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  1. #1
    Senior Member Hambone's Avatar
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    Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

    There is a good chance for us to get 5.

    I will not be super shocked if we don’t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)

  2. #2
    Bennie Brown Know-It-All
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hambone View Post
    Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

    There is a good chance for us to get 5.

    I will not be super shocked if we don’t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)
    The egg bowl is a tossup and so is kentucky. We can win those 5 and honestly should but the % on the egg bowl ain’t that.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hambone View Post
    Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

    There is a good chance for us to get 5.

    I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)
    Not sure about the % but that is our path to 5 or 6 if we are lucky.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hambone View Post
    Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

    There is a good chance for us to get 5.

    I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)
    Just a quick refresher for anyone who's interested on undergrad probability.

    The chance for us to go 5-0 in that stretch would be 0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*0.65=32.85%.

    So, it's more likely that we don't go 5-0 in that stretch than we do. I think calling it a "good chance" is a bit of a stretch.

    However, the probability of us winning at least 4 games in that stretch with the possibility of a loss to Kentucky would be 32.85%+0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*(1-0.65)=32.85%+17.69%=50.54% (a coin flip)
    Last edited by bostondawg; 09-06-2020 at 02:54 PM.

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