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Great discussion! I?m soooo ready for college baseball to start. I?m just about done from following college football. They IMO have ruined college football. And college basketball is really getting hard to watch (fouls and more fouls). 40+ years of seriously of following the reigning National Champion Dawgs (that still sends chills to say) I?m so proud to discuss that we have a program that for the foreseeable future will be at elite status!
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Originally Posted by
smootness
If Sims can be a legit Friday guy, he's more valuable there, that's why you make that move.
He'll have to dial back some of the intensity and probably a little velocity to start, but no reason he can't do that and be a starter like anyone else.
Is that really true though? I know that's conventional wisdom, but surely as much time put into baseball analytics, somebody has some numbers on what a closer who can close two games a weekend is worth compared to a friday night starter. I know we didn't let Sims pitch twice in a weekend for the most part, but we could have, and I presume would have done so more this year if he had stayed at closer.
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Is that really true though? I know that's conventional wisdom, but surely as much time put into baseball analytics, somebody has some numbers on what a closer who can close two games a weekend is worth compared to a friday night starter. I know we didn't let Sims pitch twice in a weekend for the most part, but we could have, and I presume would have done so more this year if he had stayed at closer.
I think it is true, especially on this team. Because right now we don’t have any guys we know we can rely on as a consistent SP, and if you don’t have a Friday guy who can compete, that’s a bunch of losses already on your schedule.
We can find somebody who can be good enough on the back end, we really need someone who can allow us to compete every Friday night. That’s harder to fill than closer for us. And it also maximizes his innings, especially if Sims is only going to pitch once most weekends.
Once you get to postseason play, it may be a tougher argument, but for the season as a whole, I think we’re better off if Sims can give us 6-7 every Friday.
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Is that really true though? I know that's conventional wisdom, but surely as much time put into baseball analytics, somebody has some numbers on what a closer who can close two games a weekend is worth compared to a friday night starter.
Well, that assumes you have starters that can keep you in position to actually need a closer twice in a weekend. A guy that is money on Friday, over the course of a season, is invaluable.
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I think people are seriously underestimating Sims' potential as a Friday night guy. He's got a real chance to be what Bednar was for us last year, and possibly even better. As far as I'm concerned, Sims is already one of our all time greats, and if he has a big year as a starter then I think he's got a legit case for being the best pitcher in school history.
Look for Preston Johnson to be in contention for a weekend starting spot too. We have some younger guys who are probably more talented but Preston is a bit more consistent.
I feel like we have too much talent in the bullpen to not figure it out on the back end at some point. It's tough to expect anyone to be as unbelievably dominant as Sims was last year, and maybe we blow a game in the late innings here and there, but I think we will eventually find one or two guys we can count on in close games.
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Hosting regionals should be the standard. You then set yourself up with advantages to make a run.
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Originally Posted by
BrunswickDawg
That's way to high of an expectation. Even the best programs are lucky to make it multiple times in a decade - and we've made it 4 times in 10 years - and would likely have 5 if not for 2020 being cancelled. Arguably our best team over the last decade -2016 - got bounced in the Supers. Making the CWS is tough.
We are currently on our longest Omaha streak in program history, this is the first time we have ever made it three postseasons in a row. I think people forget that sometimes and do not appreciate how hard it is to do what we have done the last few years.
We are probably due a year or two where we unexpectedly get bounced in a Super or even in the Regional round. Just not realistic to expect Omaha every single year, even LSU didn't do it in the 90's when they had their historic run under Bertman. If we go 5 times in a decade then that's a great 10 year stretch.
I would also like to think we aren't done winning national titles but it's far from a sure thing that we win another one anytime soon. For all of Vanderbilt's advantages and success, they only have two championships. Florida has been in Omaha a ton and only has one championship to show for it. LSU hasn't won a title in over a decade in spite of having some great teams in the 2010's. Arkansas is still looking for their first trophy. All you can do is keep putting yourself in a position to make it to Omaha and hope that things break your way once you are there.
