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Thread: Numbers

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked View Post
    3 years until we have close to 85 legit scholarships on roster. That is if we don?t have many misses on signees. There will be some walkons that get scholarships to help the number... transfers count against the signing numbers. We are in a lot worse shape from a numbers standpoint than Ole Miss was during their probation.
    This right here. All these moral victory folks arnt paying much attention to this. We are about to have sever sanction level roster...

  2. #22
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    If the NCAA is gonna allow players to opt out and or transfer, they are gonna have to allow you to replace those players. Rules are gonna have to change.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Homedawg View Post
    Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.
    I believe Eiland will. Not sure about Parker. NFL likes Eiland at G. And he's been good for us there.

  4. #24
    Senior Member LC Dawg's Avatar
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    Seems like a good year to really explore JUCOs since their sophomores will have 3 years of eligibility left. I'm not sure if our numbers lend themselves to this being a good idea but someone will get some good proven players with 3 years left.

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    Imagine starting 2021 with only 68-70 players. Awesome!!!

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowbell View Post
    If the NCAA is gonna allow players to opt out and or transfer, they are gonna have to allow you to replace those players. Rules are gonna have to change.
    I think they will in the short term, but they really don't have to. Players have gone crazy with transferring right now, but if the 25 signee limit isn't changed, a lot of transfers will start finding out that their choices are limited if they want a scholarship. I think that will actually be a good balance. Players can transfer if they're good enough. If they are transferring because they don't like the discipline or for playing time, they'll either have to move down a "level" (whether that be strong P5 program to weak P5 program or P5 program to G5) or they'll have to pay for school for a year until they can be put on scholarship without counting against the 25.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgfan77 View Post
    This right here. All these moral victory folks arnt paying much attention to this. We are about to have sever sanction level roster...
    We're not about to have a roster that looks like we've had severe sanctions, we already do. It looks like we are going to be able to manage ok because we have some young players really stepping up and Arnett seems to be able to make an only slightly shitty tasting chicken salad sandwich out of chicken shit.

    The other thing that makes this different than a roster resulting from sanctions is that it's generally hard to get recruits to come to schools under severe sanctions, so you don't just lose the scholarships, you get lower quality players with the scholarships you do have.

  8. #28
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

    I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

    By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

    I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

    Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

    Am I off base somewhere?
    Last edited by BrunswickDawg; 12-01-2020 at 12:09 PM.
    "After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    We're not about to have a roster that looks like we've had severe sanctions, we already do. It looks like we are going to be able to manage ok because we have some young players really stepping up and Arnett seems to be able to make an only slightly shitty tasting chicken salad sandwich out of chicken shit.

    The other thing that makes this different than a roster resulting from sanctions is that it's generally hard to get recruits to come to schools under severe sanctions, so you don't just lose the scholarships, you get lower quality players with the scholarships you do have.
    The fact that Arnett isn't up for every coordinator of the year award is astounding really. I mean I know our D has dropped off a bit the second half of the season, but I mean look at the secondary this guy has to put out there every week. Emerson is good and Forbes will be good, but Craft is a walk on, Guidry is...…..well Guidry doesn't need to be playing football at this level is probably the nicest way I can put it. Preston plays extremely hard and tackles very well, but he's playing out of position. He really only needs to be a situational SS. Add all that onto the fact that we have almost no d line and have been gutted at the Sam LB position for the last two weeks. It's amazing we don't give up 50 a ballgame. It really is.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

    I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

    By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

    I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

    Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

    Am I off base somewhere?
    I don?t think you are off base. Also, the notion that you need to be at a full 85 to compete is absolutely ridiculous. I think as long as you are in the 70s it?s an even enough playing field.

  11. #31
    Senior Member Lumpy Chucklelips's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

    I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

    By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

    I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

    Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

    Am I off base somewhere?
    CJ Morgan and Peters have already said they are coming back. Eiland and Parker have been "encouraged" to come back by the coaches. The choice is theirs. Murphy and Williams TBD.

    I'm thinking we'll have to process a few more to get down to 85 if my math is correct. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    With this year not counting on eligibility, going into next year, here is what you could have on the team not figuring any more defections next spring, etc. I did not count Erroll Thompson, Marquiss Spencer, Kobe Jones or KJ Costello. By all accounts they are gone no matter what.

    So it could break down like this:

    We can sign 26 this Dec. and Feb.
    19-20 +/- True Freshmen that we sign this year
    5-6 +/- Juco's that we sign this year
    1-2 +/- Grad Transfers that we sign this year
    24 +/- Redshirt Freshmen that are true and RS Freshmen on this years team
    21 +/- Soph. who are on this years team
    14 +/- Jr's who are on this years team
    10 +/- Sr's who are on this years team (I'd be surprised if this number is over 4-5 that come back)

    So that's 94 players that are currently on scholarship and new scholarship players to be signed in Dec. and Feb. Keep in mind the NCAA will NOT count Sr's who opt to come back next year just like they are doing for baseball this upcoming season. So we don't have to worry about counting the Sr's in the numbers. Even if all 10 come back and you take 10 off of the 94, that leaves you with 84. I THINK we will still have to get to 83 because of NCAA sanctions.

