Don't look now Braves fans

[Dawg61]

2004 ALCS GAME 4

Most famous stolen base I can remember. 9th inning Kevin Millar (very slow.. 7 career SB.. .383 OBP) leads off the inning with a BB. Dave Roberts (very fast..243 career SB.. .337 OBP) pinch runs and steals 2nd leading the Red Sox on a historic comeback. You would have let Roberts lead the inning off 61?

I'm not talking about guys that are only on rosters to be pinch runners. Obviously I'm talking about two players that are both good enough to be starters. You are twisting the pinch runner comment in your head. The point I am trying to make and you agreed with yourself is that once the two players are on first base the speed player becomes more valuable than the slow player. I brought up the PR because it proves that the manager values speed. To not value speed is just sabermetrics being ruhhhhtarded again.

[Todd4State]

Speed has very little to do with that though. Speed does not equal good base running. Jordan Schafer has great speed, but he's a horrible base runner.

The thing with BJ is that he is actually a very good base runner. He just isn't on base enough to utilize that tool.

That's what I said in the second paragraph. There's a fundamental break down of base running at all levels of baseball- and it hurts offense. Among other things- like guys striking out too much and taking pitches instead of being aggressive.

[Todd4State]

Folks when I talk about a lack of logic when opposing me in these debates this is what I'm referring to.

Still waiting on Daniel Garner to stop striking out because you said so.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Does that percentage factor in being picked off? Btw BJ Upton and his shit OBP has 41 Runs scored and La'Stella and his .360 OBP has 11 runs scored. Billy Hamilton 41 Runs and 34 SB, Todd Frazier 53 Runs and 13 SB, La Stella 11 Runs (9 before today) and 2 SB. And yes we all know La'Stella has a lot less ABs. Before today he only had 9 runs scored. 9!!

Top 15 in the MLB in runs scored have on average just 5.86 SB. Tulo the leader has 1 SB.... Lowest OBP of the group is Donaldson at .324 but he's no speed guy (3 SB). How can these guys be scoring all these runs???

[Todd4State]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-value

Overall, there is very little value to the stolen base, as there is more risk that you run into an out. There is clearly not as much value in a stolen base as there is in getting on base in the first place.

Here's my question- is that because there is actually very little value in a stolen base or is it because there is more risk because players aren't as good at it as they should be? And I can't load the article for some reason, but I'm guessing that's the gist of it and I have read things similar.

I think studies like that hurt offense because players/people read it and they think, "well I'm not going to do that then" and it just makes it more difficult to score runs because if you can steal bases and use your speed on the bases well in all aspects of base running, you can become a weapon.

Because you can't tell me that you would rather have a guy on first and no one out than a guy on second and no one out.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Still waiting on Daniel Garner to stop striking out because you said so.

He is dumbass. He's at his normal K rate just like I said.

[War Machine Dawg]

On MLB Network, they were talking about the hitting/offense crisis in baseball right now, and one of the things that they talked about was speed as a way to create more runs/offense. Very interesting discussion. They talked about how speed can change the momentum of a game and it changes the way a pitcher attacks the hitter and pitches. All of the ex-MLB players agreed on this.

If you are a good baserunner, as good baserunning doesn't necessarily mean the fastest, and you can steal bases for your team, you can increase the chances of scoring for your team. A runner on second with no one out has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first with no one out. If you want stats that back it up, look at the run expectancy tables. If you have a guy that can take an extra base on a single and get to third from first rather than just to second, you open up a lot more scoring options as well because then wild pitches, balks, and if there are less than two outs a sac fly comes into play.

If they want offensive production, legalize and regulate HGH usage. It's a natural human hormone, unlike steroids. I've got no problem with players using it. It's no coincidence that offensive numbers have taken a steep dive as steroid testing has become more strict. Six years ago, you couldn't see the field as a .240 hitter. Now, .240 hitters aren't a huge drain on the offense. Plus, you've got all these feast or famine HR hitters in baseball now who either rip it or K. There's no in-between anymore, no one who chokes up and/or shortens their swing with a 2 strike count. The offensive approach has really changed in the last 15-20 years.

