Potetial Manny Diaz Hire Terrifies Me

[BeastMan]

With the interview of Manny Diaz coming Monday, I have to admit that I am less than thrilled with the chance that he is the new DC. Should he get the job, I'll put on my best MSU alum/supporter face and get behind him 100%. That said, I want to address my issues with Diaz.

I posted this stat a while back but I wanted to post again. Manny Diaz stat: in 7 years as a DC (2 at MTSU, 1 at MSU, 3 at TX, and 1 LaTech) he has had 1 top-30 scoring defense. That was 2010 MSU where he was 21st with 9 future NFL players. Now we can cherry pick several stats that would seemingly point to him having a good defense but I point to scoring 100% of the time. 1 top-30 scoring defense in 7 years just doesn't point to a great DC.

Now many folks will counter that you have to compare his mid-major jobs to other mid-major jobs but that is cherry picking stats to support an argument. No better example than David Gibbs the DC (and current interim HC) at Houston. He was hired after a 2012 unit that gave up 36 ppg and was 110th in the nation in scoring. He immediately drops them to 21.8 ppg (20th nationally) in 2013 and 20.6 ppg (15th nationally) in 2014. Coaching at a mid-major with a historically awful defense didn't stop Gibbs from immediately throwing up 2 scoring units better than Diaz has ever fielded in his career.

Now on to what specifically bothers me with the potential Diaz hire. Mullen said when he was first hired that he was very difficult to prepare for. Stylistically, he blitzes a ton regardless of down or distance. It's a high risk, high reward style. In my opinion, what Diaz needs is what Joe Lee Dun needed for his style to be successful: an elite secondary.

When you look at Manny's best defense in his career, 2010 MSU, he had a 4-year starter at safety in Charles Mitchell who went on to get drafted by the Falcons. You had an NFL talent at the other safety in Nickoe Whitley who would have been in the NFL if it hadn't been for the achilles and knee injuries he suffered in my opinion. You also had future draft pick Jon Banks at corner being joined by Corey Broomfield. Before you discount Broomfield and Banks for being sophomores, keep in mind that they started as freshmen and combined for 10 INTs that year. I don't think there is any question that this was the most talented and experienced secondary under Mullen and rivals the talent of the elite Joe Lee Dunn units.

Then we have to go look at how that unit played that year. They were dead last in the SEC in total passing defense. They were 2nd best in passing completion against at only 52%. What that points to is that they gave up some big plays. MSU gave up 128 passing plays of 10 or more yards which was 106th in the nation. When we go a bit higher to passing plays of 40 or more yards, MSU gave up 14 which was 108th in the country. This is with the best secondary talent and experience Mullen has ever had. I don't say this to condemn that year's performance because points against is all that matters and 21.8 is acceptable. It's to illustrate that even with that level of talent, they were still susceptible to big passing plays.

When you look at what Collins did this yea only giving up 21.7 ppg (21st in the nation) with the sub-par safety play, it was awesome. His passing defense numbers almost mirror those of Diaz's 2010 unit but the talent in the secondary, safety especially, isn't even close. Where Collins really showed up and helped his scoring numbers was where he could mask the secondary, in the redzone. He had the #1 redzone defense in not only the SEC, but also the nation. Compare that to Diaz's 2010 unit which was 8th in the SEC and 65th nationally. Those redzone scoring numbers vs the talent/experience gap tell a story to me.

Going forward you have to look at what will be the next DCs biggest task on the MSU defense. That is without a doubt secondary and more specifically, safety. Cox was an SEC talent but not an SEC brain. Market is an all-sec brain but not physical talent. When they both went down, so did the team's play. It's hard to blame Hughes because he was coming off a achilles injury and that's what Markey will be coming off next year. We have to base our guaranteed safety play floor with what Collins ended the season with and that is downright terrifying, especially with a reckless blitzer like Diaz.

MSU had enough trouble defending big plays in the pass this year and that was with Collins playing back in coverage a lot. Can you imagine the results if these guys are in 0,1, or 2-deep man while blitzing the rest of the house? The good news is that I think MSU's safety talent will be much better with Brandon Bryant, Mark McLaurin, and Jamal Peters. Those guys are legit. I just don't know if it's next year. Assuming Dak returns, our window to compete is 1 more year before having to build back up.

At the end of the day, defensive football is 100% about scoring. It's not about TFLs, sacks, or some weird mayhem stat formula. Manny Diaz has never fielded a defense finished better that 21st and that was with 9 future NFL guys either starting or coming off the bench. Outside of that 1 year, his next best finish was 33rd in scoring defense (first year at TX) and everything else wasn't top 50. I know his style can work with the right conditions but I'm not sure the conditions are ideal for him at MSU in 2015.

