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Saturday Gambling Thread
Finally getting a gambling slate worthy of losing your bankroll. Got tons of "coinflip" games when it comes to moneyline (which objectively is better than betting on the spread). Here are my picks - feel free to argue with any / all. I was up way too early today to fly out of Salt Lake and have a connection in Denver.
Build State's Resume Group:
Southern Miss (+120) @ La Tech
ASU (+114) @ Baylor
USM showed last week they are upper half of the Fun Belt (and App showed they'll be bottom 5. I saw that Lindenwood score and thought USM winning was free money last week). They'll continue to roll and challenge for the conference championship. Glad we got them week 1 and not week 11. The Sun Devils aren't going to win pretty. They are zigging after the game has zagged for a while. Stud WR, 4 different runners capable of a 100 yd game at any time. One of those runners knows to throw to WR1 and his TEs too. Baylor has a shit run defense. I think Arizona State is better at running than Auburn and expect similar bullying as that game.
Tater's a hater group:
Tulane (+310) @ Ole Miss
Memphis (+195) vs. Arkansas
OU (-205) vs. Auburn
I think Tulane and Memphis are both top 25 teams and I love the value. Also I'm betting them every week as a parlay until they play each other or screw up. Ride the hot hand. Have a 50% profit boost sitting on my parlay of these two that bumped to +1100. Also **** Ole Miss. And **** Arkansas for not beating Ole Miss. Also I'm just not moved by the revenge game narrative. I've seen Jackson Arnold in Norman. His team lost a lot.
BIG bets:
Nebraska (+102) vs. Michigan
Texas Tech (+145) @ Utah
Illinois (+154) @ Indiana
Michigan's QB feels like he'll wilt on the road. Did vs. OU. Hunch pick here trusting in Y3 Rhule. I didn't like my week in Utah this week. Pizza sucked. Tortilla boys have played shit competition but have handled it insanely. And I believe in the Altenator from Stark + Ole Bert. I think Indiana is due for a regression. Better QB thrives here.
G6 (get it? it's a dig on the ACC and a commentary about how far you gotta fly to play a conference game)
TCU (-250) vs. SMU
The Las Vegas Dan's (No Wendy's) (-162) @ Miami (OH)
UNT (-105) @ Army
NC State (+110) @ Duke
TCU has a top 10 QB and SMU has regressed. I think they win this rivalry game handily and don't hate laying the points. I'm #GamblingWithDan all year. Don't like the early kick, but I believe in khaki shorts. UNT might be the best G5 team. They've got the Cam Ward / John Mateer whisperer. Great test there. Army is getting inflated after beating KSU imo. And NC State has a kid that will start on a playoff team next year, be a first round pick, and probably be a heisman finalist. Hes the best QB you haven't watched. Knock on him is he's thin for his frame so I'm concerned for his health. However, NC State is what I call my Louisville pick this year. I find a team that regardless of matchup - I bet them till they lose because they are entertaining and have a soft winnable schedule. It doesn't feel like Duke is quite there but they did take positive momentum at the end of the Tulane loss.
The lotto ticket: I threw these 12 games + Iowa ML on a $5 to win $90k. If I'm right - I'll pay a lot of money for some biscuits and gravy next weekend.
The How is this even money parlay:
Cal (-500) @ San Diego State
UConn (-1350) vs. Ball State
USC (-700) vs. fakeMSU
Washington (-1450) vs. Wazzu
Mizz (-535) vs. SCar
State (-2100) vs. NIU
GT (-2800) vs. Temple
Altogether +102 odds.
Ok the answer is easy: Heavy favorites moneyline parlays are a suckers bet. But it's fun so **** it. Cal has an elite QB. Ball State is bottom 5 G5. Michigan State is bottom 5 B18. Wazzu is pathetic. SCar scares me a bit but Mizzou has looked soooooo good. If State loses I'll be mad about other things, not the parlay. GT was the topping to push it positive.
My top bet: ASU +114 @ Baylor. Think they're getting the lost to State treatment and will play angry this week and have 300+ rushing yards.
