Bartoo says bet K State

[PMDawg]

tough place to play--wow. We play LSU-Auburn-Bama-etc. just how tough can it be? I'll bet on this game. I'll bet our defense clamps down on the Wildcat's nuts. I'll bet Fitz has a great game. K-State doesn't even hav e 4 star playing. Jimmys and Joes is what it is about. Jo-Mo will have us ready.

It's not tough in the same way. It's tough as in it's in the middle of nowhere, it's an 11:00 game, it's not an exciting matchup, and they are well coached.

[hacker]

I get that instinct, but it's simply not true.

Vegas had Texas Tech -2 vs Ole Miss & everyone thought Ole Miss was much better. You know what? Everyone was right.

I think Vegas gets too much credit.

Lines move based on where the money is going. If "everyone" thought Ole Miss was so much better, then the line would've indicated that.

Besides, you can't take the results of one game and extrapolate anything meaningful from it. In general, Vegas makes a lot of money, so they're right more often than not.

[FriarsPoint]

This is the best defense they will see all year. Period. They are going to get skull ******.

[BulldogBear]

Actually he's right quite often. He was 5-2 against spread last week. Lost big on UWV/Tenn game. If you go with recruiting rankings as your primary way to pick games, you probably gonna be right a good bit of the time.

The problem is I don't think his system accounts for development or flops. If you start as a ** you stay a ** even if you win the Heisman.

[Ari Gold]

It’s a road game at a very unfamiliar place to everyone on the roster.
They will be well coached always are under Synder
I fully expect to win the game by 2tds plus but wouldn’t be shocked and ready to go panic mode if we don’t cover the spread and I don’t give a **** if we win by 31 or by 1 .

[dawgday166]

The problem is I don't think his system accounts for development or flops. If you start as a ** you stay a ** even if you win the Heisman.

Very true and that's where I diverge from him. I believe Fitz, all the Oline, Sweat, Abrams, Cole, Rivers were all 3*. Sweat, Abrams, Cole, Rivers weren't 3* when they came out of Juco IMO. Then Fitz and Oline have exceeded their 3* rankings too. Fitz is at least 4* now and has potential that's off the charts if he improves touch and downfield accuracy. 3 or so Olinemen are like that too.

Bartoo goes solely on recruiting rankings in this respect.

[Cooterpoot]

K State is going to stack the box and force Nick to throw. Last year that was a good game plan but this year with Mitchell, Guidry and Austin Williams it might not be the smartest move.

It was a good plan because of Mullen's offensive philosophy.

[msstate7]

It’s a road game at a very unfamiliar place to everyone on the roster.
They will be well coached always are under Synder
I fully expect to win the game by 2tds plus but wouldn’t be shocked and ready to go panic mode if we don’t cover the spread and I don’t give a **** if we win by 31 or by 1 .

I'm the same way. I wanna win... any win is acceptable, and a loss is unacceptable

[PMDawg]

It’s a road game at a very unfamiliar place to everyone on the roster.
They will be well coached always are under Synder
I fully expect to win the game by 2tds plus but wouldn’t be shocked and ready to go panic mode if we don’t cover the spread and I don’t give a **** if we win by 31 or by 1 .

THIS

[ShotgunDawg]

Bill Connolly has us winning 35-10

https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...s-odds-spreads

[smootness]

I get that instinct, but it's simply not true.

Vegas had Texas Tech -2 vs Ole Miss & everyone thought Ole Miss was much better. You know what? Everyone was right.

I think Vegas gets too much credit.

Vegas does not set lines based on what they think will happen, but based on what will get the most money flowing on both sides.

This has always been true. I don't know why people evaluate it as though Vegas is actually making a prediction. They don't care about what actually happens in the game, they care about how to get the most money bet as evenly as possible.

[gravedigger]

I get that instinct, but it's simply not true.

Vegas had Texas Tech -2 vs Ole Miss & everyone thought Ole Miss was much better. You know what? Everyone was right.

I think Vegas gets too much credit.

Vegas wasnt saying TT is 2 points better than OM. They were saying that the gamblers would even the bets at TT minus 2.

Two ENTIRELY different things.

[TrapGame]

It was a good plan because of Mullen's offensive philosophy.

But chicks dig the long ball.**

[ShotgunDawg]

Vegas wasnt saying TT is 2 points better than OM. They were saying that the gamblers would even the bets at TT minus 2.

Two ENTIRELY different things.

Agree. That's my point. Don't fear the Vegas lines.

[Commercecomet24]

Vegas does not set lines based on what they think will happen, but based on what will get the most money flowing on both sides.

This has always been true. I don't know why people evaluate it as though Vegas is actually making a prediction. They don't care about what actually happens in the game, they care about how to get the most money bet as evenly as possible.

Exactly! They could give a rats behind who wins, as long as they make money.

[Commercecomet24]

K State is going to stack the box and force Nick to throw. Last year that was a good game plan but this year with Mitchell, Guidry and Austin Williams it might not be the smartest move.

Agreed. Don't forget the TE's and RB's as well.. All did great work in the passing game last week.

[smootness]

Exactly! They could give a rats behind who wins, as long as they make money.

I don't think I ever apologized for doubting you on JT Ginn. So I'm sorry, I was wrong. I didn't think there was any way he actually showed up and thought you were just buying in because you knew him. Sorry, man, and boy am I glad to be wrong!

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

KState is a tough place to play (historically) and Snider is a great coach (historically), but there is only one year this decade where KState started the year looking terrible yet turned itt around quick. google the schedules: '10, '12, and '14-'17 they blew out the G5 an FCS teams they played in the first 2-3 weeks. in '13 they lost to SDSU and started the year 2-4 with 0 P5 wins. you have to go back to '11 to find a year where they struggled out the gate yet turned out ok.

That's 5/7 years -including the last 4- where KState was WAY better to start the year than we saw last week, 1/7 where they started bad and stayed bad, and 1/7 where they looked bad but were actually good. It would appear as though this is a worse KState team than we're used too. Just my 2c based on history

[Commercecomet24]

I don't think I ever apologized for doubting you on JT Ginn. So I'm sorry, I was wrong. I didn't think there was any way he actually showed up and thought you were just buying in because you knew him. Sorry, man, and boy am I glad to be wrong!

I appreciate that but there's no reason to apologize, I completely understand why folks were skeptical. I would've probably felt the same way if I didn't have the type of relationship I have with them. It's all good!

[Commercecomet24]

I don't think I ever apologized for doubting you on JT Ginn. So I'm sorry, I was wrong. I didn't think there was any way he actually showed up and thought you were just buying in because you knew him. Sorry, man, and boy am I glad to be wrong!

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to smootness again.