Don't look now Braves fans

[Todd4State]

If Mark McGwire could steal a base he'd score less runs because he would have to be in a shape where he couldn't do the things that actually score runs like drop bombs into Big Mac land.

Yeah- Yasiel Puig agrees that you have to be a big guy to run. If McGwire could run like Puig, he would have been even more dangerous because a lot of the time they walked him with no one on base, he would have ended up on second, which means that they would have been more likely to pitch to him.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Yeah bc you can only do one or the other. Just ask mike trout...

I like looking at the norms not exceptions. Top 10 in HR avg 3.3 SB.. Leader Jose Abreu has 0..... Top ten in SB avg 3.0 HR.. Leader Dee Gordon has 2 HR.

[msstate7]

IMO, offense is down because there are too many managers like Fredi Gonzalez that do not pay attention to the numbers and value things like BA, stolen bases, and RBI over OBP, BABIP, and ISO.

The top two run scoring teams in baseball are Oakland and Colorado. They are also two of the top three teams in baseball relative to OBP. They are middle of the pack in stolen bases.

Toronto 4th -- leadoff Reyes .312 obp
Detroit 6th -- leadoff Jackson .307 obp

[Todd4State]

I'd rather have that guy at 2nd because he hit a double, not because I expect him to steal a base at greater than 75% success rate.

Of course you would. I bet you would rather him hit a home run. But what if he's only on first base? You just want him to stay there assuming he has the ability to steal a base? Why not turn that single into a double?

[Todd4State]

Moneyball is not the reason offense is down. If anything, moneyball is the reason teams like Oakland and Colorado score a lot of runs.

I don't think it is in and of itself is THE reason- but I do think that it is a factor. I think Colorado would score a lot of runs no matter what they do.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Yeah- Yasiel Puig agrees that you have to be a big guy to run. If McGwire could run like Puig, he would have been even more dangerous because a lot of the time they walked him with no one on base, he would have ended up on second, which means that they would have been more likely to pitch to him.

Yasiel Puig isn't allowed to steal anymore because he has a success rate of 50%. In SEC play in 2012 I believe we were 7-21 in stolen bases. That was very bad for our offense along with the 26 man on 1st, no out bunts.

[msstate7]

It is broken though. La Stella was moved to the lead off spot after teams had adjusted to him. He slumped, and then he adjusted to what they were doing. Where you hit in the line up has no effect on your performance, but where you hit each player in the line up does have an effect on team performance. If La Stella has a .400 OBP hitting 7th, there is no reason to think he would not have the same leading off if he was given the opportunity to do that on a regular basis.

When your lead off guy has a .275 OBP, things are broke.

I'm sure every team would love to have a "broken" lineup if it led to 9 game winning streak and 11-1 after making this dumb decision

[KB21]

I understand the risk reward, but you're also not always going to hit a double. So IF you have a guy on first that has speed, you just want him to stay there? So for the "thinking" I ask, why is having speed a bad thing? And if you have it, why not use it? Because you might get thrown out?

That extra dimension to your game makes you a better and more valuable player.

No one is saying that speed is a bad thing. You don't substitute speed for on base ability though.

Would you rather have Billy Hamilton or Matt Carpenter leading off for the Cardinals?

[Pioneer Dawg]

Toronto 4th -- leadoff Reyes .312 obp
Detroit 6th -- leadoff Jackson .307 obp

Cardinals Matt Carpenter
Rangers Shin Soo Choo
Athletics - often their catcher John Jaso

The ELITE base stealers that can get on ARE a weapon. That's the point. You have to use the numbers to determine which one is the most beneficial. USE THE NUMBERS. OBP, MATCHUPS, SB% all factor into a formula.

A .350 guy with 4 SB isn't as valuable as a .345 guy with 25 SB. Teams like Oakland, Houston, Boston, etc. employ people MUCH smarter than any of us to find that formula. It's ALL about the numbers on this.

[Todd4State]

IMO, offense is down because there are too many managers like Fredi Gonzalez that do not pay attention to the numbers and value things like BA, stolen bases, and RBI over OBP, BABIP, and ISO.

