Guessing OM Scholarships and Bowl Ban (Using NCAA Penalty Matrix)

[WSOPdawg]

The good thing is that after the NCAA drops the hammer, we'll all know how the penalty matrix is to be applied going forward. I think this is what EVERY other school is wanting to see as well.

[RocketDawg]

I haven't read the NCAA information (to a great extent anyway) nor have I sifted through the various postings on this thread, but what I'd like to know ... are the penalties additive? In other words, is having 5 Level I violations 5 times as bad as having a single Level 1? Surely the NCAA left themselves some wiggle room in handing out penalties for even unprecedented cheating. Could be that the wiggle room results in the death penalty for such egregious violations.

[Johnson85]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

They won't be scrapping it. The important part of the matrix is that schools get hammered even for one level I. Since it's fairly easy to cheat without the NCAA really getting proof of it, not hammering people for a small infraction means the risk reward analysis leads to cheating.

The flip side is that it sets up the incentive structure of, if you're going to cheat, cheat big, because there's not much room to increase punishment after one major infraction. But realistically, is anybody really cheating as a one off incident? I think for every school but Ole Miss, they'll look at the matrix and not want to push the envelope and the cheating will sort of be held at the status quo, or maybe even rolled back ever so slightly.

[Dawgowar]

The good thing is that after the NCAA drops the hammer, we'll all know how the penalty matrix is to be applied going forward. I think this is what EVERY other school is wanting to see as well.

UNC and Louisville approve of your post. They really want to know.

[Really Clark?]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

The impermissible benefits, recruiting violations, etc. fall under the individual(s). Those penalties will fall under what you punish individuals for in the matrix. Show Causes, Suspensions, recruiting visits, etc. It is the number and/or severity of those charges against the individuals that have brought the LOIC charge. The ACT Fraud and LOIC will be the majority of what the school will be punished for in as far as probation, scholarship reduction, postseason ban, financial penalties, etc. The HC Responsibility charge is also tied to the depth and number of staffers who have allegations. Now because of severity and/or number of infractions or being found lying, that is what slides the Level of the infraction through the different aggravated, standard, or mitigated levels. Now because of the number of individuals, staff and boosters, who were committing the most severe violations, I do believe that gets you to the Level 1 aggravated part of the matrix for the LOIC. But the aggravated level is just my guess.

[CadaverDawg]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

[ShotgunDawg]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

Agree. Feels like the NCAA has to clamp down somewhere if giving them a 120 schollies reduction is off the table.

[preachermatt83]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

[PMDawg]

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

The thing is, there's enough there that they can make the math work to get to whatever answer they want. Ole Miss is fighting a bunch, they tossed out "exemplary cooperation", Hugh's response says he's an angel from Heaven who was just deceived and shocked by the evil in the world, blah blah blah. The COI probably has a number they're shooting for and they'll figure out a way to get there.

[PMDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

This is my thought as well.

[BrunswickDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

Except that I saw in an article this week that under the new penalty structure, the COI has accepted 95% of all charges presented by enforcement staff. 95%. That's DOJ level "if you get charged you are guilty".

[Jack Lambert]

I think the NCAA know the penalties already and they will let stick what will needed to be stuck to make it work. I think two year bowl band, suspension of Freeze maybe show cause and lost of 30 scholarships. Also lost of all official on campus visits for two years and four years probation with limited coaches in house visits with a bunch of lawyers and doctors disassociated.

[TUSK]

This is my thought as well.

Ditto.

[CadaverDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

So they are going to disregard their new matrix in the first case? Then we should be disappointed

[Tripp McNeely]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

History doesn't tell that story. Wolken tweeted out last week under the new structure, 85% or 95% (I can't remember the number) of allegations across the entire NCAA have not been mitigated down

[Reason2succeed]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

I approve this message. Two years is not nearly enough.

[Reason2succeed]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

Then OM will be vindicated in continuing to cheat after they were already busted because it was not saying that they got any further penalties. NCAA will look totally spineless and it will be a signal to every rogue program to carry on.

[QuadrupleOption]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

From the quoted article above:

“The committee will slot a case and figure out the penalties, but the committee has the discretion to depart from the guidelines, which account for mitigating and aggravating factors, if there truly are extraordinary circumstances.”

It sounds to me like the COI can only depart from the guidelines if there are extenuating circumstances surrounding a particular charge. They don't get to make it up as they go along any more. That was the whole point of introducing the matrix to begin with. I truly believe they will end up getting the minimum allowable penalties per charge (the ones that stick), but they WILL get those penalties. And because they have so many charges, it's going to HURT.

[WSOPdawg]

Then OM will be vindicated in continuing to cheat after they were already busted because it was not saying that they got any further penalties. NCAA will look totally spineless and it will be a signal to every rogue program to carry on.

Precedent-setting. IMO this case will NOT be like the NCAA punishments from 2010 and before. The NCAA can't allow that, they've got to make an example out of TCUN or they become irrelevant.

[Homedawg]

The minimum for each Level 1 standard violation is a 12.5% reduction. I'm guessing (because I can't find an actual explanation) that percentage is counted against a full 25 scholarships per year.
If the COI throws out every violation that UM is disputing, they will be hit with a MINIMUM 30 scholarship reduction.
If the COI agrees with the investigation's findings but imposes the MINIMUM penalty in each case, the are looking at 45 scholarships lost. Minimum.


I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 scholarships, show causes for every coach named, and at least a 4 year bowl ban. It should be an 8 year ban, but if they lose 60 scholarships they won't be making a bowl game in the next 10 years anyway so it's a moot point.

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.