A look at our baseball recruiting

[Todd4State]

I am sure that people are wondering "why do I hear about all of these good recruits and then they go to pot when they get to MSU"? That's a valid question. The first thing I would say is to keep in mind that this current class is usually the one that most people are referring to when discussing the high ceiling of our prospects for the future. We've never had a class with this many Under Armour AA's, Perfect Game All-Americans, and Team USA members in it. Every other class since Cohen has been here- not so much. That's not to say that there aren't highly rated players in the previous classes, but that we have very recently been very JUCO heavy. I'm going to make that very clear in just a second.

Now I am not TOTALLY against JUCO players, but I do not prefer them. There are several reasons for that. They are JUCO for a reason. Some are there because of talent. Some are there because of grades like Van Pope back in the day. And really what you are looking for are guys that are overlooked or blossomed late- like many of the JUCO guys that you hear about like Albert Pujols and Craig Kimbrel. Players like that are the outliers. Another reason I don't care for JUCO players is you are getting two years max out of them. Now I do think JUCO is good for back-up catchers, which is a very important position to me because you need guys like Lovelady for depth, and the other thing is you can sometimes find some good submarine/sidearm type guys who can come in and maybe eat some innings for you. IMO though, I think in general we are better off going after guys out of high school and developing them.

SO- what I am going to do is look at our past five classes and break them down. I picked five because we have players represented in those classes and beyond that it would get redundant and not very relevant.

2014

Ryan Gridley- HS, solid player as a freshman
Cole Gordon- HS (RS)
Paxton Stover- HS, struggled as a freshman
Aaron Dominguez- HS (RS)
Jesse McCord- HS, struggled as a freshman, but has a very high upside
Taylor Stafford- HS, transferred out
Andrew Mahoney- HS, (RS) may not be on the team, unconfirmed. High upside but gamble due to injury.
Daniel Brown- JUCO, struggled after showing initial promise
Matt Spruill- JUCO, struggled after decent start
Luke Reynolds- JUCO, struggling
John Holland- JUCO, initially at FSU, inconsistent
Michael Smith- JUCO, hurt
Logan Elliott- JUCO, struggled
Josh Lovelady- JUCO, struggled at plate, great defensively
Cole Barlow- JUCO (RS) may not be on team, unconfirmed
Trent Waddell- JUCO, struggled
Chase Vallot- UA All-American, left for MLB
Dale Burdick- left for MLB

Totals: 7 High school, 10 JUCO, 2 lost to MLB

Of the JUCO's in this class, only Holland (who has D-I experience) has had the most impact. Other than that, Gridley has been very good and McCord will likely be a SEC starter by the time his career is over. So, the best player in this group has been the high school player despite his youth.

2013

Reid Humphreys- (HS) Drafted by Nationals, leads team in home runs.
Austin Sexton- (HS) SEC weekend starter. Missed senior year due to injury, but will be drafted after his junior year.
Dakota Hudson- (HS) Drafted by Rangers. Has SEC weekend potential, probably will be drafted regardless. Played sparingly so far.
Brent Rooker- (HS) RS, but will be a SEC starter and has been a DH/PH guy fairly regularly
Vance Tatum- (HS) SEC weekend starter, will be drafted after junior year.
Ben Hudspeth- (JUCO) injury plagued
Cody Walker- (JUCO) Platooned as a SEC starter
Glenn Irby- (HS) No longer on team
Jake Vickerson- (JUCO) platoons as a SEC starter
Dylan Ingram- No longer on team
Zac Houston- (HS) SEC relief guy
Avery Geyer- (HS) No longer on team
Jacob Billingsley- (HS) Injured
Gavin Collins- (HS) SEC player, will be drafted
Paul Young (JUCO) Drafted by Indians, injury plagued
Levi Mintz- (HS) Solid SEC relief guy
Lucas Laster (JUCO) SEC starter, probably will be drafted
Seth Heck (JUCO) SEC starter
Joey Swinarski (HS) Injury plagued and has RS

Totals: 13 HS guys 6 JUCO guys and 0 lost to MLB. This was a good class for JUCO's because of Heck, Laster, and Vickerson- but compare them to the talent and upside of Collins, Humphreys, Tatum, Sexton, Hudson, and Mintz. This also means that 15 members of our 35 man roster are JUCO guys. That's way too many.

