UPig Game 3 Thread

[Will James]

Just because I don't agree with you

Should you hit or stay on 18. Hitting and getting a 3 doesn't mean its the right play. Thats the point. One option works 70% of the time. One about 58%. I'm going with 70.

[I seen it dawg]

I don't think you ever actually played the game of baseball. You get slide rules...baseball bats not so much

[Will James]

Not judging it on results dipshit. It's the right baseball call for the situation we were in. If he would have popped it up and got Pirtle doubled off it's still the right call to make. Everytime. In that particular situation.

Outs		0		1		2
Empty		32%		18%		07%
1st		49%		32%		15%
2nd		70%		47%		25%
1st and 2nd		71%		49%		27%
3rd		89%		73%		32%
1st and 3rd		89%		70%		34%
2nd and 3rd		89%		73%		32%
Loaded		90%		72%		39%

Can you guarantee the bunt has a 97% success rate. No. MLB rates are 50%. That makes the bunt here give us a 60% (73+47)/2 chance of success. Not bunting gives a 70% chance of scoring. I figured this game full of buntfails would resonate but sadly no

[dawgs]

Ignorance is bliss

Some people will always being up the exceptions to "prove" the odds wrong. Glad we won, but I'm with you on the bunt thing in general. Depends on who is at bat though and if you only need the 1 run.

[I seen it dawg]

Outs		0		1		2
Empty		32%		18%		07%
1st		49%		32%		15%
2nd		70%		47%		25%
1st and 2nd		71%		49%		27%
3rd		89%		73%		32%
1st and 3rd		89%		70%		34%
2nd and 3rd		89%		73%		32%
Loaded		90%		72%		39%

Can you guarantee the bunt has a 97% success rate. No. MLB rates are 50%. That makes the bunt here give us a 60% (73+47)/2 chance of success. Not bunting gives a 70% chance of scoring. I figured this game full of buntfails would resonate but sadly no

Your table doesn't mean shit because of the situation the game was in. Also you can't just take 2 percentages and divide by 2...what in the samshit is that? The % increases from man on 2nd with no outs to man on 3rd with 1 out. But more dramatically so I would imagine when the defense HAS to stop that run in the late innings and what it causes the pitcher and defense to have to do (human element). It's situational baseball not algorithms and calculators. You'll never get it.

[whosyourdawgy]

WTF is this? So bunting him to 3rd gives us a 60 percent chance to score with no outs? Where is the chart for hitting away with a man on 2nd and no outs? In the 8th inning, leading 4-1

[I seen it dawg]

Some people will always being up the exceptions to "prove" the odds wrong. Glad we won, but I'm with you on the bunt thing in general. Depends on who is at bat though and if you only need the 1 run.

I'm not disputing the "odds" but in THAT baseball situation it's the right call 100% of the time.

[I seen it dawg]

I don't think you ever actually played the game of baseball. You get slide rules...baseball bats not so much

Will?

[Will James]

Your table doesn't mean shit because of the situation the game was in. Also you can't just take 2 percentages and divide by 2...what in the samshit is that?

Assuming a 50% bunt success rate, which is what the MLB rate is, you absolutely add them together and divide by 2.

[Will James]

WTF is this? So bunting him to 3rd gives us a 60 percent chance to score with no outs? Where is the chart for hitting away with a man on 2nd and no outs? In the 8th inning, leading 4-1

Are you and WinningIsRelentless cousins? How is that chart hard to comprehend.

[Will James]

I'm not disputing the "odds" but in THAT baseball situation it's the right call 100% of the time.

What makes you assume a successful bunt?

[I seen it dawg]

What makes you assume a successful bunt?

I'm not assuming a successful bunt dumbass. It's the right CALL. If it doesn't work it doesn't work but it's the right call.

[whosyourdawgy]

Are you and WinningIsRelentless cousins? How is that chart hard to comprehend.

Oh I see So bunting him to 3rd increased his chances of scoring from 70 to 73 percent. I see now.

[Will James]

Oh I see So bunting him to 3rd increased his chances of scoring from 70 to 73 percent. I see now.

If the bunt is successful....

[Coach34]

Assuming a 50% bunt success rate, which is what the MLB rate is, you absolutely add them together and divide by 2.

Will, here is where you go horribly wrong:

You cant use MLB stats for college players. MLB players are more efficient in every aspect of the game- including bunt defense. Plus there is a wider talent discrepancy in college baseball team to team than there is in MLB

You dont include the human element- those percentages differ in the late innings with the game on the line vs earlier in the game when players are more relaxed

You think Hunter Renfroe was even remotely clutch

[Will James]

Oh I see So bunting him to 3rd increased his chances of scoring from 70 to 73 percent. I see now.

If the bunt is successful....

[Will James]

Will, here is where you go horribly wrong:

You cant use MLB stats for college players. MLB players are more efficient in every aspect of the game- including bunt defense. Plus there is a wider talent discrepancy in college baseball team to team than there is in MLB

You dont include the human element- those percentages differ in the late innings with the game on the line vs earlier in the game when players are more relaxed

You think Hunter Renfroe was even remotely clutch

Bunters are much worse in college.

[Will James]

I'm not assuming a successful bunt dumbass. It's the right CALL. If it doesn't work it doesn't work but it's the right call.

Taking every time with a 3-2 count is the right call because you could get a walk. Sometimes they throw a strike but its still the right CALL*

[Coach34]

Bunters are much worse in college.

so is bunt defense and pitchers throwing strikes

[I seen it dawg]

Taking every time with a 3-2 count is the right call because you could get a walk. Sometimes they throw a strike but its still the right CALL*

I'm now convinced of 2 things...you've never played real baseball and you are 13