I've been advocating a return to speedy contact hitters to help out, too. I thought it was common sense, now that most of the steroid usage has been stopped, that speed and the ability to manufacture runs would be at a premium. But apparently scouts are still trying to get 7-9 Adam Dunns in the lineup.

[Todd4State]

Top 15 in the MLB in runs scored have on average just 5.86 SB. Tulo the leader has 1 SB.... Lowest OBP of the group is Donaldson at .324 but he's no speed guy (3 SB). How can these guys be scoring all these runs???

Runs in MLB have declined six of the past seven years. Lack of speed is one reason why. Defensive shifts have hurt as well, as have taken steroids mostly out of the game. If those leaders could steal more bases, their runs scored would go up. Guaranteed.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Todd he argument isn't would you rather have a guy on 1st or 2nd with no outs. You simpletons really can't grasp this? I you are GUARANTEED to steal the base then yes that is the easy choice. For the thinking, we have to involve the risk reward of the chance of an out when stealing 2nd.

[Dawg61]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-value

Overall, there is very little value to the stolen base, as there is more risk that you run into an out. There is clearly not as much value in a stolen base as there is in getting on base in the first place.

Haha ok Brian Kenny

[KB21]

Does that percentage factor in being picked off? Btw BJ Upton and his shit OBP has 41 Runs scored and La'Stella and his .360 OBP has 11 runs scored. Billy Hamilton 41 Runs and 34 SB, Todd Frazier 53 Runs and 13 SB, La Stella 11 Runs (9 before today) and 2 SB. And yes we all know La'Stella has a lot less ABs. Before today he only had 9 runs scored. 9!!

And then we realize that Tommy La Stella has had Gerald Laird and the pitcher hitting behind him for the most part and not Freddie Freeman/Justin Upton/Evan Gattis.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Runs in MLB have declined six of the past seven years. Lack of speed is one reason why. Defensive shifts have hurt as well, as have taken steroids mostly out of the game. If those leaders could steal more bases, their runs scored would go up. Guaranteed.

If Mark McGwire could steal a base he'd score less runs because he would have to be in a shape where he couldn't do the things that actually score runs like drop bombs into Big Mac land.

[KB21]

Here's my question- is that because there is actually very little value in a stolen base or is it because there is more risk because players aren't as good at it as they should be? And I can't load the article for some reason, but I'm guessing that's the gist of it and I have read things similar.

I think studies like that hurt offense because players/people read it and they think, "well I'm not going to do that then" and it just makes it more difficult to score runs because if you can steal bases and use your speed on the bases well in all aspects of base running, you can become a weapon.

Because you can't tell me that you would rather have a guy on first and no one out than a guy on second and no one out.

I'd rather have that guy at 2nd because he hit a double, not because I expect him to steal a base at greater than 75% success rate.

[msstate7]

And then we realize that Tommy La Stella has had Gerald Laird and the pitcher hitting behind him for the most part and not Freddie Freeman/Justin Upton/Evan Gattis.

When lastella was at leadoff, what was his avg? I realize it was a very small sample, but he was terrible. Lastella has been very good hitting 7th though. Why change what's working? If bj flounders, I'd be in favor of giving lastella another shot. I wouldn't change a thing right now. No need to fix what isn't broken...

[msstate7]

If Mark McGwire could steal a base he'd score less runs because he would have to be in a shape where he couldn't do the things that actually score runs like drop bombs into Big Mac land.

Yeah bc you can only do one or the other. Just ask mike trout...

[Todd4State]

If they want offensive production, legalize and regulate HGH usage. It's a natural human hormone, unlike steroids. I've got no problem with players using it. It's no coincidence that offensive numbers have taken a steep dive as steroid testing has become more strict. Six years ago, you couldn't see the field as a .240 hitter. Now, .240 hitters aren't a huge drain on the offense. Plus, you've got all this feast or famine HR hitters in baseball now who either rip it or K. There's no in-between anymore, no one who chokes up and/or shortens their swing with a 2 strike count. The offensive approach has really changed in the last 15-20 years.

