Weather geeks, talk to me

[Dolphus Raymond]

Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.

[msstate7]

April looks promising**

[maroonwhitedawg3ddd]

April looks promising**

LOL!!

[MetEdDawg]

Seeing a pattern change potentially in mid November. Looks like the next week and a half will be dry though. Forecasts of rain through mid December show 5 inches of rain or so based on patterns. That's obviously not enough to do much but it's better than nothing.

The old saying that drought begets drought is something that we are seeing play out right now.

[starkvegasdawg]

This rainfall total map from the GFS over the next 17 days shows the ridge preventing rain from entering MS and AL. You can see the rainfall totals getting shunted up and over the ridge.

[Commercecomet24]

This rainfall total map from the GFS over the next 17 days shows the ridge preventing rain from entering MS and AL. You can see the rainfall totals getting shunted up and over the ridge.

Do your rain dance!

[TheRef]

We MAYYYY have rain before the end of the season. We would have a better chance for an actual wet week before Arkansas before anytime else.

[Dawgface]

I have seen a lot of wet Egg Bowls or around the Egg. IT'S coming.

[msstate7]

I have seen a lot of wet Egg Bowls or around the Egg. IT'S coming.

I hope it's a flood fit for Noah.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.

The truth is, they don't know. Meteorology is neither art nor science. You would be better off asking a gypsy to read your palm.

[starkvegasdawg]

The truth is, they don't know. Meteorology is neither art nor science. You would be better off asking a gypsy to read your palm.

Meteorology is very much science. It's just not advanced to the degree to accurately say what will happen 10+ days out. The advances in forecasting accuracy has increased tremendously the last 20 years.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Meteorology is very much science. It's just not advanced to the degree to accurately say what will happen 10+ days out. The advances in forecasting accuracy has increased tremendously the last 20 years.

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

[starkvegasdawg]

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

And engineering doesn't have near the variables and scale of meteorology.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

And engineering doesn't have near the variables and scale of meteorology.

It doesn't? So engineering is simple compared meteorology? Well, tell the OP whether he needs to water his food plot or not without expending resources such as water.

[Doc]

I am not a weather geek, but do have access to a good one. El Ni?o has given way to La Ni?a and the result will be:
Dec will have near normal temps and near normal precipitation in extreme north Ms. Most of south Ms will see below normal precipitation with near normal temps. Ms Jan temps will be mostly normal, with above normal precipitation in south ms and normal temps in north ms. Feb temps and precipitation will be normal in most of Ms.

[TheRef]

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

Alright, I'm just going to stop you right there. You're right. We have a long ways to go in precision and accuracy. But what is the standard for you? We are taking something as massive as THE ATMOSPHERE and trying to figure out what it will be doing 24, 48, 264 hours from now. With this in mind, we have endless numbers of equations and variables that we are having to work with, just like Engineers. However, we are dealing with something that is constantly moving and we cannot see. Engineers have the advantage of the fact that you can isolate something and you be able to accurate represent it by an equation. However, Meteorologists don't have that luxury. Why? Because you try creating an accurate atmosphere at a small enough level to gain a macro understanding of. Now take it and multiply it by a couple trillion.

There's a reason our calculations REQUIRE a supercomputer. Not just any supercomputer, but some of the strongest and fastest supercomputers ever made. Our equations are infinitely changing and complex ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primit...tive_equations ). Some of our variables cannot be measured, so we estimate using proxies. By the time we calculate these equations and forecast them out 6 hours for let's say a 100 square mile area, you've burned about 20-25 minutes. We also have the chaos variable in our equations. One small deviation from the correct reading, even plugging in the exact same things, will cause DRAMATIC differences in the long-term forecast.

The simple fact is, you don't know a damn thing about how hard it is for Meteorologists. If you saw what are forecasts were 40-50 years ago and compare them to now, you'd be thankful for what all we have gone through to provide you as accurate of a forecast as possible. Do we get forecasts wrong at times? You're damn right. But we ALL get together and discuss what we did wrong. We find the problem, find a solution, fix it, and make it so it doesn't happen again. So before you go talking about how Meteorology isn't a science, you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Have a nice day, BTO. And GTFO

[TheRef]

I apologize for the rant, but don't ever say that Meteorology is not a science. I could've gone on for longer, but I didn't feel like typing out more than that.

[starkvegasdawg]

And for the record, I'm not a met. I've had a total of one college level met class. My degrees are in wildlife biology and business. I just love the field and have studied and tried to learn as much as I can to be a better and safer storm chaser. My overall subject matter knowledge is embarrassing compared to Refs.

[Dawgbite]

We are a cow college, go buy yourself a farmers almanac!

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

I apologize for the rant, but don't ever say that Meteorology is not a science. I could've gone on for longer, but I didn't feel like typing out more than that.

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.