This week can change everything

[smootness]

Ok, here’s how it works:
Peach and Fiesta are untied to any conference, but they are the CFP semis this year.
Cotton is also untied, so the CFP will choose it; it will be a G5 and the highest ranked team not in another bowl.
Sugar - SEC vs B12
Rose - B10 vs P12
Orange - ACC vs highest ranked SEC/B10/ND.

So it’s all going to depend. And it will come down to one Cotton slot and one Orange slot, and the highest ranked teams who aren’t already tied into other bowls will take those slots. But unless the SEC gets 2 teams in the playoff, they would have to get BOTH of those slots to get 4 in the NY6. That is possible but by no means a guarantee. It’s all because the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinal games. If 2 or 3 of the non-CFP NY6 were untied to specific conference slots, it would be just about a guarantee the SEC would get 4 in. But since only 1 is untied (Cotton), it makes it much harder.

Let’s take the current ranking and assume Ohio State beats Michigan, UGA beats LSU, and every other team wins out and remains ranked where they are in the order. The CFP would likely be UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC. Then Rose would be Michigan vs Oregon, Sugar would be LSU vs Kansas St, Orange would be Clemson vs Bama, and Cotton would be Tulane/Cincy vs Tennessee. So the SEC would get 4 in. BUT that’s certainly not a given. It’s probably going to come down to whether someone can jump Tennessee, assuming they and Bama win this week (though not a guarantee). Tennessee needs to stay ahead of Penn St, Kansas St, and Notre Dame. If that happens, the SEC probably does get 4 NY6 teams in, assuming something crazy like LSU getting destroyed and falling to 11-12 (would be a pretty big surprise) doesn’t happen.

If Penn State jumped Tennessee for some reason, Tennessee would bump down to the Citrus. If Kansas St beats TCU and Clemson gets into the CFP by winning the ACC, Kansas St and TCU probably both get ranked ahead of Tennessee, and Tennessee again gets the Citrus. Oregon beating USC could throw a wrench in things as well, if USC still remains above Tennessee. Notre Dame jumping Tennessee seems unlikely even if they beat USC, but it’s possible. Also, if Oregon beats USC and Clemson makes the CFP and USC stays above Tennessee then FSU goes to the Orange and that makes it basically impossible for the SEC to get 4 in.

So first, Bama and Tennessee need to win, obviously. Then it will come down to Tennessee vs Penn St and also will depend on games like the P12 championship, ND/USC, B12 championship, again assuming LSU doesn’t fall crazy far.

I’d say 4 SEC teams in is probable but more like a 50-60ish% likelihood, not 90+. Just too many possibilities there to be that high.