CLASSES ASSEMBLED BEFORE OMAHA

2012

Daniel Garner- (HS) No longer on team despite setting SEC record for BABIP.
John Marc Shelly- (HS) No longer on team, injuries
Cody Brown- (HS) SEC starter
Brett Pirtle- (JUCO) All-SEC type player
Derrick Armstrong- (JUCO) platoon starter
Wes Stokes- (JUCO) No longer on team
Alex Detz- (JUCO) SEC starter
Zach Randolph- (JUCO) provided catching depth
Jacob Robson- (HS) SEC starter, drafted by Padres
Kyle Hann- (HS) no longer on team, committed to Oklahoma State
William DuPont- (HS) Signed with Blue Jays out of high school

Totals: HS- 5, JUCO 5 Signed with MLB 1. So yet again, a class with as many JUCO's as high school guys, which is a bad proportion. Even though Pirtle was a huge get and the best player in this class, Robson and Cody Brown have been very good SEC players.

2011

Nick Amirati- (JUCO) SEC starter, drafted by Marlins out of HS
Matthew Britton- (HS) SEC platoon starter, inconsistent
Philip Casey- (HS) Left team
Will Cox- (HS) Left team due to injuries
Trevor Fitts- (HS) SEC pitcher
Tyler Fullerton- (HS) Transferred out
Jonathan Holder- (HS) Cult hero.
Jacob Lindgren- (HS) Drafted by Cubs out of HS, drafted by Yankees in second round. All-SEC type player
Bret Marks- (HS) Transferred out and now at Tennessee
Trey Porter- (JUCO) Solid player who had eye issues
Mitch Slauter- (JUCO) SEC starter
Brandon Woodruff- (HS) Under Armour AA, drafted by Rangers out of HS, drafted by Brewers, battled injuries at MSU
Nick Flair- (HS) Drafted by Pirates out of HS, transferred out to JUCO.

Totals: HS- 10, JUCO- 3, 0 lost to MLB. So, the most successful players in this group again are the high school players. And that's with some solid JUCO's. This is more like what a class should look like from a ratio standpoint.

2010

Garrett Pitts- (HS) Transferred out
Adam Frazier- (HS) All-SEC player, now in Pirates system
Taylor Stark- (HS) Drafted by Nationals out of HS, transferred out to Delta State. (I think he got drafted after being there too? Not sure)
Evan Mitchell- (HS) SEC spot starter, drafted by Reds
CT Bradford- (HS) Drafted by Indians out of HS, SEC starter
Demarcus Henderson- (HS) Drafted by Astros out of HS, SEC starter
Wes Rea- (HS) SEC starter
Victor Diaz- (HS) Transferred out
Brett Bozeman- (JUCO) left team
Ross Mitchell- (HS) All-American, solid SEC pitcher
Brayden Jones- (HS) Left team
Daryl Norris- (HS) Drafted out of HS, drafted by Tigers. SEC starter
Tim Statz- (JUCO) Left due to hip injury
Cody Abraham- (HS)- Transferred out
David Bishop- (JUCO) WHO???
Luis Pollorena- (JUCO) Quality SEC player, signed with Rangers after college
Andrew Busby- (JUCO) Transferred out
Hunter Renfroe- (HS) All-American type player, Padres first round pick
Corey Dickerson- (JUCO) Signed with Rockies.

Totals: 13 HS, 5 JUCO, and 1 lost to MLB who was a JUCO. The first thing I want people to notice is that this is one of the main classes that got us to Omaha. Notice the ratio of HS to JUCO. Also of note, only 1 of the JUCO's really panned out for us in this class.

MY POINT IS- we have shifted away from high school prospects and have been going to the JUCO well too much. I think I have demonstrated that the overall upside for high school players is higher in general than JUCO players, although there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. Going with too many JUCO's has hurt our overall talent and we need to go back to bringing in and developing high school prospects more except in exceptional cases.

