I'm saying no. But against my gut.

Reasons:

They still play in the toughest conference in the country and that gives them more opportunity to slip up at the wrong time.
They graduated some key leadership that I think will be tough to replace. I'm not talking talent.
The a&m game is trap and the LSU game is trap.
No matter how talented you are, luck plays a part.
The national media would LOVE to see someone knock them off. LSU and A&M have the ability. Open dates before those games aren't nearly an advantage unless they are used to heal an injury.
Hunger vs entitlement. Bama has every reason to feel entitled to win it all again and there is plenty of empirical reasons to justify it. But hunger is a driving force that they may lack because of feeling entitled.

That said, it's like betting against Tiger......it might be a good bet, but the guy is unmistakably the most talented golfer ever.