Should we have just gone for the TD at the end?

[StarkVegasSteve]

Ok let me get this straight. You made a vaccine joke (not sure why) because I suggested we kick a 40 yard FG to tie a football rather than try and score a 33 yard TD to win the game with no time left?

We literally have the dumbest fan base. So iis the plan to throw a Hail Mary and hope for the best?

I'm just dumbfounded we have real fans actually advocating for this.

No. If you took the time to read I said that we should?ve run the skinny post to Williams that we ran all game that had been WIDE DAMN OPEN every time. The only time they defended it they had PI

[StarkVegasSteve]

No. If you took the time to read I said that we should?ve run the skinny post to Williams that we ran all game that had been WIDE DAMN OPEN every time. The only time they defended it they had PI

And again. None of our opinions matter at the end of the day. We?re just pontificating on a message board. We all want the same thing which is success for Mississippi State

[MetEdDawg]

No. If you took the time to read I said that we should?ve run the skinny post to Williams that we ran all game that had been WIDE DAMN OPEN every time. The only time they defended it they had PI

You do realize they would have been in a prevent defense with a 3 man rush and about 5 guys standing on the goal line correct?

I'm fine with saying Ruiz should have kicked it instead of McCord. But skinny post is the brilliant idea that gets us the 33 yard TD? Jesus.

[Dak Holliday]

A guy I went to school with, his brother kicked for GT in either 2003 or 2004. He missed 5 FGs in a game. The next game he hit the game winner. After the 5 misses people were texting him to end it all in the shower and not get on the bus.

Remember these guys chose to be Bulldogs. They are one of us.

Even with all the shit, our offense and defense did what it took to win the game. The refs decided to extend multiple drives for Ark today. The last one we can all agree was a 100% fictitious gift ala Memphis game all over again.

If anything, our fans should flood the SEC office with 17 you letters.

LBs miss tackles. OL miss blocks. QBs throw ints. That?s all part of the game. If anyone is considering sending Ruiz or McCord anything like that, I hope that they stop and ask themselves how they?d feel if someone sent that to their son or brother. It?s a game. It sucks to lose, but it?s not that important.

[ShotgunDawg]

Yes, I think so. Didn't we all know McCord would miss it?

If we couldn't trust Ruiz to put the first 2 out of his mind, ho for the win.

Good heavens this is ridiculous take.

[ShotgunDawg]

If you legitimately thought there was a chance in hell that we were making that kick then you are beyond stupid. We had no shot to make that and everyone knew it.

We had a much better chance at converting that kick than a 33 yard pass

[StarkVegasSteve]

You do realize they would have been in a prevent defense with a 3 man rush and about 5 guys standing on the goal line correct?

I'm fine with saying Ruiz should have kicked it instead of McCord. But skinny post is the brilliant idea that gets us the 33 yard TD? Jesus.

If they?re in prevent then we beat them. Odom would not have played prevent right there. 5 guys standing on the goaline and we just run a damn screen to Marks and let him walk in.

[Dak Holliday]

the answer is simple...



...that being said, it would be nice to have a FG kicker.

Like button push x2 ☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻

[MetEdDawg]

If they?re in prevent then we beat them. Odom would not have played prevent right there. 5 guys standing on the goaline and we just run a damn screen to Marks and let him walk in.

What????

You do know the guys can move forward to tackle right? It's not like foosball where the guys can only move laterally right?

This has gotten out of hand. I refuse to be part of this stupidity.

[StarkVegasSteve]

What????

You do know the guys can move forward to tackle right? It's not like foosball where the guys can only move laterally right?

This has gotten out of hand. I refuse to be part of this stupidity.

Since you apparently can?t do simple math I will help you. If they have 5 on the goal line that means they have 6 to cover everyone else. Common sense tells us they?ll put 3 down lineman so that?s 8. That leaves 3 to roam. We have 5 OL and 4 receivers in most sets so that?s 9 blocking. I?ll take my chances with your dumbass defense and I?m fairly certain I?ll score. I?m glad you?re refusing to be part of stupidity since you?ve contributed to it the entire thread to this point.

[cujo]

Since you apparently can?t do simple math I will help you. If they have 5 on the goal line that means they have 6 to cover everyone else. Common sense tells us they?ll put 3 down lineman so that?s 8. That leaves 3 to roam. We have 5 OL and 4 receivers in most sets so that?s 9 blocking. I?ll take my chances with your dumbass defense and I?m fairly certain I?ll score. I?m glad you?re refusing to be part of stupidity since you?ve contributed to it the entire thread to this point.

Nm

[Quaoarsking]

If you say yes seriously you are beyond stupid.

Try and convert a 40 yard FG or score a 33 yard TD?

If you legitimately think the answer is try for the 33 yard TD then I don't know what to say. You kick the FG every time in that situation.

You're serious aren't you?

This is absolutely ridiculous that this is even a topic of discussion.