    Remember also the juco's we sign this year will have 3, and in one case, 4 years to play. Next years class (2022) will be the year we either sign fewer or process some to get to the 85 unless the NCAA changes the number you can have on scholly again for that year. I don't see how they don't to help teams get their numbers back in line.

    SIGNEES FOR 2021 (26)

    FR (24)
    QB WILL ROGERS FR
    RB JO'QUAVIOUS MARKS FR
    RB DILLON JOHNSON FR
    WR JADEN WALLEY FR
    WR LIDEATRICK GRIFFIN FR
    WR RUFUS HARVEY FR
    WR QUINTON TORBOR RFR
    WR KYZIAH PRUITT RFR
    OL CALVIN McMILLIAN FR
    OL GRANT JACKSON FR
    OL CHARLES CROSS RFR
    OL BRANDON CUNNINGHAM RFR
    DT ARMONDOUS COOLEY FR
    DE JEVON BANKS FR
    DE KING ANI IZUCHUKWU RFR
    DE DE'MONTE RUSSELL RFR
    LB RODNEY GROCE FR
    LB JACK HARRIS RFR
    CB EMMANUEL FORBES FR
    CB DECAMERION RICHARDSON FR
    CB CAMERON THREATT FR
    S JANARI DEAN FR
    S JAVEIOUS PURVIS RFR
    ATH DYLAN LAWRENCE RFR

    SO (21)
    RB LEE WITHERSPOON
    WR GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEY
    WR CAMERON GARDNER
    WR BRAD CUMBEST
    OT KAMERON JONES
    OT DOLLA BILL JOHNSON
    OL REED BUYS
    C COLE SMITH
    DT NATHAN PICKERING
    DT DEVON ROBINSON
    DT CAMERON YOUNG
    DT ALLEN LOVE
    DE JADEN CRUMEDY
    LB NATHANIAL WATSON
    LB JETT JOHNSON
    CB COLLIN DUNCAN
    CB JAYLON REED
    CB ESAIAS FURDGE
    S MARTIN EMERSON
    S AARON BRULE
    S SHAWN PRESTON

    JR (14)
    WR AUSTIN WILLIAMS
    WR MALIK HEATH
    WR CALEB DUCKING
    OL JAMES JACKSON
    OT CORDAVIAN SUGGS
    DE JORDAN DAVIS
    DE AARON ODOM
    LB TYRUS WHEAT
    CB TYLER WILLIAMS
    S KYLE CASS
    S LANDON GUIDRY
    S MARCUS MURPHY
    PK BRANDON RUIZ
    P TUCKER DAY

    SR (10)
    WR JAVONTA PAYTON
    WR OSIRUS MITCHELL
    WR DONTAE JONES
    OL GREG EILAND
    OL DAREUAN PARKER
    OL LAQUINSTON SHARP
    OL SCOTT LASHLEY
    CB KOREY CHARLES
    S CJ MORGAN
    S FRED PETERS


    One thing I do see is that we are going to have a ton of YOUNG talent on the roster the next couple of years getting a whole lot of experience for the future. By the numbers above you'll have 71 Freshmen and Soph. on the team next year not counting any that will leave between now and then. How anyone doesn't get excited reading the names of the Freshmen and Sophomore's on this team is beyond me.
    Last edited by Lumpy Chucklelips; 12-01-2020 at 02:02 PM.

  12. #32
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    I'm not going to quote your thread - but that is great work Lumpy. It lines up pretty well with what I was counting.
    I bet we may lose another 4-5 players from within that list, but if any of the SRs come back that is offset easily.
    "After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
    - Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18

  13. #33
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    Good post lumpy. Has anyone seen any draft grades on Spencer, Thompson, and Kobe Jones? They are all decent to above average and none of them will measure out and combine very well. Since when do nfl teams draft decent to above average players off a below average team who do not test well? someone please explain it to me. Im trying to understand.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by MafiaDawg View Post
    Good post lumpy. Has anyone seen any draft grades on Spencer, Thompson, and Kobe Jones? They are all decent to above average and none of them will measure out and combine very well. Since when do nfl teams draft decent to above average players off a below average team who do not test well? someone please explain it to me. Im trying to understand.
    I don't think anybody is expecting them to leave because they will get a good draft grade. I would hope they could be convinced to stick around but sometimes people just want to take their shot.

  15. #35
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    This is a really good educational informative thread. Thanks to all the contributors - I personally really appreciate it.

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