Guessing OM Scholarships and Bowl Ban (Using NCAA Penalty Matrix)

[GreenheadDawg]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

You and saltydog have got to be the same person. No way there are 2 people this pessimistic about EVERYTHING

ETA: I actually agree with you though. No chance of 60 scholarships. 40 is max

[preachermatt83]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

Yup

[blacklistedbully]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

Don't think most are "waiting on 60". I think we're trying to interpret what the penalty matrix calls for. By the letter-of-the-rule, many of us think it is 60 or more.

If they get at least 30, I'll be fairly happy with what that should do to their program, though a little disappointed if it is not at least 35. I do think it should be more than 35, I'm just stating where I'll be if it's not.

[TUSK]

Yup

<0% chance of 60.

[gravedigger]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

Ok. Then let's put it your lap. You tell your subordinates this is the penalty for doing x and they exceed it as has been shown. How do you explain why you backed off to subordinates that didn't get caught breaking the rules.

"Come on, you all know That was just hyperbole."?

EVERYONE will expect, and rightly so, a mitigation of penalties to the EXACT OR MORESO because they didn't do what the other subordinate did.

Yea, this calls for a judicious penalty, but the ruling body may not be able to live with the consequences of that any more than the hammer they have to swing.

This is a perfect storm with the perfect oak tree in the way.

May not happen the way I want it to, but either way my team wins.

[Dawgology]

Ok. Then let's put it your lap. You tell your subordinates this is the penalty for doing x and they exceed it as has been shown. How do you explain why you backed off to subordinates that didn't get caught breaking the rules.

"Come on, you all know That was just hyperbole."?

EVERYONE will expect, and rightly so, a mitigation of penalties to the EXACT OR MORESO because they didn't do what the other subordinate did.

Yea, this calls for a judicious penalty, but the ruling body may not be able to live with the consequences of that any more than the hammer they have to swing.

This is a perfect storm with the perfect oak tree in the way.

May not happen the way I want it to, but either way my team wins.

Exactly. If you are the NCAA you have to make a decision between following the rules you created here and sending a clear message or backing off and getting to do this many many more times because smaller schools will see that it's worth it.

[QuadrupleOption]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

[preachermatt83]

<0% chance of 60.

Yup

[DownwardDawg]

Yup

30 scollys lost is gonna take years to recover from. Bottom dwellers for 10 years or more.

[WSOPdawg]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

Thank you, Quad. Many many many still feel as if TCUN is going to be slapped across the wrist and that will be it allowing "network business" to continue on as normal. That time is quickly coming to an end with TCUN being obliterated: 40+ lost scholarships, 3 to 4 year bowl ban, 5 years probation, show causes across the board. TCUN may very well be wishing they got the DP due to a quicker recovery being allowed.

[gravedigger]

Yup

We'll answer my question then. 60 is within the matrix, but not following it leads to more pain for the NCAA.

Why won't they? History? Or are you saying the dp is too hard too?

[Really Clark?]

We'll answer my question then. 60 is within the matrix, but not following it leads to more pain for the NCAA.

Why won't they? History? Or are you saying the dp is too hard too?

Historically SMU lost 55 with the DP. Even with the matrix I don't think they go that high with just probation. Even if it is significant. The matrix does allow them to inact penalties that are stronger because of written guidelines for them to use but they do still have some discretion. But they have to explain why they deviate from the Matrix

[gravedigger]

Historically SMU lost 55 with the DP. Even with the matrix I don't think they go that high with just probation. Even if it is significant. The matrix does allow them to inact penalties that are stronger because of written guidelines for them to use but they do still have some discretion. But they have to explain why they deviate from the Matrix

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

[Really Clark?]

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

I understand that issue with the guidelines. My biggest point with the matrix guidelines use is how many keep trying to add all of the infractions for individuals with the part of the matrix that deals with the institution penalties. That is not what it was ever intended to do. What those infractions will do is help set the severity of the LOIC and academic fraud portion of the case. With so many different individuals involved you have to assume the LOIC is at least standard and usually aggravated Level 1. That in itself carries substantial penalties. The Fraud will tack on additional penalties to the school. What I want to see is if the HC responsibility charge is significant enough that the COI believes it warrant max or near max penalties of the LOIC to the school because the AD, compliance, and/or administration should have, at least after violations were found while an open investigation was under way, been more diligent with oversight of the program and its head coach. But by and large the infractions committed by the individuals themselves don't cause the school penalties it's what they do and how severe that moves the Failure to Monitor charge to a LOIC and moves the needle from mitigated to standard to aggravated. It is definitely the case for this generation and they are in uncharted territory.

[Reason2succeed]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

Plus what do you tell the next program that gets 30 scholarships following the matrix when they've done much les than OM? That is the situation the matrix was meant to address.

I think many of you greatly over estimate the NCAA's concerns about the OM football program.

[BulldogBear]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

Exactly.

It's easier I think to give the DP (as far as other member instutions swallowing this) than bowl bans lasting more than 4 years and three figure Scholly losses. I think they've been setting up for this.

My personal prediction is the DP is already as good as done. The only question now is whether it will be for 1 season or 2 and what additional restrictions my be applied post mortem.

[phatdog]

The death penalty affects the entire conference negatively. I say no schollys for 2 years and show cause for all named coaches.

[Dawgology]

The death penalty affects the entire conference negatively. I say no schollys for 2 years and show cause for all named coaches.

How does a DP impact the conference MORE than giving a program 35+ scholly loss and multiple year bowlban?? Both will actually impact Ole Miss (and the conference via bowl revenue loss) pretty much the same.

You all are giving Ole Miss WAAAAAAAAY too much credit. They have pissed the NCAA and SEC off (as well as its member institutions). They are 39'ed.

[1bigdawg]

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

UNC happened before the matrix. UNM happened before and after the matrix and after the investigation had begun.