MSU 2 Deep Talent Level vs Ole Miss 2 Deep talent level

[ShotgunDawg]

Bo Bounds made a comment this morning that Ole Miss had top 15 talent & MSU had top 30 talent. These kinds of comments always bug me because all that was considered was recruiting rankings, rather than attrition, success in the program, & who is actually playing on the field.

So, to crosscheck this, I took the two deeps of both Ole Miss & MSU, looked up their high school rankings, & compared both teams. I used the 247 rankings & went by the numerical value & not star ratings, as that is much more accurate since the difference between a 3 & 4 star seems large, while the difference between an 88 rating & 89 is virtually nothing.

Here are the findings:

- Ole Miss will field a two deep this season that has an average rating of 88.7 & MSU will field a two deep that averages 86.2

- Interestingly, at 13 out of the 22 starting positions, MSU has the lower rated recruit listed as the starter

- MSU's offense, which is likely to be one of the top offenses in the SEC this season, has an average rating of 85.2

- Ole Miss' offense, which should finish somewhere between 6-12 in the conference, has an average star rating of 88.3

- Ole Miss' defense, which is supposed to be one of the best in the country this season, has an average rating of 89.2

- MSU's defense that apparently has no talent, has an average star rating of 87.2

These are the facts & below is the data. Personally, I think it is clear that 247, while a great website, has done an absolutely pathetic job at rating MSU recruits. There are first round talents & All Americans that have below 90 ratings. Plus, when 13 or your 22 projected starters are the lower rated recruit, that should raise some eyebrows about how the starters were evaluated.

Ole Miss

Treadwell 99
Jones 83
Tunsil 99
C Morris 90
A Morris 89
Bouldin 84
Still 85
Conyers 82
Bell 84
Taylor 97
Cooper 87
Rawlings 84
Engram 84
Liggins 86
Adebyejo 86
Stringfellow96
Core 80
Pack 93
Kelly 87
Buchanan 90
Walton 87
Wilkins 91
Brown 85
Ward 98
Nkemdech 100
Speaks 91
Gross 89
Hamilton 85
Haynes 88
Youngblood 77
D Nkem 85
Johnson 96
Russell 88
Conner 98
Moore 83
Shepherd 89
Webster 88
Hilton 84
C Brown 84
Elston 87
Hampton 95
Bridges 91
Moore 93

Mississippi State
Prescott 87
Fitzgerald 81
Shumpert 91
Williams 90
Morrow 83
F Brown 84
Wilson 82
Gray 91
Ross 91
Myles 85
Walley 81
Hutcherson 85
Warren 83
Jenkins 83
Malone 84
Calhoun 81
Clayborn 83
Johnson 85
Desper 86
Thomas 88
Senior 81
Rankin 91
Jefferson 87
Coleman 86
R Brown 84
Calvin 86
Jones 99
Hoyett 79
James 92
Adams 85
Gray 85
Jung 87
R Brown 88
Green 89
Brown 91
Harris 81
Coman 83
Bryant 86
Market 87
Peters 97
Calhoun 85
Cleveland 82
Redmond 89
Graham 91

[RoverDog]

Prescott (87) vs Buchannan (90)
Treadwell (99) vs Bear (82)
Lil Nkim (85) vs R Brown (84)

This tells me all I need to know about the comparisons. If Bo wants to use rankings, he should update them based on current impact and development. Prescott would be 95+, Bear would be 90+ and no way Denzel is better than Richie. Granted, I don't know their roster as well, so I'm sure there are some adjustments there too....maybe someone here can help with that. Anyone want to re-rate these guys based on development/contribution?

[Thick]

Complete joke of a rating system. It just goes to show you that all of it is first rate bullshit! Maybe if actual ex-football players and coaches were involved it would be better.

[ShotgunDawg]

I don't want to come across tough on 247 for these ratings, as every site did the same, and I have respect for talent evaluators and realize it's an impossible job. However, these results speak for themselves, if the 247 talent evaluation staff worked for an NFL team, they would have likely been fired.

I do understand that the 247 scouts are likely fighting their grading scale, as stars and a one number rating are awful ways to rate players. Does the star indicate the present/future/ or ceiling of the player?