I want you to ask every single football coach you know about our exact situation and see how many of them go for the 33 yard TD or the 40 yard FG and report back to us on your findings.

I'm legitimately baffled right now that people think going for a 33 yard TD was an actual option there.

Ok let me get this straight. You made a vaccine joke (not sure why) because I suggested we kick a 40 yard FG to tie a football rather than try and score a 33 yard TD to win the game with no time left?

We literally have the dumbest fan base. So is the plan to throw a Hail Mary and hope for the best?

I'm just dumbfounded we have real fans actually advocating for this.

You do realize they would have been in a prevent defense with a 3 man rush and about 5 guys standing on the goal line correct?

I'm fine with saying Ruiz should have kicked it instead of McCord. But skinny post is the brilliant idea that gets us the 33 yard TD? Jesus.

22 yards, not 33. I don't know how it's possible to know it was a ~40 yard field goal but also think such a FG would be snapped from the 33 yard line.

[Quaoarsking]

A 22-yard TD would probably be around a 20% chance to convert, given the circumstances. Maybe a little less.

The field goal there with McCord was ... maybe 1-of-3? And even if we get it, we go to Overtime where we're probably less than 50-50 to win, considering how we don't have a reliable kicker.

So, going for the TD from the 22 probably gives us a better chance to win the game than kicking with McCord. Kicking with Ruiz - if he's both physically and mentally healthy - may give us a higher chance, but I'm guess he was not at 100% or he would've been out there.

[Dak Holliday]

A 22-yard TD would probably be around a 20% chance to convert, given the circumstances. Maybe a little less.

The field goal there with McCord was ... maybe 1-of-3? And even if we get it, we go to Overtime where we're probably less than 50-50 to win, considering how we don't have a reliable kicker.

So, going for the TD from the 22 probably gives us a better chance to win the game than kicking with McCord. Kicking with Ruiz - if he's both physically and mentally healthy - may give us a higher chance, but I'm guess he was not at 100% or he would've been out there.

TD attempt < 20%
FG by your estimate 33%
OT win 50%
But going for it gives us the best chance? Your calculations aren?t used for bridges and such, huh?

[MetEdDawg]

22 yards, not 33. I don't know how it's possible to know it was a ~40 yard field goal but also think such a FG would be snapped from the 33 yard line.

My bad. Brain is a little fuzzy. I'm in the hospital and my daughter was born earlier this morning. I was thinking from a different spot.

Anyone that says chances of scoring a TD from the 23 yard line is better than making a 40 yard FG is living in crazy town. 20% of getting 23 yards in one try is absurd.

I'll say it again. It's no surprise certain people in this board don't or have never coached. When you say things like this it's obvious why you don't coach. I still can't believe multiple people in this fan base support a 23 yard pass attempt to win a game over a 40 yard FG to tie a game.

[Quaoarsking]

TD attempt < 20%
FG by your estimate 33%
OT win 50%
But going for it gives us the best chance? Your calculations aren?t used for bridges and such, huh?

Well, 33% * 50% = 16.5%, which is less than 20%, so...

[Dak Holliday]

Well, 33% * 50% = 16.5%, which is less than 20%, so...

They?re independent of one another. It?s 33% chance of getting to a 50% chance vs a less than 20% chance.

[Quaoarsking]

My bad. Brain is a little fuzzy. I'm in the hospital and my daughter was born earlier this morning. I was thinking from a different spot.

Anyone that says chances of scoring a TD from the 23 yard line is better than making a 40 yard FG is living in crazy town. 20% of getting 23 yards in one try is absurd.

I'll say it again. It's no surprise certain people in this board don't or have never coached. When you say things like this it's obvious why you don't coach. I still can't believe multiple people in this fan base support a 23 yard pass attempt to win a game over a 40 yard FG to tie a game.

Luckily no one is saying that. Because McCord's kick would have only tied the game, we would have had to have won in overtime even if he'd made it.

You can use whatever numbers you want, but McCord has to be twice as likely to make the kick there (probably a little more than twice as likely, since playing OT on the road without a reliable kicker is not really a coinflip) than we are to hit the 22-yard TD for the FG to be the right call.

So if you think the kicker was 40% to make it, we would need to be 20% to hit the TD (or a little less) to justify keeping the offense on the field. If the kicker is 80% to make it, you kick unless you have a 40% chance of the TD. Insert whatever numbers you want, but I don't the making the FG was twice as likely.

[Quaoarsking]

They?re independent of one another. It?s 33% chance of getting to a 50% chance vs a less than 20% chance.

To get the probability of winning the game after kicking, you multiply the probability of making the kick by the probability of winning in OT.

Plug in whatever numbers you want, but under the numbers we're discussing, it would be 16.5%. If we don't have a 16.5% chance of scoring the TD, try the kick. If we do, try a pass.

Or plug in better estimates that aren't just made up and run the calculation that way.

[memsu06]

It would have been a perfect time for a fake field goal attempt.

I say we work on faking field goals for the remaining games.