[Smitty]

I don't think anyone disagrees with the fact that obviously HS good players are preferred to JUCO's. I also don't want to go rack up mediocre JUCO types (Spruill, Waddell, etc) BUT those who show excellence at that level can and should be brought in to go along with a talented freshman core. They provide more immediate depth and already know the ropes a little.

You telling me you wouldn't want Paul Young? Heck, Smith, Holland, Vickerson, Pirtle, Detz, Slauter, Pollo, Vickerson, Parks?

11-12 HS 4-5 JUCO each class. SOLID JUCO players. What ticks me off are the redshirts. You redshirt in baseball and you just aren't that good IMO. Where's Gordon? Wasting away.

But nothing will matter if we can't coach em up when they get here. Which means JUCO might be even better for Cohen Mingione so there's less time for them to mold passive approaches.

[MsStateBaseball]

You'll start seeing less juco now. The response from 2013 was tremendous so we got a big 2015 HS class. Problem now is not winning.

The 2016 class looks to be small prob more juco than they want.

[Irondawg]

Let's all not forget that the 2013 class was ranked top 10 in the nation by several publications

[Drugdog]

Does it really matter what size our classes are or how they are ranked? No. Until Cohen changes it is all irrelevant.

[I seen it dawg]

Doesn't matter who plays for us

[RBritt]

From talking to a scout I know, don't look for Kale Breaux to make it to campus. He's also iffy on Riley, Marrero, and the two ole miss flippers.

[confucius say]

What the hell are y'all doing up at 4 in the morning posting this. Mad props, that's commitent.

[1bigdawg]

I believe one of the reasons for JUCOs id to balance the roster. When you have such limited schollys the allure of getting someone who is productive immediately is too hard to pass up. The problem is that we have signed too many that did not produce immediately.

[maroonmania]

Our true freshman pitchers under Cohen/Thompson have been really bad for the most part. Only exceptions I can think of is Chris Stratton was decent his true freshman year (before he imploded in his SO year) and Holder became a very effective closer by the latter part of his true freshman year. Ross Mitchell did pretty well also but I can't remember if he redshirted or not. All others have been really bad. Why is that? McCord is a very highly recruited guy and I'm really surprised that his FR year is going to end up a waste.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

I know it's impossible, but I'd love to see a similar breakdown for Florida, Vandy, A&M and South Carolina players. Wonder what their's would look like compared to ours.

I've learned over my 50+ years on this earth is if you keep doing the same thing you've been doing, you're going to get the same result. You young ones out there keep that one in the back of your minds. Goes for everything in life.

[maroonmania]

Guess I haven't been keeping up very well because I didn't realize Taylor Stafford had already transferred out. Was he cut or did he just decide our program wasn't for him?

[Todd4State]

I don't think anyone disagrees with the fact that obviously HS good players are preferred to JUCO's. I also don't want to go rack up mediocre JUCO types (Spruill, Waddell, etc) BUT those who show excellence at that level can and should be brought in to go along with a talented freshman core. They provide more immediate depth and already know the ropes a little.

You telling me you wouldn't want Paul Young? Heck, Smith, Holland, Vickerson, Pirtle, Detz, Slauter, Pollo, Vickerson, Parks?

11-12 HS 4-5 JUCO each class. SOLID JUCO players. What ticks me off are the redshirts. You redshirt in baseball and you just aren't that good IMO. Where's Gordon? Wasting away.

But nothing will matter if we can't coach em up when they get here. Which means JUCO might be even better for Cohen Mingione so there's less time for them to mold passive approaches.

Paul Young- good JUCO risk to take. He would be fine if he was healthy. We'll be lucky to get one year out of him.
Heck is a dime a dozen.
Smith- Jury is still out on him.
Holland- Started out at a D-I school, so he's a non-traditional player. Hasn't impressed me.
Vickerson- Hasn't impressed me.
Pirtle- Turned out well.
Detz- Didn't impress me, couldn't play defense.
Slauter- Should have been a back-up catcher. Couldn't hit.
Pollorena- Good player.
Vickerson- Started out at Florida State, non-traditional JUCO player.
Parks- Went JUCO because Polk overlooked him and it worked out for him to come to MSU. I consider him non-traditional because he normally would have been a HS recruit.


We need elite talent to get us where we want to go. JUCO is the least likely place to find that. Look at the MLB draft for reference. Most of the players drafted are either from high school or college.