The top two run scoring teams in baseball are Oakland and Colorado. They are also two of the top three teams in baseball relative to OBP. They are middle of the pack in stolen bases.

The Dodgers have the most stolen bases in baseball and their OBP is right behind those two teams. at .330 A's and Rockies are at .331 and .332.

Or maybe the A's are just good? It's not like they are the only team doing Moneyball right now.

[Dawg61]

Top 15 in the MLB in runs scored have on average just 5.86 SB. Tulo the leader has 1 SB.... Lowest OBP of the group is Donaldson at .324 but he's no speed guy (3 SB). How can these guys be scoring all these runs???

Talk about skewing the numbers. Good gawd that's a crime what you just did. Tulo's 1 SB just made Dozier go from 15 actual steals to 8 when you add in Tulo and "average them" Of the top 50 run scores in MLB 21 of them are also in the top 50 in steals.

[Pioneer Dawg]

The Dodgers have the most stolen bases in baseball and their OBP is right behind those two teams. at .330 A's and Rockies are at .331 and .332.

Or maybe the A's are just good? It's not like they are the only team doing Moneyball right now.

The A's are the best team in baseball.

Reds have 2nd most stolen bases... 26th in OBP... 24th in runs..

[Pioneer Dawg]

Talk about skewing the numbers. Good gawd that's a crime what you just did. Tulo's 1 SB just made Dozier go from 15 actual steals to 8 when you add in Tulo and "average them" Of the top 50 run scores in MLB 21 of them are also in the top 50 in steals.

How many are top 50 in OBP

Make sure we have a good minimum plate appearances here. 3-4 with a .750 OBP and 1 run don't count.

[Todd4State]

No one is saying that speed is a bad thing. You don't substitute speed for on base ability though.

Would you rather have Billy Hamilton or Matt Carpenter leading off for the Cardinals?

Well, it seems like that's what you are saying. Maybe I was thrown off by the "little value in a stolen base" discussion. At the very least it has been downplayed.

I really like Hamilton a lot- especially his upside. He's going to get better and better- and that includes his base running. I think having both Hamilton and Caprenter in the lineup would be potentially lethal.

[msstate7]

The A's are the best team in baseball.

Reds have 2nd most stolen bases... 26th in OBP... 24th in runs..

Milwaukee has 2nd best record. They're 5th in sb's. They're 15th in obp

[Dawg61]

I like looking at the norms not exceptions. Top 10 in HR avg 3.3 SB.. Leader Jose Abreu has 0..... Top ten in SB avg 3.0 HR.. Leader Dee Gordon has 2 HR.

Are you seriously adding up the total SB for the ten HR leaders and dividing it by 10 and then telling us the avg SB for each guy? Haha

[Todd4State]

Yasiel Puig isn't allowed to steal anymore because he has a success rate of 50%. In SEC play in 2012 I believe we were 7-21 in stolen bases. That was very bad for our offense along with the 26 man on 1st, no out bunts.

I would hope that Mark McGwire wouldn't be an idiot on he bases like Puig, who is out of control at times.

Yeah, it sucked winning the SEC Tournament that year.

[Todd4State]

Milwaukee has 2nd best record. They're 5th in sb's. They're 15th in obp

So, in other words, there's very little correlation to SB's, OBP, and wins?

[Pioneer Dawg]

Milwaukee has 2nd best record. They're 5th in sb's. They're 15th in obp

You do play defense and pitch as well

We can do this shit all day. Runs scored as an INDIVIDUAL don't really matter a hill of beans to SB or lesser extent OBP because runs scored is factored by other people.

As a TEAM obviously OBP leads to more runs not SB. The formula is known to those in front offices. Elite SB guys can overcome value of higher OBP guys BUT slugging appears to drop very much as stolen base numbers go up. OBP guys hit 1st because of the boppers behind them. Fast guys hit in front of singles hitters because they can steal and score on a single. Fast guys that also get on base good get to have their cake and eat it too.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Are you seriously adding up the total SB for the ten HR leaders and dividing it by 10 and then telling us the avg SB for each guy? Haha

Uhh yeah... For the elite in each group. Not much crossover. I could be a dunce and find ONE example against the rule but that would be unscientific.