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Significant severe weather outbreak expected Tuesday night
I first mentioned this a few days ago and things are starting to come together for what looks like a significant fall season severe weather event. This includes an increasing likelihood of a tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes. Currently, northwest MS looks to be the most likely part of the state to be affected and the SPC has placed that area under an enhanced hatched risk area. They also mentioned a possible to probable upgrade to a moderate risk as we get closer to the event. Have multiple ways to get warnings Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I may or may not be chasing. My truck is in the shop and I'm meeting resistance from the wife on using her car. Time will tell.
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Hey I understand that you can get Timmers Dominator IV real cheap!!
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Thanks again for the heads up! Your info is invaluable!
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One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
That sucks!
Will this move into the Nashville area?
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Originally Posted by
DownwardDawg
That sucks!
Will this move into the Nashville area?
It will but it should be much weaker by then.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
It will but it should be much weaker by then.
Thanks man.
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Senior Member
This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.
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Originally Posted by
ArrowDawg
This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.
Wow good to see you're still around Arrow.
"We will have no problem in handling Kentucky."-Turfdawg67. MSU suffered a 27-17 defeat in 2022 with 225 yards in total offense.
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SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.
I can't recall the last time you used the words "tornado outbreak". We all know that isnt a term you like to throw around willy-nilly. Time to batten down the hatches and say a few prayers then. Thanks SVD.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?
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Originally Posted by
RocketDawg
Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?
They have.
And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.
There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
They have.
And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.
There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
How's it looking for us down here in Jones County, SVD? Appreciate all your info!
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Senior Member
Originally Posted by
ArrowDawg
This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.
I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
They have.
And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.
There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
What time frame are we looking at for this ?
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Originally Posted by
Desoto1967
I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
Yes, that would be the wise thing to do.
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Just going to post this from Jackson NWS word for word.
Tuesday-Tuesday night: At the start, significant upper level jet &
strong cold frontal system will be taking shape over the central
Plains. Sfc cyclone of 995mb will be deepening over the central
Plains, quickly ejecting E-NE through the mid-MS Valley by midday
Tues & gaining latitude into the N Great Lakes by Tues evening to
Tues night. Sfc frontal system will be diving SE towards the area by
Tues aftn in the ArkLaTex through the Ozarks & Mid-MS Valley by Tues
evening & sweeping through the area by Wed morning. Strong synoptic
jet of 75-85kts @ 500mb & +125kts @ 300mb downstream jet streak
intensifying into the central Plains Tues in advance of mean trough
ejecting out of the Pacific NW with favorable jet
placement/diffluence in the area. Subtropical ridge will deepen over
the W Carribean, keeping the bulk of the trough/forcing & height
falls well off to the NW. However, significant WAA & moisture
advection will bring boundary layer moisture with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s-low 70s across the region. With anomalous warmth
& dewpoints, combination of moderate to significant destabilization
& anomalous mean bulk shear aloft will favor significant severe
weather event. This will lead to combination of significant
kinematics & thermo profiles, some values not seen per SPC sounding
climatology (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) & long clockwise
curved hodographs with +300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH & mean layer
bulk shear around 30-45kts in the 0-1km/0-3km & 50-60kts in the 0-
6km layer. This will continue to support all modes of significant
severe weather, including tornadoes, some strong & long track
tornadoes, damaging winds up to 80mph & large hail of golf ball size
or potentially larger. Highest threat looks to be along & NW of the
Natchez Trace corridor. Storm mode looks to be a combination of mid-
morning warm advection showers growing upscale & developing into
supercell mode into the afternoon hours. There are some challenges
on initial development timing & any southern storms developing
across the region, which could limit some inflow of most efficient
moisture. However, this area in SE MS could have better mid-level
capping & 700mb heights which could suppress some convection into
the Pine Belt. After collaboration with SPC earlier today, the
"Moderate" & "Enhanced" risk areas were expanded to the E & SE into
the Hwy 82/Hwy 45 corridors & along I-20 corridors, while the Slight
was also expanded to include the most S & E extreme portions of the
region. Timing for the most significant severe weather looks to be
in the 6PM to midnight timeframe, with some lingering after midnight
through 4AM. The earlier development is tricky & some severe &
tornado potential are possible as early as mid-morning to early aftn
hours. Kept timing as is for now but confidence beginning of the
warm sector supercells is lower while increased confidence of
decreasing severe potential in the Delta around 8PM-11PM in the NW
Delta, the I-55 corridor around midnight or 1AM & most potential
moved out by just before daybreak in E-SE MS.
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I sense some foreboding in SVD's post from NWS. Bad news.
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Originally Posted by
Desoto1967
I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
Absolutely
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