New Lineup tonight vs. Southern

[Rex54]

20 AB?s is a little over 20% of his total AB?s but more importantly, it is his LAST 20 AB?s that completely debunks your statement that he hasn?t had an increase in K?s. 6 of his 19 K?s came over his last 20 AB?s which definitely contradicts your statement that he hasn?t had an increase in K?s. He absolutely has.

If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.

[HoopsDawg]

If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.

I hope Hatcher gets it going soon. But at this point, Cumbest has earned more AB's. So either Hancock to first and Cumbest to DH. Or Allen to first and Cumbest to RF.

[Really Clark?]

If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.

No it’s stupid to say he hasn’t had an increase in his K’s when it’s false. To go from a 17.3% K rate over his first 75 AB’s to a 30% K rate is a jump and a concerning one. 12.7% higher over his last 20 AB’s. To go further, which I know is meaningless to you, Saber metrics only needs 60 PA to decided a K rate is meaningful stat and not just an anomaly. So a full third of that number of his last AB’s gives us a definite rise within that subset of data. If someone is striking out 75% of the time over 20 AB’s and you think it’s only then they are in a slump? You are clueless

[Rex54]

No it’s stupid to say he hasn’t had an increase in his K’s when it’s false. To go from a 17.3% K rate over his first 75 AB’s to a 30% K rate is a jump and a concerning one. 12.7% higher over his last 20 AB’s. To go further, which I know is meaningless to you, Saber metrics only needs 60 PA to decided a K rate is meaningful stat and not just an anomaly. So a full third of that number of his last AB’s gives us a definite rise within that subset of data. If someone is striking out 75% of the time over 20 AB’s and you think it’s only then they are in a slump? You are clueless

I agree if he maintains a 30% K rate over the next 40 AB's then you are on to something. But until then you are a moron, as your own post indicates. You can't take 20 AB's and extrapolate anything let alone such a minute jump! Which was my point, it would take a 75+% rate in that small sample to be meaningful.

[Really Clark?]

I agree if he maintains a 30% K rate over the next 40 AB's then you are on to something. But until then you are a moron, as your own post indicates. You can't take 20 AB's and extrapolate anything let alone such a minute jump! Which was my point, it would take a 75+% rate in that small sample to be meaningful.

Uh...that is exactly what is done in baseball. Every single day. Heck in game decisions are made on what players have done in that one game much less over 20 AB’s. This is EXACTLY what baseball does. It is all about subset of data collection and applying that knowledge to every single pitch, AB, and game, splits, etc., etc. etc. You are the only one showing your ignorance. 20 AB’s absolutely gives you very important information.

A simple metric is using a couple points of his raw data for the season and that gives us an idea of how he is hitting. You take his average of .200 (.114 in SEC play), K rate for the year of 20% (23% in SEC play) and his walk rate of 7% (less than 3% in SEC play). Just with those few raw numbers we know his plate discipline has been absolutely horrible because those walk rates are at best below average and in SEC play anything below 4% is absolutely awful. That directly correlates to his contact or lack there of in his case since he is hitting only .200 (.114 in the SEC). The overall and SEC total K rate is actually the best of his stats of those 3, being considered average to below average. But with that increasing over the last 20 AB’s, and you see his average has plummeted .074 points since the LSU series. They work together to paint a picture of someone who is in a bad slump and his plate discipline is a huge factor with his K rate increase, decrease in walks (such as they were to begin with) and his average plummeting .074 points means that he is also having a lot of bad contact.

Again. I hope and pray that tonight gets him started because this type of slump is horrible to go through. But make no mistake he has been in a slump.

[Rex54]

Uh...that is exactly what is done in baseball. Every single day. Heck in game decisions are made on what players have done in that one game much less over 20 AB’s. This is EXACTLY what baseball does. It is all about subset of data collection and applying that knowledge to every single pitch, AB, and game, splits, etc., etc. etc. You are the only one showing your ignorance. 20 AB’s absolutely gives you very important information.

A simple metric is using a couple points of his raw data for the season and that gives us an idea of how he is hitting. You take his average of .200 (.114 in SEC play), K rate for the year of 20% (23% in SEC play) and his walk rate of 7% (less than 3% in SEC play). Just with those few raw numbers we know his plate discipline has been absolutely horrible because those walk rates are at best below average and in SEC play anything below 4% is absolutely awful. That directly correlates to his contact or lack there of in his case since he is hitting only .200 (.114 in the SEC). The overall and SEC total K rate is actually the best of his stats of those 3, being considered average to below average. But with that increasing over the last 20 AB’s, and you see his average has plummeted .074 points since the LSU series. They work together to paint a picture of someone who is in a bad slump and his plate discipline is a huge factor with his K rate increase, decrease in walks (such as they were to begin with) and his average plummeting .074 points means that he is also having a lot of bad contact.