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Originally Posted by
Captain Falcon
We are currently on our longest Omaha streak in program history, this is the first time we have ever made it three postseasons in a row. I think people forget that sometimes and do not appreciate how hard it is to do what we have done the last few years.
We are probably due a year or two where we unexpectedly get bounced in a Super or even in the Regional round. Just not realistic to expect Omaha every single year, even LSU didn't do it in the 90's when they had their historic run under Bertman. If we go 5 times in a decade then that's a great 10 year stretch.
I would also like to think we aren't done winning national titles but it's far from a sure thing that we win another one anytime soon. For all of Vanderbilt's advantages and success, they only have two championships. Florida has been in Omaha a ton and only has one championship to show for it. LSU hasn't won a title in over a decade in spite of having some great teams in the 2010's. Arkansas is still looking for their first trophy. All you can do is keep putting yourself in a position to make it to Omaha and hope that things break your way once you are there.
We've been on an unreal run over the past 11 seasons - going back to 2011.
'11 - 9 outs from Omaha when UF rallied
'12 - 9 outs from a Super when Samford rallied
'13 - CWS runner-up
'14 - lose Regional Final at ULL
'15 - bottom fell out with ball and bay change
'16 - SEC Champs - lose Super to CW runner-up
'17 - lose Super to CWS runner-up
'18 - CWS #3 - lost to CWS winner
'19 - CWS #5
'20 - COVID
'21 - CWS Winner
In 11 years that's 7 Regionals won, 4 Supers Won, 2 CWS Finals, 1 Natty. Gotta love it!
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Originally Posted by
BrunswickDawg
We've been on an unreal run over the past 11 seasons - going back to 2011.
'11 - 9 outs from Omaha when UF rallied
'12 - 9 outs from a Super when Samford rallied
'13 - CWS runner-up
'14 - lose Regional Final at ULL
'15 - bottom fell out with ball and bay change
'16 - SEC Champs - lose Super to CW runner-up
'17 - lose Super to CWS runner-up
'18 - CWS #3 - lost to CWS winner
'19 - CWS #5
'20 - COVID
'21 - CWS Winner
In 11 years that's 7 Regionals won, 4 Supers Won, 2 CWS Finals, 1 Natty. Gotta love it!
Damn!
Maybe we should try hiring a former football coach as our next AD...maybe we can duplicate that in football
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Originally Posted by
CadaverDawg
Damn!
Maybe we should try hiring a former football coach as our next AD...maybe we can duplicate that in football
I hear Dan Mullen is looking for a job.***
If it ain't broke, fix it til it is.
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Originally Posted by
BrunswickDawg
That's way to high of an expectation. Even the best programs are lucky to make it multiple times in a decade - and we've made it 4 times in 10 years - and would likely have 5 if not for 2020 being cancelled. Arguably our best team over the last decade -2016 - got bounced in the Supers. Making the CWS is tough.
I agree with you 100%. What I was saying is that many of our fans seem to feel like the world is ending if we don?t make a good Omaha run because baseball has been so successful. I just want us to remain true to our baseball identity rather than becoming the Bammers of baseball- a fanbase that sees anything other than a NC as a failure and the season as a waste. MSU baseball has always been a journey celebrated from start to finish. I hope it stays that way.
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Originally Posted by
BrunswickDawg
We've been on an unreal run over the past 11 seasons - going back to 2011.
'11 - 9 outs from Omaha when UF rallied
'12 - 9 outs from a Super when Samford rallied
'13 - CWS runner-up
'14 - lose Regional Final at ULL
'15 - bottom fell out with ball and bay change
'16 - SEC Champs - lose Super to CW runner-up
'17 - lose Super to CWS runner-up
'18 - CWS #3 - lost to CWS winner
'19 - CWS #5
'20 - COVID
'21 - CWS Winner
In 11 years that's 7 Regionals won, 4 Supers Won, 2 CWS Finals, 1 Natty. Gotta love it!