I think where recruiting services are struggling with MSU is that we are recruiting talented yet raw prospects and Ole Miss is recruiting more refined players and the recruiting sites are having incredible difficulty with how to balance those two variables.

What i suggest 247 do, is go to a 3 grade system. Instead of giving a player one rating such as an 88, allow the evaluator to put a present/future/ Ceiling grade on the player.

For example: instead of Prescott being an 87, it would have been much more fair for his grade to be a 84 present in high school/ 87 what we think he will be/ 95 what he could be if everything comes together.

Lastly, this is why I laugh when people act like they know something when comparing players like Metcalf and AJ Brown. Simply, you don't know anything. Sure, it's good debate, but calling someone elses opinion ridiculous or he has to be a top 5 player in the state, makes you look dumb in the end.

[DistrictDawg92]

Prescott (87) vs Buchannan (90)
Treadwell (99) vs Bear (82)
Lil Nkim (85) vs R Brown (84)

This tells me all I need to know about the comparisons. If Bo wants to use rankings, he should update them based on current impact and development. Prescott would be 95+, Bear would be 90+ and no way Denzel is better than Richie. Granted, I don't know their roster as well, so I'm sure there are some adjustments there too....maybe someone here can help with that. Anyone want to re-rate these guys based on development/contribution?

While I completely agree with you, Richie was an 88, Ryan Brown was the 84, which is a joke. A good comparison would be Ryan Brown who was a low 3 star to Channing Ward who was a top 5 DE in the nation.

[WinningIsRelentless]

Hey Bo,
Great Qbs elevate the talent around them decent Qbs decrease talent level around them

[RoverDog]

While I completely agree with you, Richie was an 88, Ryan Brown was the 84, which is a joke. A good comparison would be Ryan Brown who was a low 3 star to Channing Ward who was a top 5 DE in the nation.

Gotcha...thank you for catching and correcting that.

[CadaverDawg]

Interesting stuff, Shotgun. Thanks.

I don't suppose you could do a comparison of ours vs Bama's 2 deep could you? The reason why, I'd like to try and quantify what ~2 points difference equates to in wins/elite status. Because when I look at a ~2 point difference between us and OM, plus some awful misses by the ratings systems, I see a very very small difference in overall talent despite hearing constantly how much more talented OM is overall.

In other words, is Bama 5+ points better than us on the 2 deep overall? Because that would make sense when looking at their recruiting. If they're only ~3-4 points higher, it shows that 2 points means more than I think it does in terms of us vs OM.

If DeRunnya is a 87 and Treadwell a 99...then those 2 points are the equivalent to running a 4.31 forty vs a 4.33 forty...doesn't equivalate to shit.

Thanks for the write up

[ShotgunDawg]

Cadaver, I'll run Alabama's in a while

To add to my original post, if we make conservative, reasonable corrections to the egregious mistakes that were made in the evaluations for both Ole Miss & MSU players that have played and are know quantities, it is shocking how close the two talent levels come out to. Simply, the talent that Ole Miss & MSU are fielding on Saturdays is basically the same, with MSU being significantly better at the most important position on the field.

If we make the following changes:

Engram 84 93
Core 80 88
Buchanan 90 85
Ward 98 85
Gross 89 92
Haynes 88 92
D Nkem 85 88
Johnson 96 92
Hilton 84 88

Mississippi State

Prescott 87 97
F Brown 84 89
Wilson 82 95
Myles 85 88
Warren 83 88
Malone 84 92
Clayborn 83 90
Calhoun 81 90
Desper 86 88
Thomas 88 84
Senior 81 88
R Brown 84 92
Redmond 89 95

Ole Miss fields a two deep with an average star rating of 88.9 & MSU's is 88.1, which is well within the margin for error & a negligible amount. MSU & Ole Miss have the same talent level

[Bothrops]

Damn, this is good stuff. Just goes to show how skewed these rankings are. There is a lot of bias in the rankings of prospects from schools outside MS. Especially suburban high schools.

[ShotgunDawg]

The average rating for Alabama's two deep is 93.3.

Their offense comes in at 92.5 & their defense at a crisp 94.08

Two things about Bama:

- They are the opposite of MSU in the ratings. Their player receive the best case scenario & MSU's players often receive the pessimistic case or are not known.