****This is loosely related but I think this needs to be the biggest consideration on defense, especially in Manny is hired. Mike Detellier said on Out Of Bounds to compete for championships you have to be an elite developer at 2 positions: QB and DL. I have to agree. I love Mullen as a QB developer. The question is at DL. Mike D talked about how Coach O is an elite DL developer. I think that Mullen really needs to take a close look at Turner. If he decides that he is an elite DL developer, leave him be. If he's not, bring in someone who is. I think Coach O could be that guy but if Mullen's goes with Manny, I'd support exploring all options and new blood could be a good thing.****

[engie]

With you 100%...

I think the main reason I find myself leaning toward supporting hiring Manny as DC is because the "Ogre is gonna get it" crowd scared the crap out of me...

[Dawg496]

I don't see why we can't have both. Just one or the other is a huge risk either way so I'd rather go for the proven commodity in at least one area: recruiting... Meaning O. But both would obviously be better than 1.

[thunderclap]

I don't give a shit who we hire as long as when the ball is snapped our Dline doesn't just stand up and lean on the OL like they're trying to push open a door that says pull.

[HoopsDawg]

I enjoyed reading your post but scoring defense isn't the end all be all stat. Scoring defense can be a result of your offense. Temple was 4th in the country this year in scoring D. LSU was 5th. Does LSU have the 5th best D in the country? Heck no, just pop in the AU, MSU and ND games for proof. Stanford was 2nd. Those 3 teams are all run oriented, ball control offenses meaning less possessions and less scoring. Another factor is your competition and their style of play. Our defense was 23rd in the nation, but a lot of that was a reflection of the 6 games we played against horrible opponents such as Vandy, UT Martin, and USA. In 2010, we played some great offenses.

I can't come up with the 9 NFL players. I count 7. Our starting D as I remember it was:

DE: Sean Ferguson
DT: Boyd, NFL
DT: Cox, NFL
DE: McPhee, NFL

OLB: Wright, NFL
MLB: White, NFL
OLB: Gattling

CB: Banks, NFL
CB: Broomfield
S: Whitley
S: Mitchell, NFL

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Just to play Devils advocate. Yes his best scoring defense was here at MSU but outside 1 year at Texas his scoring defense has hovered close to the same avg. also he's improved the previous years scoring defense every year but 1. Just something else to think about.

2009 Middle TN 23.0ppg 1.9ppg improvement
2010 MSU 19.9ppg 6.9ppg improvement
2011 Texas 22.2 ppg 1.5ppg improvement
2012 Texas 29.9ppg 7.0ppg more
2014 La Tech 25.2ppg 1.1ppg improvement

[BeastMan]

I don't give a shit who we hire as long as when the ball is snapped our Dline doesn't just stand up and lean on the OL like they're trying to push open a door that says pull.

I agree. That plays into what Mike D's theory. Nothing mask secondary short comings like a dominant DL. A good pass rush is huge

[BeastMan]

Just to play Devils advocate. Yes his best scoring defense was here at MSU but outside 1 year at Texas his scoring defense has hovered close to the same avg. also he's improved the previous years scoring defense every year but 1. Just something else to think about.

2009 Middle TN 23.0ppg 1.9ppg improvement
2010 MSU 19.9ppg 6.9ppg improvement
2011 Texas 22.2 ppg 1.5ppg improvement
2012 Texas 29.9ppg 7.0ppg more
2014 La Tech 25.2ppg 1.1ppg improvement

Good stuff. I'll retort with Chris Wilson's defense the next year gave up a few less points

[BeastMan]

Deonte Skinner and Cam Lawerence came off the bench. It wasn't 9 starters but 9 guys including guys who came off the bench. Not including guys that made camps and/or practice squads (ferguson or Wade Bonner for example).

[msstate7]

Good stuff. I'll retort with Chris Wilson's defense the next year gave up a few less points

So you think Chris wilson's defense was better than Diaz's?

[Political Hack]

I think he was incredibly impressive calling the D at LaTech this year. I couldn't say that any other year, with the occasional exception of 2010. I'm hoping he's a lot more mature and smarter, and CDM picked up on it.

That said, we don't have to offer LaTech's DC our DC job any more. We can offer him the LBs job and still increase his pay. I don't understand why we're scared to hire great, established coaches. Arkansas hit a damn HR with Shannon as LBs coach, then Florida does the same. USC hires Ogre for the DL. So on and so forth... I'm ready for us to start doing the same.