I've been advocating a return to speedy contact hitters to help out, too. I thought it was common sense now that most of the steroid usage has been stopped that speed and the ability to manufacture runs would be at a premium. But apparently scouts are still trying to get 7-9 Adam Dunns in the lineup.

I 100% agree with you on that. The pitching is better nowadays- you have more guys that are throwing harder and with more movement. And at the same time, the hitters have gotten worse from a fundamental standpoint. You see guys with a 1-2 count still trying to swing for the fences, you see these massive defensive shifts and guys who hit 20 home runs not even trying to go opposite field even though there is literally no one on one side of the field.

And I do think that this take and make the pitcher work all the time and not be aggressive approach- these pitchers are feasting on these hitters.

But part of it is because of Moneyball. This "bunting and stealing bases is bad" idea has gone on for awhile, but now the era has changed and the offense hasn't changed with it yet. And the same thing about working walks- that's Moneyball too.

The basic fundamentals aren't there for hitting or baserunning in general. Not very many guys even try to use the whole field- which would stop shifting, they're afraid to swing at the first pitch, they don't work on baserunning or bunting like they should and try to take advantage of speed.

[KB21]

IMO, offense is down because there are too many managers like Fredi Gonzalez that do not pay attention to the numbers and value things like BA, stolen bases, and RBI over OBP, BABIP, and ISO.

The top two run scoring teams in baseball are Oakland and Colorado. They are also two of the top three teams in baseball relative to OBP. They are middle of the pack in stolen bases.

[KB21]

When lastella was at leadoff, what was his avg? I realize it was a very small sample, but he was terrible. Lastella has been very good hitting 7th though. Why change what's working? If bj flounders, I'd be in favor of giving lastella another shot. I wouldn't change a thing right now. No need to fix what isn't broken...

It is broken though. La Stella was moved to the lead off spot after teams had adjusted to him. He slumped, and then he adjusted to what they were doing. Where you hit in the line up has no effect on your performance, but where you hit each player in the line up does have an effect on team performance. If La Stella has a .400 OBP hitting 7th, there is no reason to think he would not have the same leading off if he was given the opportunity to do that on a regular basis.

When your lead off guy has a .275 OBP, things are broke.

[Todd4State]

Todd he argument isn't would you rather have a guy on 1st or 2nd with no outs. You simpletons really can't grasp this? I you are GUARANTEED to steal the base then yes that is the easy choice. For the thinking, we have to involve the risk reward of the chance of an out when stealing 2nd.

I understand the risk reward, but you're also not always going to hit a double. So IF you have a guy on first that has speed, you just want him to stay there? So for the "thinking" I ask, why is having speed a bad thing? And if you have it, why not use it? Because you might get thrown out?

That extra dimension to your game makes you a better and more valuable player.

[KB21]

I 100% agree with you on that. The pitching is better nowadays- you have more guys that are throwing harder and with more movement. And at the same time, the hitters have gotten worse from a fundamental standpoint. You see guys with a 1-2 count still trying to swing for the fences, you see these massive defensive shifts and guys who hit 20 home runs not even trying to go opposite field even though there is literally no one on one side of the field.

And I do think that this take and make the pitcher work all the time and not be aggressive approach- these pitchers are feasting on these hitters.

But part of it is because of Moneyball. This "bunting and stealing bases is bad" idea has gone on for awhile, but now the era has changed and the offense hasn't changed with it yet. And the same thing about working walks- that's Moneyball too.

The basic fundamentals aren't there for hitting or baserunning in general. Not very many guys even try to use the whole field- which would stop shifting, they're afraid to swing at the first pitch, they don't work on baserunning or bunting like they should and try to take advantage of speed.

Moneyball is not the reason offense is down. If anything, moneyball is the reason teams like Oakland and Colorado score a lot of runs.