- If you are a recruit & don't have a 95 or better rating, then going to Bama is going to kill your career because you won't receive the opportunity to get better. MSU is putting sub-95 rated players in the NFL, year after year, & Alabama's sub-95 rated players almost exclusively are on 2nd string & thus never get the opportunity to become an NFL player. It's not that Alabama isn't developing players, it's that the game of football doesn't allow you to play more than 11 players at one time & thus the other players don't get the opportunity.

Here is the data:

Foster 98
Falkins 88
Stewart 95
Sims 96
Black 97
Kief 91
Robinson 99
Kirven 92
Pierschbacher 96
Luatua 87
Kelly 90
Hassanauer 92
Bozeman 87
Taylor 90
Jackson 94
Greene 94
Howard 99
Smith 84
Nysewander85
Coker 86
Cornwell 96
Henry 99
Drake 94
Allen 99
Pettway 89
Reed 89
Lake 86
Robinson 98
Tomlinson 91
Devall 93
Anderson 96
Foster 99
Hamiton 91
Ragland 97
Lee 95
Williams 96
Brown 99
Sylve 94
Jackson 88
Jones 97
Smith 96
Harrison 91
Jones 97
Humphrey 99
Smith 95
Washington 89

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

They are the opposite of MSU in the ratings. Their player receive the best case scenario & MSU's players often receive the pessimistic case or are not known.

I agree, but over the last couple of years some of our guys have been getting ratings bumps after they've been committed to us and were seen in camp. I think people are realizing our ability to identify and develop raw talent and therefore we are getting more national guys to come cover our camps. Thoughts?

[ShotgunDawg]

I agree, but over the last couple of years some of our guys have been getting ratings bumps after they've been committed to us and were seen in camp. I think people are realizing our ability to identify and develop raw talent and therefore we are getting more national guys to come cover our camps. Thoughts?

I agree & this is evidenced by MSU's depth chart currently having a lower rated starting over a high rated at 13 or 22 positions. Many times those high rated players are younger.

Also, I still think they recruiting sites are having a tough time figuring out how to balance risk versus ceiling.

For example: who is better: A 92 rated player that is extremely refined but only has a ceiling of 93 or an 87 rated player who is raw but has a ceiling of 97?

These are questions that NFL & MLB teams deal with in their draft rooms on a daily basis, and there is no correct answer. It mostly comes down to what team needs are. But recruiting websites are stuck on this question & it's why their rating system (Stars & one numerical ratings) sucks. The scouts are unable to say to say what they want to say. MSU players are reaching their ceiling, but that ceiling was always there. It didn't come out of thin air.

For example: De'Runnya is rated an 82, but that's because he was raw. Anyone could have seen that he was tall, athletic, & fast, but the recruiting websites were stuck with how to value a high ceiling/low floor prospect just like every professional draft room. Figuring how to balance this is how teams win World Series & Super Bowls.

[Todd4State]

Complete joke of a rating system. It just goes to show you that all of it is first rate bullshit! Maybe if actual ex-football players and coaches were involved it would be better.

This is a novel idea. Of course, scout would probably hire Billy Brewer.

[DawgPoundtheRock]

There are 10's of thousands of high school football players in this country who play at vastly different levels of competition. There are the traditional powerhouse teams, the teams that play in the higher divisions of their state, and then there are the Maben High Schools of the world. The rating services do not have the resources in personnel, time or expertise to properly evaluate all of these players. I believe that they rely heavily on local sports writers who cover high school football to initially identify the top players. They are trying to evaluate 17 and 18 year old kids who may or may not have reached their ceiling. In addition, the higher classification in which an individual plays, the more likely that individual is to receive a higher rating. The problem is that these ratings are all very subjective and are influenced by which colleges have made offers to that player.

This is why college coaches do their own evaluations and totally ignore the rating services. Only the fanbases care about recruiting rankings as determined by the rating services.

The above is only my opinion and has no basis in knowledge or fact.