[Really Clark?]

So you think Chris wilson's defense was better than Diaz's?

Which year? Look up Wilson's first year stats. It's a pretty compelling case that that was the best defense we have had. Especially look at the Scoring Defense and compare the number of plays we had to defend. That was pretty impressive. His second year totally different story.

[BeastMan]

So you think Chris wilson's defense was better than Diaz's?

Was just making a point. He had great talent his first year too. Point is if Wilson got those results and according to our fans he sucked, we can't say in the next breath that Diaz was great.

[engie]

I think he was incredibly impressive calling the D at LaTech this year. I couldn't say that any other year, with the occasional exception of 2010. I'm hoping he's a lot more mature and smarter, and CDM picked up on it.

That said, we don't have to offer LaTech's DC our DC job any more. We can offer him the LBs job and still increase his pay. I don't understand why we're scared to hire great, established coaches. Arkansas hit a damn HR with Shannon as LBs coach, then Florida does the same. USC hires Ogre for the DL. So on and so forth... I'm ready for us to start doing the same.

Agreed with all of this...

And the flipside, why can't we hire Ogre -- and let him be the "DC" of the front 4 exactly how Patterson does with Bumpas? Then let Diaz call the back 7 separate.... Best of both worlds. Obviously you've got to be on the same page with some stuff setting up blitzes and whatnot, but it simplifies the job everyone has to do and also makes the defense even more unpredictable....

[engie]

Was just making a point. He had great talent his first year too. Point is if Wilson got those results and according to our fans he sucked, we can't say in the next breath that Diaz was great.

If Wilson had left after year 1, he would be remembered prettymuch identically to Diaz. We just know he sucked because he stuck around...

[engie]

Guys, to truly compare defenses, you've got to look beyond the basic stats. There are a number of advanced metrics out there that attempts to do this.
Adjustedstats and footballoutsiders do a great job of it...

[Really Clark?]

Agreed with all of this...

And the flipside, why can't we hire Ogre -- and let him be the "DC" of the front 4 exactly how Patterson does with Bumpas? Then let Diaz call the back 7 separate.... Best of both worlds. Obviously you've got to be on the same page with some stuff setting up blitzes and whatnot, but it simplifies the job everyone has to do and also makes the defense even more unpredictable....

Like the idea but seriously doubt you could convenience O to go along with this. Maybe not Diaz either. If rumors are true then to O the LSU DL job is on par with our DC position. Who's to say he won't do the same there.

[engie]

ADJUSTEDSTATS:
Louisiana Tech: current year, last year
Adjusted PPG: 42, 106
Adjusted Points per play: 35, 103
Adjusted Points per possession: 27, 107
Adjusted YPG: 31, 112
Adjusted Yards per play: 21, 98
Adjusted Yards per possession: 19, 130
That's impressive as hell.

MSU: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009
Adjusted PPG: 8, 17, 26, 16, 6, 33
Adjusted PPPl: 5, 26, 26, 7, 5, 41
Adjusted PPP: 6, 14, 33, 26, 12, 34
Adjusted YPG: 55, 13, 42, 35, 10, 28
Adjusted YPPl: 50, 22, 37, 14, 10, 44
Adjusted YPP: 22, 9, 49, 31, 17, 33
By adjusted stats, Diaz's D here was #1 aPPG, #1t aPPPlay, #2 aPPPoss, #1aYPG, #1aYPPlay, #2aYPPoss

10Texas(Muschamp): 37, 46, 31, 6, 12, 4
11Texas(Diaz): 7, 15, 7, 2, 5, 3
12Texas(Diaz): 34, 44, 48, 31, 48, 47
Fired after 2 games in 2013.

[Really Clark?]

Guys, to truly compare defenses, you've got to look beyond the basic stats. There are a number of advanced metrics out there that attempts to do this.
Adjustedstats and footballoutsiders do a great job of it...

That's very true and in certain stats this year was actually better than last year and the second best of Mullen's tenure. The rush defense we had under Diaz was so good that it probably gets the edge but that first year of Wilson considering the shear number of plays he had go against. Heck of a job.

[engie]

Like the idea but seriously doubt you could convenience O to go along with this. Maybe not Diaz either. If rumors are true then to O the LSU DL job is on par with our DC position. Who's to say he won't do the same there.

My idea was strictly upon the basis of us acting like a big boy -- something I have no real reason to expect us to do at this point...