Dak & the NFL

[ShotgunDawg]

Following Dak's performance against Kentucky, I've been trying to figure out what Dak's NFL prospects are & I've got to admit I'm struggling. I realize why NFL scouts may be pessimistic about Dak's NFL possibilities, but I am beginning to wonder if this is more based on perception rather than reality. Dak doesn't have the smoothest throwing motion, gets grouped into the Tebow/Manziel group of QBs, & doesn't throw the greatest deep ball, but, while he does possess these flaws, Dak takes care of the football, can throw from the pocket, has extremely underrated accuracy, doesn't take many sacks, doesn't get hurt, & most of all, Dak is a DUDE. DUDE is the code word for having the "it/leadership/competitive/intelligence factor" that is so incredibly hard for scouts to evaluate. Dak has franchise QB caliber makeup & leadership ability to go along with enough tools to compete at the NFL level.

While I realize that Cardale Jones, Christian Hackenberg, Jared Goff, & Cody Kessler have excellent throwing ability, arm strength, & measurables, are these guys really better players than Dak? Would you really rather put the weight of the franchise on these guys backs rather than a guy like Dak?

Just seeing how Dak has developed his game from the pocket this season & how he has enhanced his ability to read defenses & throw with accuracy, I believe some team is going to get a steal in the 2nd or early 3rd round. Chip Kelly would be crazy to pass on Dak IMO.

What am I missing? What do all these top QB prospects possess that Dak doesn't?

Dak's stats - 67% completion %, 14 TD to 1 INT, 10 Sacks

1. Jared Goff - 66% completion %, 20 TD to 9 INT, 19 Sacks

2. Connor Cook - 58% completion %, 17 TD to 2 INT, 11 Sacks

3. Paxton Lynch - 71% completion %, 17 TD to 1 INT, 9 Sacks

4. Cardale Jones - 63% completion %, 7 TD to 5 INT, 9 Sacks

5. Christian Hackenberg - 51% completion %, 11 TD to 2 INT, 27 Sacks

6, Cody Kessler - 69% completion %, 18 TD to 5 INT, 19 Sacks

[Coach34]

Dak is a 3rd-5th round choice right now. He will have a chance to raise that at pro days and the Combine. Being 6'1 doesnt help

[ShotgunDawg]

Dak is a 3rd-5th round choice right now. He will have a chance to raise that at pro days and the Combine. Being 6'1 doesnt help

I get that, but I am having trouble figuring out why. Why is he a 3rd to 5th round choice? Why are teams going to take extremely mediocre/ risky college players over Dak?

Because they have slightly better arm strength?
Because they are 6'3 instead of 6'1"?

There are tool monkeys & then there are guys that can absolutely play. In baseball, I would put guys like Dallas Keuchel, Ben Zobrist, Kevin Pillar, etc.. into that category. Just saying, don't be surprised if Dak is that 3rd -5th round QB draft pick that ends up being extremely successful in the NFL. He checks a lot of the boxes that matter.Size, arm strength, & throwing motion don't matter if you can't play or have instincts.

I looking for deeper level thinking here. I realize why there are negatives Dak, but I beginning to wonder if those negatives matter.

What keeps Dak from being a successful NFL QB?

[BeardoMSU]

I get that, but I am having trouble figuring out why. Why is he a 3rd to 5th round choice? Why are teams going to take extremely mediocre college players over Dak?

I looking for deeper level thinking here. I realize why there are negatives Dak, but I beginning to wonder if those negatives matter.

What keeps Dak from being a successful NFL QB?

Keep in mind: Russel Wilson was a 3rd round pick at QB and he's doing just find.

[Leroy Jenkins]

What keeps Dak from being a successful NFL QB?

Because he's only half blue-collar**

In all seriousness, I think Tebow not being successful in the NFL style of play scares some. I think they may get lumped together.

[thf24]

My thinking is that Dak's floor is a career backup, for these reasons you stated:

takes care of the football, can throw from the pocket, has extremely underrated accuracy, doesn't take many sacks, doesn't get hurt

Right now, from a pro perspective he's exactly the guy you need to come in and not lose you games if your franchise QB goes down. I could easily see him being a franchise guy after a few years, though. He has the IT factor, and his progression since he started college shows that he has the raw talent and the work ethic to continue to improve and learn what he needs to be an NFL starter.

