The higher the number, the more likely returning production in these areas is to coincide with strong offense:
Receiving yards correlation: 0.324
Passing yards correlation: 0.234
Rushing yards correlation: 0.168
Offensive line starts correlation: 0.153
. . . .
On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse. Since teams use different numbers of defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, I look at both unit-specific categories and those for defense as a whole.
Defensive back tackles correlation: 0.404
Defensive back passes defensed correlation: 0.377
Overall tackles correlation: 0.325
Overall passes defensed correlation: 0.324
Defensive back tackles for loss correlation: 0.299
Overall tackles for loss correlation: 0.269
Linebacker tackles for loss correlation: 0.250
Linebacker tackles correlation: 0.250
Linebacker passes defensed correlation: 0.228
That?s right, the correlations for defensive back tackles and passes defensed is stronger than the correlations for overall tackles.
The strongest correlations on the defensive line, by the way: 0.154 for tackles, 0.119 for tackles for loss. Continuity in the trenches does not appear to be worth what we tend to think it?s worth. But continuity in the passing game, on both sides of the ball, means a ton.