[Todd4State]

There are 10's of thousands of high school football players in this country who play at vastly different levels of competition. There are the traditional powerhouse teams, the teams that play in the higher divisions of their state, and then there are the Maben High Schools of the world. The rating services do not have the resources in personnel, time or expertise to properly evaluate all of these players. I believe that they rely heavily on local sports writers who cover high school football to initially identify the top players. They are trying to evaluate 17 and 18 year old kids who may or may not have reached their ceiling. In addition, the higher classification in which an individual plays, the more likely that individual is to receive a higher rating. The problem is that these ratings are all very subjective and are influenced by which colleges have made offers to that player.

This is why college coaches do their own evaluations and totally ignore the rating services. Only the fanbases care about recruiting rankings as determined by the rating services.

The above is only my opinion and has no basis in knowledge or fact.

That's a lame excuse by the recruiting services. College coaches have to actually coach their players on campus and be there a good bit of time and yet they still somehow manage to find these under the radar guys.

These recruiting sites have guys that pretty much their only job is to.....follow recruiting. You would think that they would be able to find these players out with the time on their hands.

It also doesn't explain why they had Chris Jones rated a 2-3 star guy before he blew up. He was "known about". Doesn't explain why they consistently undervalue players from Rosa Fort despite the fact that their players almost always seem to pan out.

[DawgPoundtheRock]

That's a lame excuse by the recruiting services. College coaches have to actually coach their players on campus and be there a good bit of time and yet they still somehow manage to find these under the radar guys.

These recruiting sites have guys that pretty much their only job is to.....follow recruiting. You would think that they would be able to find these players out with the time on their hands.

It also doesn't explain why they had Chris Jones rated a 2-3 star guy before he blew up. He was "known about". Doesn't explain why they consistently undervalue players from Rosa Fort despite the fact that their players almost always seem to pan out.

I agree. It is an excuse. I guess the point that I am trying to make is that the recruiting services rating are fallible. Therefore, to try to compare the talent level of any given team versus another based on recruiting services rankings is an exercise in futility. It's fun, but the only thing that counts is when those two teams strap it on Saturday to find out who has the better talent (and coaching and all the other things that make college football).

[Out of Bounds]

Bo Bounds made a comment this morning that Ole Miss had top 15 talent & MSU had top 30 talent. These kinds of comments always bug me because all that was considered was recruiting rankings, rather than attrition, success in the program, & who is actually playing on the field.

So, to crosscheck this, I took the two deeps of both Ole Miss & MSU, looked up their high school rankings, & compared both teams. I used the 247 rankings & went by the numerical value & not star ratings, as that is much more accurate since the difference between a 3 & 4 star seems large, while the difference between an 88 rating & 89 is virtually nothing.

Here are the findings:

- Ole Miss will field a two deep this season that has an average rating of 88.7 & MSU will field a two deep that averages 86.2

- Interestingly, at 13 out of the 22 starting positions, MSU has the lower rated recruit listed as the starter

- MSU's offense, which is likely to be one of the top offenses in the SEC this season, has an average rating of 85.2

- Ole Miss' offense, which should finish somewhere between 6-12 in the conference, has an average star rating of 88.3

- Ole Miss' defense, which is supposed to be one of the best in the country this season, has an average rating of 89.2

- MSU's defense that apparently has no talent, has an average star rating of 87.2

These are the facts & below is the data. Personally, I think it is clear that 247, while a great website, has done an absolutely pathetic job at rating MSU recruits. There are first round talents & All Americans that have below 90 ratings. Plus, when 13 or your 22 projected starters are the lower rated recruit, that should raise some eyebrows about how the starters were evaluated.

Ole Miss

Treadwell 99
Jones 83
Tunsil 99
C Morris 90
A Morris 89
Bouldin 84
Still 85
Conyers 82
Bell 84
Taylor 97
Cooper 87
Rawlings 84
Engram 84
Liggins 86
Adebyejo 86
Stringfellow96
Core 80
Pack 93
Kelly 87
Buchanan 90
Walton 87
Wilkins 91
Brown 85
Ward 98
Nkemdech 100
Speaks 91
Gross 89
Hamilton 85
Haynes 88
Youngblood 77
D Nkem 85
Johnson 96
Russell 88
Conner 98
Moore 83
Shepherd 89
Webster 88
Hilton 84
C Brown 84
Elston 87
Hampton 95
Bridges 91
Moore 93