Win total watch:
Liberty U9.5 Wins (+105)
State O3.5 Wins (-160)
ND U10.5 Wins ✅
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Started off last night with Tulsa ML. Thanks Gundy. Got USM ML and point. Parlayed Miami and OM. And took Aubbie ML. And yes screw both Arky and the Tenn FG kicker went from making a really good run to a small positive run.
Last edited by parabrave; 09-20-2025 at 08:32 AM.
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Originally Posted by
parabrave
Started off last night with Tulsa ML. Thanks Gundy. Got USM ML and point. Parlayed Miami and OM. And took Aubbie ML. And yes screw both Arky and the Tenn FG kicker went from making a really good run to a small positive run.
I stayed away from Gundy because Tulsa is also awful. Felt greedy going New Mexico - Tulsa b2b. Oh well.
Yea. Arkansas / ND cost me a few parlays. But still small positive.
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Also on a whim took the Cuse over Clemson.
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i got 50k riding on state today to win. i took the over 3 1/2 for the season.
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Dam weather delay is going to help Clemson. Don't need that
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North Texas just decided to eat crayons here in the last 3 minutes.
Arky - Memphis the coinflip as promised.
Tech's defense still looks stout but finally gave up a real TD with starters in. But that is a scary team.
Dan was choking but Miami OH seemed to choke harder.
TCU finally started to pull away from SMU.
Also had UAB @ Tennessee o66.5. Can i get one more point and get that game off the screen lol.
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Great morning. Great great great morning. Need Tulane to keep pace and sneak a win. Playing flat so far.
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Wow I wonder if anyone took Purdue and the points. Was thinking about it but thought NO WAY does ND not cover.
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Originally Posted by
Tater
Great morning. Great great great morning. Need Tulane to keep pace and sneak a win. Playing flat so far.
Got OM and the points but hedged with Tulane and the ML just in case OM goes full stupid. Need the cuse to hang on,.
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Iowa/Tulsa winnahhhh
Iowa/Rutgers winnahhhh
Memphis/Over Tenn winnahhhh
Tenn- 34.5 losahhhhhh
Too-Lame +14.5 probable losahhhhhh
Under in our game
OU
and some others
Last edited by Coach34; 09-20-2025 at 04:01 PM.
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Retzlaff going full Arch Manning has let OM just run a high school offense and dominate. Tough.
On top of that watching us be full of ourselves - mid window hurts.
NC State actually might lead at half and that scares me.
OU is worse than I thought. Mateer having a bleh game.
Nebby hit a nice hail mary. Fluke plays abound in that game.
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Originally Posted by
Tater
Retzlaff going full Arch Manning has let OM just run a high school offense and dominate. Tough.
On top of that watching us be full of ourselves - mid window hurts.
NC State actually might lead at half and that scares me.
OU is worse than I thought. Mateer having a bleh game.
Nebby hit a nice hail mary. Fluke plays abound in that game.
Mateer about to see his Heisman hopes go out the door. Was looking for a sports book to see who had the bets for the Heisman and not one casino had it. I got a feeling Agitar will seal the deal next week agains us,
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Oh THANK YOU CUSE. That made my weekend right there.
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Tough mid window. USM and Miami wins keep me positive though.
"Once the game starts, it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, July 10th, 2010
"No one ever said it's gonna be easy." - Lebron, June 12th, 2011
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Originally Posted by
Tater
Tough mid window. USM and Miami wins keep me positive though.
Me also. Thanks for screwing things up Freeze. Didn't need that safety. Gave me a push. Got USC straight up.
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Originally Posted by
parabrave
Oh THANK YOU CUSE. That made my weekend right there.
Me too. It's good to see Clemson lose.
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Originally Posted by
parabrave
Oh THANK YOU CUSE. That made my weekend right there.
OU turned my day around. Last leg of 4 parlays
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Originally Posted by
99jc
i got 50k riding on state today to win. i took the over 3 1/2 for the season.
That is putting your nuts on the table right there!
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Arkansas and Tulane screwed me early.
We won so that helped.
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