Dawg]

If I understand Really Clark's consistent position, he does not think the COI is required by rule to punish each violation specifically...rather he believes they will group violations into categories, then use the multiple violations within each category to determine , "Standard, Aggravated, or Mitigated".

Reading the article, it isn't very clear. So what if they have a level 1 and level 2? the level 2s just go away?

[Reason2succeed]

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

Exactly! People throw out arbitrary numbers with no justification and gen say those of us saying DP are the irrational ones. No, I looked at what is in the matrix and agree that it would be insane and that OM would prefer a 1 or 2 year DP over those sanctions. This frees the NCAA of the legal retaliation of offending the repeat offender guidelines if OM self imposed the DP.

Anything less and the NCAA gets evicerated by the media for deviating from their own matrix on the first case. Then programs know that when they are caught they can just keep cheating and put the NCAA in the same pickle again.

[QuadrupleOption]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

The minimum for each Level 1 standard violation is a 12.5% reduction. I'm guessing (because I can't find an actual explanation) that percentage is counted against a full 25 scholarships per year.
If the COI throws out every violation that UM is disputing, they will be hit with a MINIMUM 30 scholarship reduction.
If the COI agrees with the investigation's findings but imposes the MINIMUM penalty in each case, the are looking at 45 scholarships lost. Minimum.

I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 scholarships, show causes for every coach named, and at least a 4 year bowl ban. It should be an 8 year ban, but if they lose 60 scholarships they won't be making a bowl game in the next 10 years anyway so it's a moot point.

[blacklistedbully]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

[FISHDAWG]

Reading the article, it isn't very clear. So what if they have a level 1 and level 2? the level 2s just go away?

so does that mean the "moral of the story" says, if you're gonna cheat then cheat BIG ?

[BrunswickDawg]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

Your Show Cause estimate could be right - didn't Saunders get 12 years?

[Gutter Cobreh]

I'm sure when the matrix was put into place, no one would have thought there would be a school as stupid as TSUN to commit this many violations and continue to cheat while under investigation.

17 those $h**birds!

[Bubb Rubb]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

This is essentially the death penalty. If they only allowed Ole Miss to sign 9 scholarship players a year for 4 years, that would be MUCH worse than them killing the program for a year and starting over.

They would be playing Ed Generro Iron Man Two Way Football in the SEC with those kind of scholarship limitations. This is why I don't think the COI will go by the matrix literally. I think they will categorize them and penalize generally.

I still think we'll see 35-40 scholarships over 4 years with a two year ban and a freeze show cause.

[ShotgunDawg]

This is essentially the death penalty. If they only allowed Ole Miss to sign 9 scholarship players a year for 4 years, that would be MUCH worse than them killing the program for a year and starting over.

They would be playing Ed Generro Iron Man Two Way Football in the SEC with those kind of scholarship limitations. This is why I don't think the COI will go by the matrix literally. I think they will categorize them and penalize generally.

I still think we'll see 35-40 scholarships over 4 years with a two year ban and a freeze show cause.

Maybe. Will be interesting to see how they come up with that and how it affects the long term future of NCAA enforcement.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm sure when the matrix was put into place, no one would have thought there would be a school as stupid as TSUN to commit this many violations and continue to cheat while under investigation.

17 those $h**birds!

This we can all agree on