Mississippi State
Prescott 87
Fitzgerald 81
Shumpert 91
Williams 90
Morrow 83
F Brown 84
Wilson 82
Gray 91
Ross 91
Myles 85
Walley 81
Hutcherson 85
Warren 83
Jenkins 83
Malone 84
Calhoun 81
Clayborn 83
Johnson 85
Desper 86
Thomas 88
Senior 81
Rankin 91
Jefferson 87
Coleman 86
R Brown 84
Calvin 86
Jones 99
Hoyett 79
James 92
Adams 85
Gray 85
Jung 87
R Brown 88
Green 89
Brown 91
Harris 81
Coman 83
Bryant 86
Market 87
Peters 97
Calhoun 85
Cleveland 82
Redmond 89
Graham 91

That was taken out of context. I referenced according to the recruiting rankings. If you've listened to the show more than that 1 segment, then you would know I've given Mullen credit as an outstanding talent evaluator & developer of talent. However, looking at modern day recruiting rankings (post 2000 or 2002).....only elite recruiters have won the national championship. Oregon is a semi-elite recruiter and played for the national championship twice. You have to recruit in the top-20....annually to have a shot to win it all (at a minimum). What Mullen & MSU accomplished last yr (ranked #1) was an anomaly and remarkable. Out of Bounds has acknowledged & discussed that dozens of times.
Out of Bounds podcast: http://*******/1JHXEOj
Out of Bounds Radio App w podcast: http://*******/1l69XZN

[CadaverDawg]

That was taken out of context. I referenced according to the recruiting rankings. If you've listened to the show more than that 1 segment, then you would know I've given Mullen credit as an outstanding talent evaluator & developer of talent. However, looking at modern day recruiting rankings (post 2000 or 2002).....only elite recruiters have won the national championship. Oregon is a semi-elite recruiter and played for the national championship twice. You have to recruit in the top-20....annually to have a shot to win it all (at a minimum). What Mullen & MSU accomplished last yr (ranked #1) was an anomaly and remarkable. Out of Bounds has acknowledged & discussed that dozens of times.
Out of Bounds podcast: http://*******/1JHXEOj
Out of Bounds Radio App w podcast: http://*******/1l69XZN

Sorry Bo, but I'm afraid you're missing the point. He's saying, you're using a very flawed ratings system to define "elite recruiting"? Based on the numbers in the OP showing MSU and OM as basically even in recruiting on the 2 deep, how can you claim OM as "elite" recruiters compared to Dan?

If A (OM) = B (MSU), then A can't be elite and B be non-elite. It's like me using the preseason Top 25 polls to determine the National Champion....its flawed

[ShotgunDawg]

That was taken out of context. I referenced according to the recruiting rankings. If you've listened to the show more than that 1 segment, then you would know I've given Mullen credit as an outstanding talent evaluator & developer of talent. However, looking at modern day recruiting rankings (post 2000 or 2002).....only elite recruiters have won the national championship. Oregon is a semi-elite recruiter and played for the national championship twice. You have to recruit in the top-20....annually to have a shot to win it all (at a minimum). What Mullen & MSU accomplished last yr (ranked #1) was an anomaly and remarkable. Out of Bounds has acknowledged & discussed that dozens of times.
Out of Bounds podcast: http://*******/1JHXEOj
Out of Bounds Radio App w podcast: http://*******/1l69XZN

We drug him out!!!!

I can respect this, & I apologize for not listening to the entire show.

I do think it's incredibly logical to say that the teams with the best players should/will win the national championship, but I think a "non-elite recruiter" with an "A" QB is going to win one soon. With the amount of money that is now in college football. schools like MSU, Ole Miss, Baylor, TCU, Oregon, Arizona, etc... are now able to hold onto their coaching staffs for extended periods of time, where as in the past those staffs would be purged by "elite recruiters" when they had a run a poor seasons. This allows 2nd tier recruiters to build programs & recruit to systems like never before. Along with this, football is becoming more of a thinking mans game, & the quality of high school football being played in rural areas has elevated, & all this leads to there being more parity across the sport. Simply, the talent levels of the players that play in the game (the top 50 or so players) is closer than it's ever been between the "elite recruiters" & top 30 recruiters.

Lastly, with my post, I was just pointing out that, regardless of what the recruiting rankings say, MSU & Ole Miss are running out virtually the same talent level on Saturdays.