Mythbusting: The Ease of Postseason Advancement in Baseball vs Basketball

[engie]

After the discussion today, I decided to bring the data. This data is exclusive to the Super-Regional Era(1999-current) of 16 years. I did the CWS/Elite 8 since that data is easier to find and requires less spreadsheet work for me.

Baseball:
46 different teams making a total of 128 trips -- incl 12 midmajors making a total of 25 of appearances.

Basketball:
51 different teams making a total of 128 trips -- incl 14 midmajors making a total of 19 appearances.

51/349 = 14.6% of college basketball teams making the elite 8 in the past 16 years.
46/302 = 15.2% of college baseball teams making the CWS in the past 16 years.

14/275 = 5.1% of midmajors making the elite 8 in the past 16 years.
12/252 = 4.8% of midmajors making the CWS in the past 16 years.

16 basketball teams made 3 or more appearances for a total of 80. That's 62.5% of total appearances for the best 16 teams. One midmajor in this group(Memphis).
The top 16 baseball teams made a total of 82 appearances. That's 64% of total appearances for the best 16 teams. Two midmajors in this group(Rice, Cal State Fullerton).

Dang. Near. Identical.

Do I need to break this down any further for anyone? Or can we agree that given national data over an extended period of time, the difficulty in the actual accomplishments are roughly identical -- with MSU being much closer to the elite category in baseball and thus skewing the apparent "ease" of the accomplishment in those looking at it from maroon glasses?

[msstate7]

That's some good data, engie. Do you work as hard at your job as your researching for message boards? Haha

[CadaverDawg]

That's some good data, engie. Do you work as hard at your job as your researching for message boards? Haha

Doubtful

[Dawg61]

The argument is it is more difficult for an SEC program to make the NCAA tournament in basketball than in baseball. How many Big East and Big Ten basketball teams that made the sweet 16 has zero to do with the argument. You're piggybacking the success of the Big East/B1G/ACC in the NCAA tournament to say it's just as difficult in baseball as it is in basketball to make a sweet 16. That's not the argument. If you're ranked #5-14 in the SEC in basketball for the year you have almost no chance of getting into the tournament as of right now. That could change down the line but it won't be anytime soon. Because it is more difficult for MSU basketball to even get into the tournament than it is for MSU baseball it therefore is more difficult for MSU basketball to make a Sweet16 in basketball than in baseball. Until the SEC is equal in strength for both basketball and baseball this will continue to be the case for MSU relative to these two sports. The SEC will pull us down in basketball currently where in baseball we get raised up. Thanks for the data though.

[Political Hack]

it's hard to call the baeball mid majors "mid majors" considering 14 of them made 29 appearances. Sounds like a lot of repeat appearances, which means they're more of a power program than an upset special. Cal St Fullerton a mid major?

[Pioneer Dawg]

I think if a middle of the road school decided to make a push in one specific sport they would have success easier and quicker in basketball. It's obviously a deep process to build a baseball program to the level needed to win a regional. Basketball takes one or two players.

[Political Hack]

I think if a middle of the road school decided to make a push in one specific sport they would have success easier and quicker in basketball. It's obviously a deep process to build a baseball program to the level needed to win a regional. Basketball takes one or two players.

another reason granting someone a 4 year window to turn around a basketball program is stupid.

[engie]

it's hard to call the baeball mid majors "mid majors" considering 14 of them made 29 appearances. Sounds like a lot of repeat appearances, which means they're more of a power program than an upset special. Cal St Fullerton a mid major?

There are 2 elite "midmajors" in college baseball that account for 13 of those 29 appearances...
7 - Cal St Fullerton
6 - Rice

So, 10 other teams made 16 total appearances in Omaha.
By the same logic, the 4 formerly elite "midmajors" in college basketball make up 9 of the 19 overall trips.

[Political Hack]

who are the four mid majors in basketball?

[TexasDawg]

Who gives a shit about how easy or hard it is to advance in the basketball tournament, seeing as how we won't be in it for a while.

[sleepy dawg]

nice points...

however, you could also argue that if you already had a somewhat decent base in baseball (as a middle of the road school would certainly have), ... add a couple of really awesome pitchers then some quality coaching should be able to turn around a team pretty quickly. It would automatically make you a threat in a regional if you made it.

In either case, I think if your inherited team is a train wreck when you come in, it's going to take more than 2 years, and I think 4 years is reasonable for either sport, in this case, for a noticeable turnaround.

[engie]

who are the four mid majors in basketball?

Memphis, Butler, Xavier, Temple... in the theme of "Elite 8's". If you go to Sweet 16s as your data, you add Gonzaga and drop Temple.