Again. I hope and pray that tonight gets him started because this type of slump is horrible to go through. But make no mistake he has been in a slump.

Where in this gibberish do you mention "exit velocity" or "piss-rod outs". This is why blind numbers are retarded, watch the damn games. Watch the ball explode off his bat. Team leader in doubles and you all want to bench him for a football player. Unreal.

Since you are one of these statfreaks, surely you understand BABIP. Coming into tonight Hatcher's was .240 on the year. College BABIP runs higher than MLB and Hatcher being more of a line drive ground ball hitter instead of flying out would normally run higher than college average. So we see there the massive impact of bad luck so far seeing as the ball is flying off his bat.

Hatcher 2018 BABIP - .333
Hatcher 2019 BABIP - .402
Hatcher 2020 BABIP - .340
Hatcher 2021 BABIP - .240 (screams unlucky!)

But go one and tell me how 2 extra K's in 5 games is "meaningful". Fool.

[Todd4State]

Where in this gibberish do you mention "exit velocity" or "piss-rod outs". This is why blind numbers are retarded, watch the damn games. Watch the ball explode off his bat. Team leader in doubles and you all want to bench him for a football player. Unreal.

Since you are one of these statfreaks, surely you understand BABIP. Coming into tonight Hatcher's was .240 on the year. College BABIP runs higher than MLB and Hatcher being more of a line drive ground ball hitter instead of flying out would normally run higher than college average. So we see there the massive impact of bad luck so far seeing as the ball is flying off his bat.

Hatcher 2018 BABIP - .333
Hatcher 2019 BABIP - .402
Hatcher 2020 BABIP - .340
Hatcher 2021 BABIP - .240 (screams unlucky!)

But go one and tell me how 2 extra K's in 5 games is "meaningful". Fool.

Is this guy Will James?

[Really Clark?]

Is this guy Will James?

Good question

[Really Clark?]

Where in this gibberish do you mention "exit velocity" or "piss-rod outs". This is why blind numbers are retarded, watch the damn games. Watch the ball explode off his bat. Team leader in doubles and you all want to bench him for a football player. Unreal.

Since you are one of these statfreaks, surely you understand BABIP. Coming into tonight Hatcher's was .240 on the year. College BABIP runs higher than MLB and Hatcher being more of a line drive ground ball hitter instead of flying out would normally run higher than college average. So we see there the massive impact of bad luck so far seeing as the ball is flying off his bat.

Hatcher 2018 BABIP - .333
Hatcher 2019 BABIP - .402
Hatcher 2020 BABIP - .340
Hatcher 2021 BABIP - .240 (screams unlucky!)

But go one and tell me how 2 extra K's in 5 games is "meaningful". Fool.

Actually his lower BABIP this season is telling us what we see when we chart his hits. Weak contact with a ton of pull contact into the defense and shifts. That is a major point of a decreasing BABIP in a hitter. But to be fair, with BABIP stat, that stat needs to be taken over about 800 balls in play to see a players average. So you also have to consider that his 2019 BABIP was well above what it should have been. What you look at during a single season is how big is a players BABIP difference from his average and what his chart is telling you. Is it a lot more points higher or lower? Is this season a natural adjustment from a season that was anomaly high or vice versa. Then we can start drawing a conclusion that they may have been lucky or unlucky possibly.

When trying to determine if there will be a regression or upward swing you do have to take care that it may not happen during a college or HS season as they just don?t get the enormous plate appearances that you do over 162 games in the majors. Also, that stat is slightly more meaningful for a pitcher vs hitter as the hitter has more control over the outcome vs a pitcher. So the fact his BABIP is so low and coincides with his low AVG. (it?s 3-4 hits difference between the 2), then compare his OPS to that (lowest by far of anyone with at least 50 AB?s on the team, including Debrule, not even .600)...whatever lack of luck you think he is having, it?s minuscule at best. Let?s be generous and say it?s 4-6 hits this season. But that?s over the whole season. Still does not change he has had an increase in K?s which is has impacted his BABIP as well. More strikeouts, higher the BABIP. That is completely on the hitter

He struck out 4 times just this weekend...it was a terrible series overall for him. And he would tell you the same thing.