OT: Hurricane Matthew Thread

[LC Dawg]

Matthew will be long gone in Miami Saturday. Projection says eye will be around NC Saturday afternoon. Hey, no expert but I stay at a lot of Holiday Inn Express hotels.

I realize that but if it turns any and hits Miami they may not be too concerned with football Saturday.

[basedog]

Yep. I'm no expert for sure.

[ScoobaDawg]

Ughhh very interesting American and European model just released.... Hurricanes aren't supposed to go south in general...I'm gonna call it voodooland and not worry about it but that sure would be interesting.

[TheRef]

Ughhh very interesting American and European model just released.... Hurricanes aren't supposed to go south in general...I'm gonna call it voodooland and not worry about it but that sure would be interesting.

Ivan did a similar loop in 2004

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest on Matthew. It has now weakened considerably and it barely hanging on as a category 3 with winds of 115mph. That's still good enough for a major hurricane, though. What will be interesting is to see if it regains any strength as it pulls away from Cuba. Here is the latest thinking from the NHC on track and the consensus among the models is that it will make landfall, or come close, along the east central coast of FL. Now here is where things get interesting. A couple of the models have this thing turning back out to sea after that landfall and then looping back around for another pass and making landfall again in South FL. Either that or it picked up some good rum while in Jamaica. I guess the first trip was for the kids to see Disney then it's coming back around to visit South Beach. I'm far from 100% confident it will make that loop, but it will be fun to watch and see.



Obligatory hot woman shot so we can keep up with the Weather Channel

[MetEdDawg]

The recurve back to the south should have people worried. That's not good, especially if it ends up going back over places it rams as a cat 3. Places will already be inundated with water and could potentially receive an additional couple of days worth of tropical storm/hurricane force winds with rain on top of it. Not a good scenario for those people.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I know it's a long way out and no way to tell for sure, but any chance if it loops back that it enters the gulf?

[starkvegasdawg]

I know it's a long way out and no way to tell for sure, but any chance if it loops back that it enters the gulf?

Right now that is not looking likely. The models that do loop it back around then take it back out to sea for good. A couple of spaghetti models did take it into teh Gulf, but I would be more shocked if that happened than if I grabbed an exposed extension cord.

[starkvegasdawg]

I may need to get that extension cord on standby. Latest GFS just now coming in showing Matthew looping and then entering the Gulf.

[Statecoachingblows**]

Wonderful

[starkvegasdawg]

Wonderful

This run never shows it getting close to the MS/AL coast so I'm still not worried about it, but the way this thing has defied what it is supposed to do I'm not saying anything with any degree of certainty. Right now I would not be surprised if it moved over FL and started raining unicorns and skittles.

[TheRef]

One model run showing it in the gulf shouldn't make you worry. 2 or 3 runs showing it, then start worryibg

[msbulldog]

Here's the latest on Matthew. It has now weakened considerably and it barely hanging on as a category 3 with winds of 115mph. That's still good enough for a major hurricane, though. What will be interesting is to see if it regains any strength as it pulls away from Cuba. Here is the latest thinking from the NHC on track and the consensus among the models is that it will make landfall, or come close, along the east central coast of FL. Now here is where things get interesting. A couple of the models have this thing turning back out to sea after that landfall and then looping back around for another pass and making landfall again in South FL. Either that or it picked up some good rum while in Jamaica. I guess the first trip was for the kids to see Disney then it's coming back around to visit South Beach. I'm far from 100% confident it will make that loop, but it will be fun to watch and see.



Obligatory hot woman shot so we can keep up with the Weather Channel

The post that just keeps on giving!

[oldtrickdawg]

spbdawg, you can go to FLL if the flight goes,of course...Flights are cancelled based on the surface winds ,initially, and then the rest of the variables come into play...Now, once you are there, the fun begins...Any chaos created by the storm's passing will be pretty much"in you face."Power failures,traffic jams of people returning to the keys from evacuation/ reduced supplies/gas lines/restaauraant closings...Could take a week or more to settle to reasonable services...Could take you 8 hours to drive to Key West...The further north the big circle hits, the better your chances ,but, I'm thinking rescheduling right now for you....You might go and have the place to yourself but I wouldn't count on its being pleasant...Don't know if you dive but the water will be murky and stirred up for some time after the thing goes north so the diving will be below average....fishing ? may be no one to take you...To properly evacuate , the folks in the keys will have to go to the west coast somewhere/Ft. Myers or somewhere so they may not be able to return until Monday or so...You'll have a better idea as soon as landfall..Will dictate you behavior..A 100 MPH hit will wreak havoc for a long way inland even if ith only glances north of FLL as some predict...If you can reschedule/business ? pleasure ? I would...

[BeastMan]

Alright weather guys, explain this ensemble model. There are usually a ton of potential paths and this is all it's showing

[starkvegasdawg]

Alright weather guys, explain this ensemble model. There are usually a ton of potential paths and this is all it's showing

Good question. That looks like it only picked up the main GFS. I noticed the Euro was still taking it straight out to sea and not looping back after its visit with the eastern coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Your daily eye candy on the weather thread:

[Gutter Cobreh]

This run never shows it getting close to the MS/AL coast so I'm still not worried about it, but the way this thing has defied what it is supposed to do I'm not saying anything with any degree of certainty. Right now I would not be surprised if it moved over FL and started raining unicorns and skittles.

You do realize that skittles are contagious now, or have you not been paying attention???

For anyone near this thing, stay safe or get the hell out of the way.... Thanks for all the updates regarding this storm. This forum has better weather tracking data than any other non-weather site on the interwebs...

[SapperDawg]

.....This forum has better weather tracking data than any other non-weather site on the interwebs...

This is true. I am director of emergency response for my company, these threads are better than what is put out on our incident command calls.

[starkvegasdawg]

Matthew is strengthening again. Pressure is dropping and winds are back up to 140mph. Heard some grumblings it may try to make a run at category 5 again, but just have to wait and see. Needs to get up to 156mph to do that.

Sea surfact temps in its track are abundantly warm enough in the mid to upper 80's.



And shear is neglible.