Braves opening day

[Dawg61]

wut?

I think the Nats are overrated and a surprise team will battle the Braves so I'll go with the Phillies.

[dawgs]

I think the Nats are overrated and a surprise team will battle the Braves so I'll go with the Phillies.

3 "aces", one of the best SP4s in baseball, and a deep lineup doesn't do it for you?

[Dawg61]

3 "aces", one of the best SP4s in baseball, and a deep lineup doesn't do it for you?

Nope. Nats are overrated till they prove they aren't.

[dickiedawg]

Meh, the Braves are dead to me. They could all get scurvy and I wouldn't care. Not rooting for some Cobb County ball club.

They aren't moving until 2017... And this whole post is just ridiculous anyway.

[dawgs]

Nope. Nats are overrated till they prove they aren't.

in 2013 when all the luck went against them, they still finished 86-76. the previous season they won 98 games and played the eventual world series champs in an epic 5 game playoff series. only werth and laroche are on the wrong side of 30 out of the everyday lineup, and only fister and soriano are over 30 on the staff. and their best player is 21 years old. this is a young team with years of competing ahead of them.

it just seems awfully biased to write off a whole franchise as "overrated" because in the 1st 2 years they were reasonably expected to be good because they haven't won or made a world series yet. i mean, by that standard, how are you expecting the braves to do anything?

[Dawg61]

in 2013 when all the luck went against them, they still finished 86-76. the previous season they won 98 games and played the eventual world series champs in an epic 5 game playoff series. only werth and laroche are on the wrong side of 30 out of the everyday lineup, and only fister and soriano are over 30 on the staff. and their best player is 21 years old. this is a young team with years of competing ahead of them.

it just seems awfully biased to write off a whole franchise as "overrated" because in the 1st 2 years they were reasonably expected to be good because they haven't won or made a world series yet. i mean, by that standard, how are you expecting the braves to do anything?

Oh don't worry I think the Braves are overrated as well but the Braves almost always at least make the playoffs. The Nats have made it once in their franchise's history. Again till they actually do something they will stay under my overrated category.

[dawgs]

Oh don't worry I think the Braves are overrated as well but the Braves almost always at least make the playoffs. The Nats have made it once in their franchise's history. Again till they actually do something they will stay under my overrated category.

the nats have had basically have a 2 year window they were expected to be good. in the modern era of baseball you rebuild by bottoming out, stocking up draft picks, and then being patient while they progress and make smart trades. the nats homegrown core just really started to come together in 2012, the made some great moves (trading for gio gonzalez and ramos), only 1 questionable big free agent signing (werth), so as of right now you are looking at a 2 year window or realistically expecting anything worth a damn out of the nats. i don't care what they did 8 years ago before the current regime was running things and making smart moves.

if you look around baseball, the cubs, the twins, and the astros are all doing the same thing the nats did. the pirates are basically at a similar point the nats were at in 2012, though they don't have the offense the nats have. imo you are a fool if you call a team overrated because they sucked for years while they were purposefully trying to suck while rebuilding. and holding a team to a standard of making a world series within 2 years of having any expectations of success or calling them an overrated bust is a hell of a high standard.

you picked the braves to at least compete with the phillies (again, how do you peg them to compete for anything?) for the east, so you apparently don't think they are too overrated.

[War Machine Dawg]

Text from a buddy: "BJ Upton's ABs should be shown on a loop as capital punishment."

[Dawg61]

You must be a Nats fan. We can look back at our East predictions later. Mine are Braves, Phillies, Nats, Mets, Marlins. Yours are Nats, Nats, Nats, Nats, Braves. Good luck.

[EAVdog]

I can walk to the Ted from my house in East Atlanta. I will never fight traffic to go to the armpit of interstate hell that is 285/75. At least this way I don't have to care about MLB anymore.

[dawgs]

You must be a Nats fan. We can look back at our East predictions later. Mine are Braves, Phillies, Nats, Mets, Marlins. Yours are Nats, Nats, Nats, Nats, Braves. Good luck.

I just want to hear a well thought out reasoning. You haven't given one. If you are purely going on gut, then fine, just admit it.

[Dawg61]

I just want to hear a well thought out reasoning. You haven't given one. If you are purely going on gut, then fine, just admit it.

