Top 25 baseball score updates from the weekend

[engie]

Ok, so are we supposed to take the opposing team's RPI and multiply it by the appropriate factor? And since we're talking about which losses hurt more, we can ignore the UCSB games, as that would just compare how our road-trip compared to the HC games, not a relevant stat.

So, do we take Arizona's RPI, multiply it by 1.3, then subtract it from our RPI, followed by multiplying HC's RPI by .7 (x 2 for 2 losses) and subtract the sum from our RPI?

ETA - I know that can't be it, but perhaps something relational?

Correct in that it's not nearly that simple...

RPI is just an accumulation of overall mathematical data. You must have and apply this weighted w/l percentage to every team in the country including your own in order to accurately reflect it -- and it's only good for that "snapshot" in time. By time time you've calculated this using any "common sense" method, someone has played a game somewhere, and there's been a trickle down effect to literally every other team in the country(the 6 degrees of separation rule basically) rendering your data obsolete before you ever published it from an "exact" standpoint. In this, the teams that played the game's RPI is affected hugely, their immediate opponents are affected somewhat notably, their opponents' opponents are affected measurably, although minutely -- and the further you get from the actual matchup, the infinitely smaller the difference(it does make a difference to literally everyone though).

What I've found is that the "SOS factor" of it, while important, is basically immeasurable for the practical reasons I've shown -- unless you are a spreadsheet guru that can automate from online data and don't mind setting 3rd and 4th dimensional analysis -- which, in essence, Boyd and Nolan have both already done for us anyway.

Your own RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' opponents RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.

You can get pretty damn close RPI Hypotheses by figuring current RPI W/L percentage -- and expected future RPI W/L percentage. Multiply both numbers times 1/3 and note the difference in the two numbers. From there, you assume your SOS is a constant(the other 2/3 of the formula which is constantly fluctuating, but unlikely to go up or down too drastically at one time and is much more "slowly moving" in notable terms overall).

EX:
Our current RPI W/L record is: 13.7-11.6
RPI WP: .5415
RPI win/loss effect: .1805

Taking 2 of 3 at home is "break even" in conference play, as is 1 of 3 on the road. Taking 2 of 3 from Arky will not help our RPI much. We'd have to sweep to see a big jumb. But if we took 2 of 3 in Baton Rouge, we'd be in business -- and we could almost quit worrying about RPI being a factor altogether. Still, even if we split these 2 series it will help our SOS -- and that would be enough to move up a couple of spots -- but not enough to make measuring it worthwhile.

Assuming we go 5-2 in the next 7 games, which is winning a midweek, 2-1 against Arky, and 2-1 in Baton Rouge(a tough goal -- but doable), this is how things will look.
Begin RPI: .5546
RPI W/L record in those games: 4.7-2
RPI W/L record overall: 18.4-13.6
RPI WP: .575
RPI win/loss effect: .1917

Improvement: .0112
New RPI: .5658
New current RPI position: 43rd
New position using final RPIs of last season(after regression of conference games for most teams): 24th

With the SOS factor included -- that would put us realistically around 35th currently and on pace to be in the top 20 at the end of the year...

[messageboardsuperhero]

Correct in that it's not nearly that simple...

RPI is just an accumulation of overall mathematical data. You must have and apply this weighted w/l percentage to every team in the country including your own in order to accurately reflect it -- and it's only good for that "snapshot" in time. By time time you've calculated this using any "common sense" method, someone has played a game somewhere, and there's been a trickle down effect to literally every other team in the country(the 6 degrees of separation rule basically) rendering your data obsolete before you ever published it from an "exact" standpoint. In this, the teams that played the game's RPI is affected hugely, their immediate opponents are affected somewhat notably, their opponents' opponents are affected measurably, although minutely -- and the further you get from the actual matchup, the infinitely smaller the difference(it does make a difference to literally everyone though).

What I've found is that the "SOS factor" of it, while important, is basically immeasurable for the practical reasons I've shown -- unless you are a spreadsheet guru that can automate from online data and don't mind setting 3rd and 4th dimensional analysis -- which, in essence, Boyd and Nolan have both already done for us anyway.

Your own RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.
Your opponents' opponents RPI-weighted W/L is 1/3 of it.

You can get pretty damn close RPI Hypotheses by figuring current RPI W/L percentage -- and expected future RPI W/L percentage. Multiply both numbers times 1/3 and note the difference in the two numbers. From there, you assume your SOS is a constant(the other 2/3 of the formula which is constantly fluctuating, but unlikely to go up or down too drastically at one time and is much more "slowly moving" in notable terms overall).

