Keep an eye on next Thursday

[DownwardDawg]

Latest model trends are continuing to show a potentially significant severe weather event Thursday. Raw model numbers are actually looking worse than this past Wednesday, although that in no way means a higher end event is expected. Even this close it's still too far out to tell. By tomorrow evening the HRRR will start weighing in on the matter and then we can start trying to nail down the finer details. Target area has been fluctuating some with the models but right now I'm saying between Hattiesburg and Cleveland you need to be paying particular attention. Models the last few runs seem to be trending towards a SW to NE corridor from Vicksburg to Columbus as being the favored area.

Thanks man. I appreciate the update!!! We all do!

[RocketDawg]

Stay out of North Mississippi and TUSK land Thrus. Rocket this includes you.

Yes, I agree wholeheartedly.

[parabrave]

Yes, I agree wholeheartedly.

GFS 18Z Thrus


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...frzn_us_13.png

[RocketDawg]

GFS 18Z Thrus


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...frzn_us_13.png

Whoops ....

[starkvegasdawg]

Morning model runs are starting to come in and things aren't looking any better. Things are shaping up for another possible tornado outbreak Thursday. There's still a couple possible kill switches for it, but those are looking less likely the closer we get. No real change in my thinking as far as location goes. If anything, maybe a slight expansion back to the northwest to cover more of the delta.

[parabrave]

Here is your map. We are about to get the yearly flooding event here on the coast.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExK04aQW...name=4096x4096

[ScoobaDawg]

Almost the whole state of MS and half of bama in ENH already... won't be surprised if another High risk area is issued by thursday.
Don't like the numbers I'm seeing for parts of the state...

[ScoobaDawg]

may not have been any major tornadoes last week (4 ef2's) but a total of 46 across the area over 2 days,

[starkvegasdawg]

Almost the whole state of MS and half of bama in ENH already... won't be surprised if another High risk area is issued by thursday.
Don't like the numbers I'm seeing for parts of the state...

I fully expect a mod risk. I'm iffy if they go high again even though the numbers look better than last week.

[parabrave]

may not have been any major tornadoes last week (4 ef2's) but a total of 46 across the area over 2 days,

Scooba where is this map found, Also what is the site where you can find the tornadoes paths/tracks?

[starkvegasdawg]

The hi-res HRRR is coming in now showing the beginning of the Thursday event. Main threat area now looks to be anywhere north of I -20 and east of I-55. Now don't let your guard down if you're not in that area, but that looks to be ground zero as of right now. This could easily turn into a backyard storm chase for me.

[Churchill]

I think the most profound quote I've read this spring was a attributed a meteorologist (I forgot his name) when he said (paraphrasing) " I don't care what the forecast says, when a tornado is coming up YOUR street, it's your April 27, 2011 ". So when there's any chance tornadoes...I've got my antenna up !

[starkvegasdawg]

I think the most profound quote I've read this spring was a attributed a meteorologist (I forgot his name) when he said (paraphrasing) " I don't care what the forecast says, when a tornado is coming up YOUR street, it's your April 27, 2011 ". So when there's any chance tornadoes...I've got my antenna up !

I know James Spann says that a lot.

[starkvegasdawg]

Evening model runs continue to depict a probable high end tornado event Thursday afternoon. Parameters are better for this one than the high risk we had last week. Models are coming into good agreement of a more northern track of the low pressure center which will pull the threat a little further north and encompass most of central and northern MS...especially areas east of I-55. Model guidance is showing storms going severe late morning to early afternoon with discrete supercells being the primary storm mode. Any that do develop with have a good chance of going tornadic and at least some violent and long tracked ones are possible. I know I said the same thing last week and MS dodged a bullet, but the set up for this system is different. An extremely strong low level jet looks to be in place for the duration of the event and that will help the storms quickly go severe and rotate. One possible saving grace is that we may end up with too many storms forming and they end up choking each other down. That is due to there being very little convective inhibition, or cap, forecast and storms will be firing at will.

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC has upgraded north and central MS to a moderate risk. This includes a 15% hatched threat for significant tornadoes. They are still mentioning storm mode will be discrete supercells.

[ScoobaDawg]

Not liking this setup at all... Really hope everyone doesn't take it lightly after last weeks system not performing in ms.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not liking this setup at all... Really hope everyone doesn't take it lightly after last weeks system not performing in ms.

I agree on hoping people aren't complacent. This is a completely different scenario than last week. While this one could bust it's not as likely. And something that hasn't been mentioned...these storms will be traveling 50-60mph. So if you go under a warning don't go outside trying to see the tornado. They will be on you before you know it - especially if you're depending on your radar app on your phone. Average radar lag time is 5 minutes so at these speeds the storms can be ahead of radar images by 4-6 miles.

[RocketDawg]

Vegas and Scooba - do you guys stay up all night?

[starkvegasdawg]

Vegas and Scooba - do you guys stay up all night?

You mean you sleep?

I wake up during the night, especially when there's a big update coming I want to see. You'd be surprised how many chasers stay up for the overnight update when a big storm is coming.

[Commercecomet24]

Thank y'all so much for the info! Appreciate all your hard work and you make it easy to understand for those of us who aren't meteorologists.