[BB30]

I think if Dak was just a tad bit better at hitting those deep balls he would have a chance to go higher. You have to be able to hit those throws in the NFL. He hasn't shown great touch and he is playing in an offense that doesn't ask as much pre snap that an NFL offense will. He will have a whole lot to learn at the next level depending on who picks him up compared to QBs playing in a more traditional offense. That being said QB play has not been great in the NFL outside of a hand full of guys. And I doubt it matters since scouts dive into a lot more info and metrics then the casual fan but there seems to be a stigma around read option QBs having success at the next level. There are a few that have but if you look at the great QBs coming out of college such as RG3, Manziel etc. they have tended to struggle or stay healthy.

[ShotgunDawg]

Keep in mind: Russel Wilson was a 3rd round pick at QB and he's doing just find.

Russell Wilson is quicker & has a better arm than Dak, while also having franchise leading makeup. However, you do bring up a point....

The job of an NFL scout is not to recommend the player with the best tool set, but rather to recommend the best player. Dak gets lumped in with Tebow & Manziel, but he's extremely different.

He's a different level passer & better mechanically than Tebow & he's bigger, has better makeup, has a stronger arm, & takes care of the ball better than Manziel. He's a different guy.

The biggest question about Dak is if he's more Taj Boyd or more McNabb.

I feel that if this were 2008, Dak would be a 2nd round pick, but, due to the failure of Manziel & Tebow, there has been an over compensation in the market for players like Dak just because they remind people of Tebow & Manziel

[mcain31]

Dak still has to work on his touch. Mullen's previous QBs factor into the equation also. The biggest complaints about Spread QBs are that they have horrible footwork and can't read defenses. Dak is gonna have to fight perception. I think he is a 3rd day pick. I'm pessimistic about spread QBs translating into pro QBs.

[mcain31]

Keep in mind: Russel Wilson was a 3rd round pick at QB and he's doing just find.

Russell Wilson was a 3rd round pick because of his height. He played in 2 pro style systems in college.

[Blackout]

Check downs don't routinely go for first downs in the league.

Much less time in the pocket, quicker developing plays. Dak is very accurate when receivers have time to run a full route and make a window. Bama and Ole Miss last year showed what pressure can do. We will need superb route running and decision making against those 2 this year. Gabe and Donald have to be big for us, along with the entire O-Line and TE blocking.

The deep ball.

[SignalToNoise]

Mechanics can be adjusted/coached with enough effort.

QB in the NFL is about reading defenses: Understanding coverage, recognizing alignments, keying on certain defenders, anticipating receivers coming open, etc. Dak will need to prove that he can do more than just throw to an open receiver or know when to keep/give the ball on a read option. I'm not saying he can't already do those things but to be successful in the NFL they are a must.

[smootness]

I get that, but I am having trouble figuring out why. Why is he a 3rd to 5th round choice? Why are teams going to take extremely mediocre/ risky college players over Dak?

Because they have slightly better arm strength?
Because they are 6'3 instead of 6'1"?

Honestly, yes, that's a lot of it. Scouts looked at Dak before this year as being a very successful college QB who didn't have the traits to be very successful in the NFL...fairly short, decent arm but not a cannon, and without great accuracy. Helped by playing in a spread offense.

My guess is that some of those concerns with his passing have been alleviated but probably not by that much. He needs to show out at his pro day or at the combine in just throwing the ball. He is very good at avoiding pressure and keeping his eyes downfield, and his height just is what it is, so it will all come down to what teams think about his passing ability. If he shows good arm strength and an ability to make all the throws, I could see him climbing up into the 3rd round. But it's pretty much impossible for me to see him going higher.

A lot of NFL scouting comes down to what the guys looks like. And Dak doesn't fit the mold of an NFL QB.

[HSVDawg]

Dak's throwing mechanics, release timing, and decision making are already far superior to that of Tebow or Manziel. He's only lumped in with those guys because he is a "dual threat" guy. The decision making part has improved significantly just this season.

Dak's biggest thing right now is consistency. Last Saturday, every pass was exactly where it needed to be. The screen passes and outlets to Holloway were the perfect touch and hit him in stride. Downfield throws to DeRunnya were exactly where they needed to be where only he could get them. The pick was his only bad throw, and I think that was only due to him waiting a half-second too late to throw the ball. However, early in the year he wasn't always making those throws. The off target screen passes to Shump against LSU and A&M have gotten a lot of attention already, but there were several other easy throws in the first 4-5 games that were either missed, or were completions that the receiver had to adjust to make a play on the ball.

