Predicting our NCAA fate, based on recent history

[Quaoarsking]

This chart shows 12-, 13-, 14-, and 15-win SEC teams this decade (the 4 possibilities of our final record).

Also shown is the performance in Hoover, their selection day RPI (not necessarily what shows up on WarrenNolan as the final RPI, since that site keeps calculating with NCAA results), and whether or not they made the tournament.

[Quaoarsking]

Some observations:

• It doesn't look like the Committee cares what happens in Hoover. I don't think we can rely on "playing our way in" or anything like that.
• If we finish 12-18, we're probably SOL. However, that's only happened twice this decade, both to teams with much worse RPIs than us, so I can't say that we're certainly out if Florida sweeps us, but we probably are.
• 13-17 teams are usually out too, with the RPI in the low 30s being right on the bubble - it wasn't enough for South Carolina last year, but was enough for A&M in 2013. If we take 1/3 from Florida we're going to be sweating it on Selection Day. Note that LSU getting left out in 2011 was one of the major catalysts for expanding the SEC Tournament field, since not making an 8-team Hoover field was the main reason they were left out.
• We should be pretty safe if we take 2/3 from Florida to get to 14-16. Ole Miss getting left out last year at 14-16 and a 35 RPI was a big abberation.
• Gary Henderson's last 2 Kentucky teams had records that should have been good enough, but both teams' RPIs were surprisingly bad. Same for 2 of the last 3 Missouri teams.

The main takeway is that just taking 1/3 from Florida may not be enough, especially since we probably can't play our way in by winning in Hoover. (Unless we win the whole thing, of course.) We need to win 2/3.

[5049]

Some observations:

• It doesn't look like the Committee cares what happens in Hoover. I don't think we can rely on "playing our way in" or anything like that.
• If we finish 12-18, we're probably SOL. However, that's only happened twice this decade, both to teams with much worse RPIs than us, so I can't say that we're certainly out if Florida sweeps us, but we probably are.
• 13-17 teams are usually out too, with the RPI in the low 30s being right on the bubble - it wasn't enough for South Carolina last year, but was enough for A&M in 2013. If we take 1/3 from Florida we're going to be sweating it on Selection Day. Note that LSU getting left out in 2011 was one of the major catalysts for expanding the SEC Tournament field, since not making an 8-team Hoover field was the main reason they were left out.
• We should be pretty safe if we take 2/3 from Florida to get to 14-16. Ole Miss getting left out last year at 14-16 and a 35 RPI was a big abberation.
• Gary Henderson's last 2 Kentucky teams had records that should have been good enough, but both teams' RPIs were surprisingly bad. Same for 2 of the last 3 Missouri teams.

The main takeway is that just taking 1/3 from Florida may not be enough, especially since we probably can't play our way in by winning in Hoover. (Unless we win the whole thing, of course.) We need to win 2/3.

We will be rewarded for going on the road, and for big wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss. And hopefully Flarrda

[msstate7]

I think we need 2 this weekend. Great research, Q... always

[Tbonewannabe]

Winning the UF series would have us win 3 series from top 5 teams. That is an insane stat.

[basedog]

Just off subject, I didn't get to watch our game today but I did get to hear the IB with Jim on the radio off and on.

He is so good and explains every situation to the tee.

He raved about the future and the freshmen.

[maroonmania]

I think we need 2 this weekend. Great research, Q... always

If we actually have to win the series against FL then we are done. FL hasn't lost a series all year. I can't see them starting with us unless they just don't care anymore because the regular season is clinched.

[msstate7]

If we actually have to win the series against FL then we are done. FL hasn't lost a series all year. I can't see them starting with us unless they just don't care anymore because the regular season is clinched.

O'Sullivan will have them ready. He hates Cohen, and will enjoy a shot to bury us. We will have to have a lot of luck

[Quaoarsking]

If we actually have to win the series against FL then we are done. FL hasn't lost a series all year. I can't see them starting with us unless they just don't care anymore because the regular season is clinched.

Baseball's a funny sport that regularly has weird and surprising results. Who would've thought we'd go 3-0 against Arkansas or 3-1 against Ole Miss?

I think it's less than 50-50 that we take 2/3 from Florida, but I won't be shocked like I would at an equivalent upset in football.

[Todd4State]

I wonder what Ole Miss's SOS was last year when they got left out? They play the RPI game well last year but while their RPI is 8 as I type this- their non-conference SOS is 191 and their SOS is 27.

We don't talk about SOS a lot but it is a factor with the committee.

Our SOS is 14 and our non-conference SOS is 142 (Probably because of all the SWAC teams we played)

I don't know if the committee will give us some leniency with our stadium situation and the Cann situation. You can say that we did the stadium situation to ourselves- but we could have chosen to play a bunch of games in Pearl, Biloxi, or even Smith-Wills and we didn't. We went on the road. I think they will take it into consideration but how much is the question.

[Cooterpoot]

Not happening.

[Thrill1]

Great stuff Q. Thanks for that. I wouldn?t necessarily say the committee doesn?t care what teams do in Hoover, its who you do it against. SECT games certainly count towards RPI so if we could somehow manage 1 vs UF, we could still get a bid with at least a win in Hoover - just depends who the opponent is.

[Todd4State]

Great stuff Q. Thanks for that. I wouldn?t necessarily say the committee doesn?t care what teams do in Hoover, its who you do it against. SECT games certainly count towards RPI so if we could somehow manage 1 vs UF, we could still get a bid with at least a win in Hoover - just depends who the opponent is.

I think the main thing the committee is looking at is what happens when a darkhorse wins the automatic bid like we did in 2005 or whether a team like us has a record above .500 or not.

[biggun]

Last year, Ole Miss lost 7 of their last 10 games, including a home loss to RPI#180 Arkansas State and then went 1 and done in Hoover with a loss to Auburn. The poor finish combined with their SEC record and an 0-1 SEC Tourney is what prob caused the committee to ignore their RPI and leave them at home

[The Federalist Engineer]

Assuming we make SECT, do we start Small in game-1 if that game is for our survival?

As a low seed SECT team, I wonder if will play Florida as a reward for beating Vandy on game-1.

This gives us potentially 4 cracks at National Seed opponents in the next 5 games.

I hope we get the Norwalk Regional against Uconn, Yale, and Northeastern. We could beat those Yankees and actually make a damn super regional.

[Bulldog1]

So what I see from this chart is that we probably need to be 14-16 in conference with a top 30 RPI. But it's going to be tough to take the series from Florida.

[MetEdDawg]

Our wins against Top 50 RPI have to be an outlier here. I would like to see how many wins against Top 50 RPI teams those ball clubs mentioned in the OP had. We have 12 and Houston is sitting right there on the edge at 53.

I've got to guess that most of those teams didn't have that many Top 50 RPI wins. Plus anything we get this weekend against UF would be in that group. And I think we will end up with a Top 10 SOS. So we didn't lay up on scheduling. All of that probably counts for something in my mind.

[sleepy dawg]

It won't let me give you anymore rep, but great job putting this together. I've been plowing through numbers for several days now trying to figure out exactly what it takes.

How did you find the "Selection Day RPI"? I noticed WN didn't kept updating 2 years ago, so last year I started writing it down at selection time so I'm missing prior years.