EX:
Our current RPI W/L record is: 13.7-11.6
RPI WP: .5415
RPI win/loss effect: .1805

Taking 2 of 3 at home is "break even" in conference play, as is 1 of 3 on the road. Taking 2 of 3 from Arky will not help our RPI much. We'd have to sweep to see a big jumb. But if we took 2 of 3 in Baton Rouge, we'd be in business -- and we could almost quit worrying about RPI being a factor altogether. Still, even if we split these 2 series it will help our SOS -- and that would be enough to move up a couple of spots -- but not enough to make measuring it worthwhile.

Assuming we go 5-2 in the next 7 games, which is winning a midweek, 2-1 against Arky, and 2-1 in Baton Rouge(a tough goal -- but doable), this is how things will look.
Begin RPI: .5546
RPI W/L record in those games: 4.7-2
RPI W/L record overall: 18.4-13.6
RPI WP: .575
RPI win/loss effect: .1917

Improvement: .0112
New RPI: .5658
New current RPI position: 43rd
New position using final RPIs of last season(after regression of conference games for most teams): 24th

With the SOS factor included -- that would put us realistically around 35th currently and on pace to be in the top 20 at the end of the year...

Wow, that's really interesting.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but essentially a team's RPI is determined based on:
33.3% of what you do.
About .595% (33.3%/56) of how your opponent each game does.
And about .011% (33.3%/around 3136) of how your opponent's opponents do each game.

I know this is hard to predict right now (and depends a good bit on who we beat and where we beat them), but about how many SEC wins would we need for you to feel comfortable about our hosting chances at this point?

[blacklistedbully]

I figure 17 regular season SEC wins will get us a host spot if we take care of business OOC, including beating USM & OM in Pearl. Less and we have to win some in the SECT. I'm thinking we could survive split-series-losses at LSU, Auburn & Bama if we win the series vs Arky, OM, Mizzou, TAMU and UT, as well as sweep at least one of those.

To be a national seed, I think we need to win every series at least 2-1 plus sweep at least 1. Or if we lose any series, we'd need to sweep another to make up for it. This is assuming we don't lose any of the 5 remaining OOC games.

All speculation, of course, and impacted by outside factors such as our RPI, which is, of course impacted by our opponents RPI and our opponent's opponent's RPI. To keep it simple, we mostly want the teams we play and beat to win their other games to a point. Where it gets interesting is to wonder where things land if LSU, Vandy, OM, Bama, Auburn, UT or various combinations win enough outside our series to take a national seed away from us, despite a series loss to us.

Would be fun to have an educated guess on all that. An uneducated guess makes me think the only ones that could would be Vandy, LSU or OM.

[engie]

Wow, that's really interesting.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but essentially a team's RPI is determined based on:
33.3% of what you do.
About .595% (33.3%/56) of how your opponent each game does.
And about .011% (33.3%/around 3136) of how your opponent's opponents do each game.

I know this is hard to predict right now (and depends a good bit on who we beat and where we beat them), but about how many SEC wins would we need for you to feel comfortable about our hosting chances at this point?

That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

[blacklistedbully]

That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

[messageboardsuperhero]

I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

They might be determined before the championship game, I believe.

[messageboardsuperhero]

That's correct. And also why SOS is basically not worth trying to calculate practically. While it does matter and can be drastic at times, overall, it's peas in the ocean compared to your own personal WP.

I think 17-13 puts us on the hosting bubble with a decent chance. 18-12 and we're locks to host. 19-11 or better and we can start to discuss a national seed...Doesn't really matter how we get there...

Also, a deep run in the SEC tourney would help -- although it's not a major factor to the committee -- it has the ability to alter RPI enough to make a difference for a borderline team.

Good stuff. Thanks.

[engie]

I thought national seeds were determined before the SECT.

They are determined and released on SEC Tournament Sunday -- generally announced while the championship game is being played, but long after the majority of the tournament has gone on. Then, the rest of the field is announced on Monday directly thereafter...

[slickdawg]

We practically eliminated ourselves from any chance of getting a national seed by losing several games that we should have won early in the season, plus our abysmal showing in Arizona. Our only remote chance to get back in that race is to win 22+ SEC regular games. Possible? yes. Likely? no.