Off and Def Efficiency Numbers

[confucius say]

Anybody got ours compared to auburn?
Somebody posted a neat little linear graph that I would like to see updated if you still have access to it.

[Quaoarsking]

In FPI, we are #82 in offense and #46 in defense.
Auburn is #95 in offense and #15 in defense.

However, those are across the whole year, and I think we're a little better than both of our numbers now. I like our chances.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Here's a sample (national ranks):

State

TDs per drive - 77th
Drives that gain at least 10 yds - 101st
% of available yards gained per drive - 92nd

TDs allowed per drive - 92nd
Drives allowed that gain at least 10 yards - 83rd
% of available yards allowed per drive - 82nd

Auburn

TDs per drive - 92nd
Drives that gain at least 10 yds - 113th
% of available yards gained per drive - 124th

TDs allowed per drive - 68th
Drives allowed that gain at least 10 yards - 58th
% of available yards allowed per drive - 62nd

For context, Auburn's offensive numbers in those categories are -- alongside Arkansas's equally miserable numbers -- the worst in the SEC. Yes, even worse than Vandy. (And of course we're not many rungs higher.) They're currently even a little worse than they were last year and are approaching the rarified air of their offense in 2012, when they were winless in the SEC.

For whatever the opponent adjustments of the FEI system are worth, that scale ranks MSU's offense at 63rd nationally and Auburn at 87th. (Bottom four in the SEC are State, Vandy, Auburn, and Arkansas.) And it ranks MSU defense at 44th (10th in the SEC) and Auburn's at 15th (4th in the SEC). Those opponent adjustments tell me that the system still likes the SEC a lot because our raw defensive numbers are rough and Auburn's seem average. (I mean, vs. Power 5 teams, Auburn is bottom third in the SEC in yards allowed per play and 9th in scoring D.)

So, like last week, the matchup is about as good as we could ever hope for on the road. Auburn's offense is very, very, very bad. And their defense, while better than ours, is far from elite. And even then, their strength may be more in pass D than run D, which should play to Wright's strength.

[confucius say]

Good stuff.

[Santiago]

Auburn D shut down ole miss for the most part, but were just worn out by the 4th quarter without any help from the offense.
Our game may boil down to that in the 4th, and making a big play.

[Coach34]

Auburn D shut down ole miss for the most part, but were just worn out by the 4th quarter without any help from the offense.
Our game may boil down to that in the 4th, and making a big play.

Dart threw 17 (completing 10) passes Saturday night while they ran it 56 times.

Auburn only threw 17 passes on the night

Our game Saturday might be over in 2 1/2 hours

[BuckyIsAB****]

Auburn got gashed on the ground by an OM OL that is not great.

[MBDawg601]

In FPI, we are #82 in offense and #46 in defense.
Auburn is #95 in offense and #15 in defense.

However, those are across the whole year, and I think we're a little better than both of our numbers now. I like our chances.

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

[confucius say]

Auburn got gashed on the ground by an OM OL that is not great.

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

[Really Clark?]

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

Kind of goes both ways though. Auburn's pass defense is a lot better than their rush defense so that's how teams are attacking them too.

[NWADAWG]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

Hogs offensive performance - total yards

379 - western Carolina
308 - Kent state
424 - BYU
426 - LSU
174 - ATM
286 - ole miss
250 - Bama
200 - State

200 yards is not their "typical performance".

[BrunswickDawg]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

No we didn't - we held them well below their typical performance. They were averaging 321 yards a game on the season, and 312 against P5 opponents. We held them to 200 yards. Only A&M has held them to less (174 yards) - even then A&M still somehow gave up 15 offensive points against them (compared to our 3). But, yards aren't what matters - its the score. Arkansas was averaging 29.8 points a game coming in, and averaging 25 points a game against P5 teams. We held them to 3. The next best team (OM) gave up 20.

So, does Arkansas suck? Yeah probably. But acting like we didn't have an impressive defensive performance against them is ridiculous. It's statistically the best defensive performance they have seen all year.

[Really Clark?]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

That was not their typical performance. In just yards that was their second worse performance of the season and 112 yards less than their average. You didn't and don't want to do points.

You are calling people out in threads asking if they watched the game and completely fabricating that everyone is all giddy over last Sat. It's a false narrative and you need to get over yourself. Defense played a lot better Sat. Period. We will find out shortly if it was a mirage or if it is something to build on. Quit acting like everyone is satisfied with that, they are not. You are just creating a fake narrative to make pissy posts, go find some Midol.

[Santiago]

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

I wonder if Auburn's offense could muster some sustaining drives, if that would give their defense even better stats as well. Not to mention, just not being worn down in the 4th.

[LC Dawg]

No we didn't - we held them well below their typical performance. They were averaging 321 yards a game on the season, and 312 against P5 opponents. We held them to 200 yards. Only A&M has held them to less (174 yards) - even then A&M still somehow gave up 15 offensive points against them (compared to our 3). But, yards aren't what matters - its the score. Arkansas was averaging 29.8 points a game coming in, and averaging 25 points a game against P5 teams. We held them to 3. The next best team (OM) gave up 20.

So, does Arkansas suck? Yeah probably. But acting like we didn't have an impressive defensive performance against them is ridiculous. It's statistically the best defensive performance they have seen all year.

Exactly.
I understand people not being happy with the season so far but not acknowledging that our defense played very well last week doesn't make sense.

[MBDawg601]

That was not their typical performance. In just yards that was their second worse performance of the season and 112 yards less than their average. You didn't and don't want to do points.

You are calling people out in threads asking if they watched the game and completely fabricating that everyone is all giddy over last Sat. It's a false narrative and you need to get over yourself. Defense played a lot better Sat. Period. We will find out shortly if it was a mirage or if it is something to build on. Quit acting like everyone is satisfied with that, they are not. You are just creating a fake narrative to make pissy posts, go find some Midol.

We are still one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Not sure what you are arguing. Sounds like you are a little upset?

[MBDawg601]

Hogs offensive performance - total yards

379 - western Carolina
308 - Kent state
424 - BYU
426 - LSU
174 - ATM
286 - ole miss
250 - Bama
200 - State

200 yards is not their "typical performance".

They haven't broken 300 yards in the past 4 games. Looks pretty typical to me.

[Really Clark?]

We are still one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Not sure what you are arguing. Sounds like you are a little upset?

Naw, just giving it back to you since you want to call people out falsely. Thought I was I pretty clear you are making up a narrative.

[Really Clark?]

They haven't broken 300 yards in the past 4 games. Looks pretty typical to me and they still out gained us.

Both offenses sucked...but we out gained them.

TAM, # 9 in the country in total defense
Bama, # 15 in the country in total defense

Would think they had a lot to do with them not gaining a lot in 2 of those games

We are 9th in conference in total defense and 7th in conference only games. Seems there are several teams worse than ours.

[MBDawg601]

Naw, just giving it back to you since you want to call people out falsely. Thought I was I pretty clear you are making up a narrative.

Calling people out? You mean disagreeing with them and stating facts about our performance?

Keep posting like a child. It is a good look for you.