Passive approaches can sometimes be due to coaching- but it can also be due to a lack of talent.

[bulldogcountry1]

I don't have a problem with signing JUCOs. I just have a problem with them making up half our lineup. Sure, you might find a Pirtle every once in a while, but you also end up with 6-8 Spruills. You just can't have sustained success with that formula because it means your HS development is poor.

[Todd4State]

From talking to a scout I know, don't look for Kale Breaux to make it to campus. He's also iffy on Riley, Marrero, and the two ole miss flippers.

If they don't come that would be bad. At the same time, we have to take some risks on players like that and hope a few of them (or more) show up. I think it says a lot that scouts like our recruits- and the one you talked to didn't even mention Pickett, Small, Padgett or Ford.

It takes players like that to get to where we want to go.

[Todd4State]

Our true freshman pitchers under Cohen/Thompson have been really bad for the most part. Only exceptions I can think of is Chris Stratton was decent his true freshman year (before he imploded in his SO year) and Holder became a very effective closer by the latter part of his true freshman year. Ross Mitchell did pretty well also but I can't remember if he redshirted or not. All others have been really bad. Why is that? McCord is a very highly recruited guy and I'm really surprised that his FR year is going to end up a waste.

It's a big jump from HS to the SEC even for elite pitchers. In high school you can pump in a 92 MPH fastball and have a decent curve and you will intimidate hitters. College hitters will eliminate pitches and sit on the one that the guy can throw for a strike.

It's not the norm for a freshman to come in and dominate as a freshman. It does happen- but it's not normal. The scary thing is we need some freshmen to step in immediately next year and fill out the bullpen. The good news is we have Tatum, Sexton, Hudson, and Preston. Plus, I expect Paul Young to be 100% by next year. Zac Houston has good talent as well. There are definitely some question marks in that group, but if a couple of freshmen step up like Ford, Padgett, Fenter, or Pilkington we should be better. Levi Mintz has looked good as well.

[bulldogcountry1]

I know it's impossible, but I'd love to see a similar breakdown for Florida, Vandy, A&M and South Carolina players. Wonder what their's would look like compared to ours.

I've learned over my 50+ years on this earth is if you keep doing the same thing you've been doing, you're going to get the same result. You young ones out there keep that one in the back of your minds. Goes for everything in life.

Just doing a quick glance at a few rosters to count transfers:

MSU : 13
USC : 8
A&M : 8
LSU : 6
UF : I looked, but their roster makes it hard to tell what are HSs and what are Colleges.

[Todd4State]

I don't have a problem with signing JUCOs. I just have a problem with them making up half our lineup. Sure, you might find a Pirtle every once in a while, but you also end up with 6-8 Spruills. You just can't have sustained success with that formula because it means your HS development is poor.

I absolutely agree with you on this. The thing about HS development though- it's hard to get high school guys in when all of the spots are taken by JUCO's!

Let's look at our HS guys on the team and compare them to the JUCO guys:

Collins- has progressed even though he has been out with an injury for much of the year.
Gridley- Freshman so nothing to compare to as far as progress.
Humphreys- Much better than last year.
Robson- Much better than when he came on as a freshman
Cody Brown- Better
Rea- Some would say he is worse, and in some ways he is, but his plate discipline is a lot better.

So, if we take out Gridley simply because he is a freshman and he is just now getting his baseline, that's about an 80% success rate in overall improvement. Compare that to the JUCO guys who were supposed to be immediate impact guys.

[Todd4State]

Just doing a quick glance at a few rosters to count transfers:

MSU : 13
USC : 8
A&M : 8
LSU : 6
UF : I looked, but their roster makes it hard to tell what are HSs and what are Colleges.

Thanks for that. I initially counted 15 for us, but then realized I was counting Cole Barlow, which should bring our total to 14. I'm not sure which one of us is off, but it's at least 13.

I think 6-8 is a more reasonable number. That's a couple of catchers, a couple of drop down arm angle guys, and then maybe 2-4 high end risks like a Paul Young.

[RBritt]

Pickett is a given draft risk. That's a no brainier. Maybe we do some Vandy Shiite to keep all of our guys.