Not to mention completely dominating ole miss in that stretch
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My takes:
We are one of the most talented teams in the Country
We have some damn good experienced guys returning
Our pitching is will be top 10 in the Country
Offensively we will be better than last year
Super is always the expectation. From there is always tough.
Sims was always going to become a SP. He needs to improve on a 3rd pitch and transition from intense Animal to SP mentality
Our 3rd SP will shake out- just need it done by March and not still searching into April
We have some vets and other arm talent in the pen- we will be fine.
My line-up to start would probably be:
1. Hancock
2. James
3. Clark
4. Tanner
5. Hines
6. Cumbest
7. Yeager
8. Davis/Skinner
9. Foreskin
I probably flip James and Hancock vs LHP's early on. See how it shakes out. We have quality starters plus some bench.
The odds are against a repeat- but this team is good enough to do it. Should be a fun ride
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Originally Posted by
KOdawg1
Not to mention completely dominating ole miss in that stretch
We own Bianco. He calls foolish plays and gets his teams uptight when playing us. They have good enough talent, but their coach cracks under pressure.
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Is that really true though? I know that's conventional wisdom, but surely as much time put into baseball analytics, somebody has some numbers on what a closer who can close two games a weekend is worth compared to a friday night starter. I know we didn't let Sims pitch twice in a weekend for the most part, but we could have, and I presume would have done so more this year if he had stayed at closer.
To be honest, we were careful w him. AND he was careful himself. There was more than once he basically made himself unavailable. We'd get to the field and he wouldn't have his spikes on...
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Originally Posted by
Coach34
My takes:
We are one of the most talented teams in the Country
We have some damn good experienced guys returning
Our pitching is will be top 10 in the Country
Offensively we will be better than last year
Super is always the expectation. From there is always tough.
Sims was always going to become a SP. He needs to improve on a 3rd pitch and transition from intense Animal to SP mentality
Our 3rd SP will shake out- just need it done by March and not still searching into April
We have some vets and other arm talent in the pen- we will be fine.
My line-up to start would probably be:
1. Hancock
2. James
3. Clark
4. Tanner
5. Hines
6. Cumbest
7. Yeager
8. Davis/Skinner
9. Foreskin
I probably flip James and Hancock vs LHP's early on. See how it shakes out. We have quality starters plus some bench.
The odds are against a repeat- but this team is good enough to do it. Should be a fun ride
This lineup does one thing lem has liked to do, split the hitters and lh hitter to prevent the lhp matchup for multiple guys. If personnel allows it, and sometimes it doesn't, it's a good strategy from an offensive standpoint
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Originally Posted by
Homedawg
This lineup does one thing lem has liked to do, split the hitters and lh hitter to prevent the lhp matchup for multiple guys. If personnel allows it, and sometimes it doesn't, it's a good strategy from an offensive standpoint
Yeah- I'm that guy also. Dont want to bunch guys from the same side unless you just have to
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Originally Posted by
Homedawg
This lineup does one thing lem has liked to do, split the hitters and lh hitter to prevent the lhp matchup for multiple guys. If personnel allows it, and sometimes it doesn't, it's a good strategy from an offensive standpoint
my lineup is going to end up more accurate. Hancock delievered so many times in RBI situations that Lem is planning on moving him to the 1 hole.
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Originally Posted by
Coach34
Yeah- I'm that guy also. Dont want to bunch guys from the same side unless you just have to
I do think Yeager is going to hit higher than 7th. But, your lineup is solid. Either way, having a guy that's going to hit double digit hr 7th is strong.
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Originally Posted by
HoopsDawg
my lineup is going to end up more accurate. Hancock delievered so many times in RBI situations that Lem is planning on moving him to the 1 hole.
Ot might be. But Davis really struggled in the fall. He won't get much rope in the lead off spot if they start him there.
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