Arizona & Coastal Carolina the best teams in college baseball?

[Taog Redloh]

This year defies the historical trends of college baseball. But let's not act like these are some crazy flukes.

Bottom line, have a team that can win upper 30s or low 40s games in the regular season, have good pitching, and roll the dice. You can argue that Arizona and Coastal Carolina were host-type teams. I bet over the time the odds still favor national seeds, when you consider there are only 8, and the others come from a pool of 56. Starting in 2011 (move to TD Ameritrade), the chances of a national champion being a national seed are 17% (1 of 6). But considering that that champion came from a pool of 48 (6 years x 8 teams), and the other champions came from 336, that means a single national seed has a 2.08% chance of winning a national championship, while any other postseason team only has a 1.5% chance.

If you factor in hosting, like above, the percentage goes to 4.17% chance to win it all, based on the last 6 years. Teams outside of that are looking at a 0.69% chance.

So, I wouldn't be banking on pulling a 2015 Virginia or 2016 whoever, every year. Because for the most part, it won't happen, plus those teams are likely good enough to host anyway (UVa had a lot of injuries they got back, and Zona/CC are pretty damn good too).

Smart money is on being good enough to host and rolling dice. And elite pitching.