Ok. You won't like it but ok. In my opinion Desmond, Ramos, Harper, Zimmerman, Worth, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Span, LaRoche are all good players but I wouldn't classify a single one of them as ELITE players except maybe Harper. The Nats to me are hyped greater than they actually are. Maybe it's the Strasburg, Harper, Desmond effect. Something happened with the Nats once they called up Strasburg and then Harper. They suddenly became this team getting lots of attention and exposure and they didn't get it because they were kicking everyone's ass. The Nats fans got it confused and thought they were the new Yankees all of a sudden. One great regular season don't mean jack shit. They are mostly young players with exceptional talent that just haven't quite put it all together yet. That to me is the Nats. They look great on paper but fall short at the end.

[BoomBoom]

Like you said, it'll even out, bj upton and ugly can't be worse, but freeman and Chris Johnson, and maybe gattis, really couldn't be much better IMO. Unless gattis significantly improved him contact rates. And j-upton has kinda been an enigma his whole career, he could hit .260-20-70 or .300-40-120 and neither would shock me. I'll believe in heyward when he stays healthy and does it. On the surface you'd think Simmons has a good chance to improve, but his infield flyball rate is awful, unless he improves that, it's going to hold back his production.

Freeman actually has always had a high line drive rate, so his high BABIP is supportable. some regression probably, but not much. ditto Chris Johnson, though not if he tries to hit more dingers to up his value.

Gattis has a lot of room for improvement. he could certainly turn into a bust, it all depends on if he can make adjustments.

Simmons has overachieved at the plate relative to his history.

agree about J-Up. he could go either way.

[dawgs]

2 year window without making a World Series yet = complete bust. Ok got it.

And I think you are projecting this "think they are the Yankees" shit.

As for "elite" players, who are the braves and the phillies elite players?

[dawgs]

Freeman actually has always had a high line drive rate, so his high BABIP is supportable. some regression probably, but not much. ditto Chris Johnson, though not if he tries to hit more dingers to up his value.

Gattis has a lot of room for improvement. he could certainly turn into a bust, it all depends on if he can make adjustments.

Simmons has overachieved at the plate relative to his history.

agree about J-Up. he could go either way.

Freeman hits a lot of LDs, which is why his batted balls project a .340ish BABIP. And he doesn't have much speed, which makes his .371 BABIP and .443 BABIP w/ RISP last year even a bigger outlier. Bring that back to earth, like a still very good .340, and suddenly his counting stats are going to drop too. No one is suggesting he's a complete fluke and a poor hitter, just that those numbers are unsustainable.

[BoomBoom]

Freeman hits a lot of LDs, which is why his batted balls project a .340ish BABIP. And he doesn't have much speed, which makes his .371 BABIP and .443 BABIP w/ RISP last year even a bigger outlier. Bring that back to earth, like a still very good .340, and suddenly his counting stats are going to drop too. No one is suggesting he's a complete fluke and a poor hitter, just that those numbers are unsustainable.

yeah, but at his age you also have to factor in generally increased production and power. mostly a wash, especially if he gets more people on base in front of him, which is likely, unless BJ stays in the 2 hole for some reason known only to Fredi.

[msstate7]

2 year window without making a World Series yet = complete bust. Ok got it.

And I think you are projecting this "think they are the Yankees" shit.

As for "elite" players, who are the braves and the phillies elite players?

Can't speak for phillies, but Simmons is best ss in game. CK is best closer in game. FF is outstanding defensively and offensively, but not quite elite (chance to be though).

[smootness]

Simmons has overachieved at the plate relative to his history.

This is not true.

[dawgs]

Can't speak for phillies, but Simmons is best ss in game. CK is best closer in game. FF is outstanding defensively and offensively, but not quite elite (chance to be though).

Andrelton Simmons is NOT an elite player. He could be if his offense is ever worth a shit, but he's not. Freeman could be, but so could harper (to use dawg61's rationale), and Harper has a higher ceiling. Closer is probably the least important spot on the team to have an elite guy.

Btw what SS was ahead of Simmons with the 2nd best WAR among SSs last season? Yeah just that "good" player Ian Desmond. He also finished 2nd in WAR among SSs in 2012. I think the nats will be ok with that, whether anyone wants to consider it "elite" or just "good".

The point isn't to bash the braves, the point is that none of his rationale for hating on the nats makes any sense whatsoever and could easily be applied to almost every other team out there.

[msstate7]

This is not true.

Andrelton Simmons is NOT an elite player. He could be if his offense is ever worth a shit, but he's not. Freeman could be, but so could harper (to use dawg61's rationale), and Harper has a higher ceiling. Closer is probably the least important spot on the team to have an elite guy.

The point isn't to bash the braves, the point is that none of his rationale for hating on the nats makes any sense whatsoever and could easily be applied to almost every other team out there.

You've obviously never watched the braves. Simmons is elite even if he hits .200. His defense is that good.