Where Dak ends up getting picked will depend strictly on how reliably he is able to make the routine throws and put those passes exactly where they have to be. He needs to show improvement in that area. Against Kentucky or Texas A&M, a 20 yard completion on a slant to DeRunnya where he has to stop his monentum to catch the ball looks good to everyone in the stadium and watching on TV. In the NFL, that's an interception. The windows are so much smaller.

[HSVDawg]

I get that, but I am having trouble figuring out why. Why is he a 3rd to 5th round choice? Why are teams going to take extremely mediocre/ risky college players over Dak?

So you're basically asking why will NFL scouts continue to make the same mistakes they've always made. Last year, the wise all-knowing scouts declared Jameis Winston the clear number one over Mariota. Most every casual fan found this to be a laughable assertion, but hey, these guys are professionals. Then of course, you watch this season play out and see how Mariota has been a better passer (with a much worse supporting cast) and also adds the rushing element that Winston cannot provide. Then of course you also have Leaf over Manning, Tom Brady going in the 7th round, Akili Smith and Jamarcus Russell going #1, and the list goes on.

QB is actually the position that has seen a much higher proportion of late round success stories because it requires mental intangibles and determination to constantly improve moreso than any other position. Scouts quite frankly have no idea how to evaluate either of those criteria. If you look at the most successful QB's in the game over the past 10-15 years, almost all except Peyton Manning have been thought of as being too short, too slow, having too little arm strength, were "system" QB's in college, or had some other flaw that they had to overcome by determination to constantly get better and not get down on themselves. Brees, R. Wilson, P. Rivers, and Brady all fit this mold, and even a guy like Aaron Rodgers who has arguably the greatest arm talent of any QB to ever play the game still slipped to the end of the first round and had to prove himself as well. I think Dak compares favorably to all these guys in terms of the intangibles. For that reason, I think he will be successful regardless of where he gets picked.

[Sacrifice]

I think if Dak was just a tad bit better at hitting those deep balls he would have a chance to go higher. You have to be able to hit those throws in the NFL. He hasn't shown great touch and he is playing in an offense that doesn't ask as much pre snap that an NFL offense will. He will have a whole lot to learn at the next level depending on who picks him up compared to QBs playing in a more traditional offense. That being said QB play has not been great in the NFL outside of a hand full of guys. And I doubt it matters since scouts dive into a lot more info and metrics then the casual fan but there seems to be a stigma around read option QBs having success at the next level. There are a few that have but if you look at the great QBs coming out of college such as RG3, Manziel etc. they have tended to struggle or stay healthy.

I totally agree with this, to me this is Daks biggest weakness. If your gonna be an effective NFL QB you have to be able to work the entire field. For some reason Dak has trouble putting air under his deep throws and leading recievers. If he can get this down, I think he could be a great NFL QB. He's got plenty of arm strength, he's mobile, can read defenses and he's very accurate throwing inside of 20 yards. Plus he's got that special ability that all great QBs have and that is to pull hisself out of a bad game. I've seen him do this several times. He starts out slow, we fall behind then he turns it around in the 2nd half. Every great QB I've seen have that ability.

[I seen it dawg]

Checks down too much. Can't play in the NFL doing that.

[Johnson85]

Dak's throwing mechanics, release timing, and decision making are already far superior to that of Tebow or Manziel. He's only lumped in with those guys because he is a "dual threat" guy. The decision making part has improved significantly just this season.

Does Dak really get lumped in with Tebow and Manziel? I get Tebow just because of the Mullen connection and running the same offense, but you don't look at Dak's throwing motion and wonder how he is a college QB. But Manziel's game doesn't seem much like Dak's at all to me. Completely different runners and while Dak passes within the offense more than he scrambles to make plays, Manziel almost relied on scrambling to create plays.

I'm not an NFL guy, but to me, Dak looks like an almost NFL QB in just about every aspect. His arm strength is almost NFL, his accuracy is almost NFL, his ability to go through progressions is almost NFL, his height is almost NFL. Even with his running ability, as good as it is in college, I think it doesn't quite translate to the NFL. Not quite fast enough to be a true running threat and not quite big enough to muscle his way to extra yards.

On the flip side, you have all the intangibles and the willingness/ability to learn. And I think the only thing that he does poorly for an NFL qb prospect is throw the deep ball. I would guess that his intangibles and lack of a devastating weakness allows him to have a decent career. As long as Dak gets a chance, I would expect him to carve out a nice career as a back-up. He just needs to get with the right coach.

[Taog Redloh]

Needs to move to TE, just like Tebow should have.

[BeardoMSU]

Just found this article. Speak of the devil...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...witter_nfl_cfb