Updated Elite 8 spreadsheet(99-current):
8 Michigan St
7 Connecticut
7 Florida
7 Kansas
7 Kentucky
7 North Carolina
5 Arizona
5 Duke
5 Louisville
4 Ohio St
3 Memphis
3 Oklahoma
3 Syracuse
3 Texas
3 UCLA
3 Wisconsin
2 Baylor
2 Butler
2 Illinois
2 Marquette
2 Maryland
2 Michigan
2 Missouri
2 Oklahoma St
2 Oregon
2 Temple
2 Villanova
2 West Virginia
2 Xavier
1 Alabama
1 Davidson
1 Dayton
1 George Mason
1 Georgetown
1 Georgia Tech
1 Gonzaga
1 Indiana
1 Iowa St
1 Kansas St
1 Kent St
1 LSU
1 Pittsburgh
1 Purdue
1 St Joseph's
1 St. John's
1 Stanford
1 Tennessee
1 Tulsa
1 USC
1 VCU
1 Wichita St

NONupdated Sweet 16 list(missing last 2 years -- and possibly going back to 98 since I originally set these up around the Stans tenure):
11 Duke
6 North Carolina
4 Maryland
1 Boston College
1 Florida St
1 Georgia Tech
1 Miami-FL
1 North Carolina St
1 Wake Forest
8 Michigan St
5 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
4 Ohio St
4 Purdue
1 Indiana
1 Iowa
1 Penn St
8 Kansas
5 Texas
4 Oklahoma
3 Oklahoma St
2 Missouri
1 Baylor
1 Iowa St
1 Kansas St
1 Texas A&M
1 Texas Tech
7 Connecticut
5 Pittsburgh
5 Syracuse
4 West Virginia
3 Georgetown
3 Louisville
2 Marquette
1 Cincinnati
1 Notre Dame
1 Seton Hall
1 St. John's
4 Villanova
6 Arizona
6 UCLA
3 Washington
2 Oregon
2 Stanford
2 USC
1 Washington St
7 Kentucky
5 Florida
4 Tennessee
2 Auburn
2 LSU
2 Vanderbilt
1 Alabama
1 Ole Miss
5 Gonzaga
4 Butler
4 Memphis
4 Xavier
2 Southern Illinois
2 Temple
1 Bradley
1 Brigham Young
1 Cornell
1 Davidson
1 George Mason
1 Kent St
1 Miami-OH
1 Nevada
1 Northern Iowa
1 Richmond
1 San Diego St
1 St Joseph's
1 St Mary's
1 SW Missouri St
1 Tulsa
1 UAB
1 UNLV
1 Utah
1 UW-Milwaukee
1 VCU
1 Western Ky
1 Wichita St

[Political Hack]

that equitable for the most part although I'd argue Rice & CSF are more prestigious than those basketball mid majors. Either way, it's not far off though.

[engie]

that equitable for the most part although I'd argue Rice & CSF are more prestigious than those basketball mid majors. Either way, it's not far off though.

I would agree...

I think looking back that elite basketball programs have been valuable enough fiscally to earn their way into major conferences along the way, while that is still not true for baseball. So, if you go back to the various expansions, you see alot of elite "midmajors" in basketball getting gobbled up. Heck, you saw an entire conference founded around basketball with the Big East in the 79...

[JOHNHEVESYMADE]

I think we should be more worried about if Rick Ray is going to win a game in February. Not about how hard it is to make the tournament.

[Johnson85]

Do I need to break this down any further for anyone? Or can we agree that given national data over an extended period of time, the difficulty in the actual accomplishments are roughly identical -- with MSU being much closer to the elite category in baseball and thus skewing the apparent "ease" of the accomplishment in those looking at it from maroon glasses?

They're not identical when you look at conference specific. Teams with good weather have an advantage in baseball. Schools in areas with strong basketball traditions have an advantage in basketball. That's not a reason to downplay what we're accomplishing in baseball, it's just recognizing that we are taking advantage in the sport where we have some advantages. It's not a coincidence that State and UM are good in baseball consistently, whereas we haven't been in basketball.

[drunkernhelldawg]

another reason granting someone a 4 year window to turn around a basketball program is stupid.

If that were the only factor, which it is not. We basically burned the whole thing down and told him to make something out of the ashes. Last person I blame for this situation is somebody who wasn't even there when the fire was set.

[Dawg61]

If that were the only factor, which it is not. We basically burned the whole thing down and told him to make something out of the ashes. Last person I blame for this situation is somebody who wasn't even there when the fire was set.

Yea Brick Ray has nothing to do with our shit basketball program. Let's pay him another million.**

[engie]

Of course it's "easier" for State and OM to get it done in baseball because we've INVESTED more heavily and care alot more than practically everyone else in the country. We've got inherent disadvantages in baseball too that aren't present in football and basketball -- with unfair scholarship situations, etc as well.

Baseball SEEMS easier because we're closer to elite in that sport, with tradition on our side. That's the point I was making before. The difficulty is ACTUALLY basically the same. We're just closer to elite in baseball, making the task seem easier...

[HailState39110]

The SEC typically has 8 or 9 teams make the tournament in baseball . The SEC typically has 3 or 4 teams make the tournament in basketball . That's what makes it a
tougher accomplishment is getting an invitation to compete for a natl title