Our path to a Regional...

[Coach34]

Manieri was a terrible hire and SC deserves what they get. He looks 75 years old out there. They went to Regionals 3/4 years now they wont win 10 SEC games

[Pancho]

guess they didn't know an up and comer

[EdwardDrayton]

Manieri was a terrible hire and SC deserves what they get. He looks 75 years old out there. They went to Regionals 3/4 years now they wont win 10 SEC games

I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

[Quaoarsking]

UPDATE: We gave ourselves some breathing room this weekend. We can either miss one of these benchmarks and get to 13-17 and have a good shot to get in, or hit all of the rest and get to 14-16 and should be pretty safe.

I still think we're less than 50-50 to make it (remember we're still 5-10 and need to go at least 8-7 over the last 15, maybe 9-6), but we can at least talk about the realistic possibility now.

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

• South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3 ✅✅
• @ Alabama - maybe we get 1 ✅✅
• Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
• @ Auburn - again maybe 1
• Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
• Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
• @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

[parabrave]

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

• South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
• @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
• Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
• @ Auburn - again maybe 1
• Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
• Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
• @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

Go ahead and Pin this up top.

[Coach34]

RPI up to 35. Only given up 4 hits the last 2 Sundays combined.

Team starting to come together

[maroonmania]

RPI up to 35. Only given up 4 hits the last 2 Sundays combined.

Team starting to come together

Pitching staff looking much better. Parker and crew gave us every chance in the world to sweep this weekend.

[Coach34]

Pitching staff looking much better. Parker and crew gave us every chance in the world to sweep this weekend.

Yep. Looks like we have figured things out. Got to get more consistent AB's. Got to get Trout out of the 6 hole to keep from killing innings

[Dawgface]

Well if they’re going to turn it around do it in a big way. Would hate to see barely getting into a regional and as a result keeping bucket man.

[parabrave]

The real Q exposed.

https://youtu.be/wNonI1fksQw?t=13

Q I didn't know your name was Vicky Valencourt and you are the devil.

[EdwardDrayton]

Four more series wins??!!?? I want to believe buuuuut .............

[confucius say]

We close with the worst sec team this century. So that helps. And 3 of next 4 series are at home.
3-3 vs FLA and at Auburn
3-3 vs KY and vs Mississippi
3-0 at Mizzou
14-16.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

13-17 scares. If we had beaten Troy, won 2 of 3 in the Houston Astros tourney, and replaced Missouri on the schedule with Tennessee or Arkansas, then 13-17 definitely gives you an RPI high enough to make a regional. But with our weaker SEC schedule, and our nonconference losses, I think 14-16 is necessary. And I think 14-16 or 15-15 is definitely attainable.

[Coach34]

13-17 would be disappointing but it would depend who we lost to and who we beat. Dont forget the SEC Tourney could be a boost depending on Match-ups. Our conference RPI is ridiculous now just like basketball because of adding OU and Texas. The SEC is going to get 12 teams in the Tourney at worst. SC and Mizzou are the only teams out at this point

[CaptainObvious]

I think we need to take 3 out of 4 from the black bears! And win at last one tourney game in Hoover single elimination tourney. That is wild in itself as most likely it will affect attendance by any team that doesn't need the SEC tourney and any team at the bottom of the tourney pairings. Who is gonna go spend that money to watch your team play one game except the close teams like Auburn, Vandy, Bama and State. No top 10 teams will need a win in Hoover so their fans probably will not travel.

[Quaoarsking]

Thinking back to basketball, nobody worse than 8-10 in the conference had ever gotten an at-large bid to the Tournament, but this year the SEC was so strong and the resumes so good that 2 teams got in at 6-12.

In baseball, no one has ever gotten in at worse than 13-17 (in a 30-game season - a few times a team has gotten in at 12-17). But the 16-team SEC is stronger than ever, so maybe teams with worse records could get in. If we do end up with only 11 or 12 wins and sneak into the Tournament anyway, I would call that a complete failure of a season. Honestly, it's a failure unless we end up with a winning record (16-14 or better), and that will take us winning at least 11 of the last 15.

[Coach34]

Thinking back to basketball, nobody worse than 8-10 in the conference had ever gotten an at-large bid to the Tournament, but this year the SEC was so strong and the resumes so good that 2 teams got in at 6-12.

In baseball, no one has ever gotten in at worse than 13-17 (in a 30-game season - a few times a team has gotten in at 12-17). But the 16-team SEC is stronger than ever, so maybe teams with worse records could get in. If we do end up with only 11 or 12 wins and sneak into the Tournament anyway, I would call that a complete failure of a season. Honestly, it's a failure unless we end up with a winning record (16-14 or better), and that will take us winning at least 11 of the last 15.

Only a failure if we dont make a Super. Could he keep his job with a Regional Final? Maybe. Getting in and making a Super means we've had a good season- finishing in the Final 16.

[BigDawg81]

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

[Coach34]

Warren Nolan has State finishing 16 - 14 in SEC play. I do not what there formula or analytics they use but I have a hard time seeing going 11 - 4 the rest of the way.

why? Our offensive and pitching stats are Top 6 of the SEC

[Pancho]

Well if they’re going to turn it around do it in a big way. Would hate to see barely getting into a regional and as a result keeping bucket man.

Lemo does not sit on a bucket anymore. guess he hates that nickname