Another LSU starter out

[Jarius]

I don’t think that’s fair at all. There’s no basis for favoring LSU by 10.

I’d say LSU -4 or -5 & that’s because I have absolutely no idea what we’ll look like

Ok well you will have a big opportunity to make some cash then because we will be a 10 point underdog at minimum unless they have more people opt out. If they have some more leave it will get down that low but not at the moment.

[msbulldog]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

[ShotgunDawg]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

Jump on it. It hasn’t been updated

[Jarius]

Jacoby Stevens is rumored to be the next to opt out by the end of the week. Former 5 star. If he leaves then man....the secondary is no longer very good for them either outside of Stingley.

[ShotgunDawg]

Jacoby Stevens is rumored to be the next to opt out by the end of the week. Former 5 star. If he leaves then man....the secondary is no longer very good for them either outside of Stingley.

And he can’t cover 5 guys

[FISHDAWG]

TK McKlendon - starting DE is now reported in the Portal ... forgive if this has been posted somewhere already

[RocketCityDawg]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

[ShotgunDawg]

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

Good for you. I think it’ll be LSU -<10 by game time

[Cooterpoot]

And he can?t cover 5 guys

And our WRs minus a couple haven't looked good. I don't think you understand what the real practice reports look like. Our defense hasn't been good. Long way to go there and not sure we'll get there this year. WR has been really inconsistent. Also, I don't expect Heath to start/play. And that hurts.
Nothing wrong with optimism, but reality still bites.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Something is definitely going on down on the Bayou. Gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out. I'm not saying it isn't the case, but the chances of this being solely related to COVID is slim.

[Cooterpoot]

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

That's a good get.

[Homedawg]

We better score 50 if you want a cover. Cause we gonna give up a ton of yards and points.

[ShotgunDawg]

We better score 50 if you want a cover. Cause we gonna give up a ton of yards and points.

Wait, we’re giving up 67 points?

[Prediction? Pain.]

Bill C. released new Top and Bottom 10 rankings for returning production accounting for transfers and opt-outs. Among teams that are tentatively set to play this fall, LSU has the 3rd least returning production in the country . . . and we're not too far behind at 8th:

AS for what that normally means, here's an explanation from Jan. 2019:

Most of the teams near the top of the list should be in good shape.

Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points. Last year's top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved . . . .

On the flip side, teams at the bottom might have lean years.

Meanwhile, 80 teams [over the past five years] returned no more than 50 percent of their production; 65 of them (81 percent) regressed, 36 (45 percent) by at least a touchdown. Last year's bottom 10 teams saw their win total decrease by a combined 27 games, from 76 to 49. LSU and FIU each managed to improve by one win, and Colorado held steady at 5-7. The other seven all fell by at least two wins, and four (Navy, Colorado State, Louisville, and CMU) all fell by at least four . . . .

If you're interested, Bill C. also just released his updated S&P+ rankings. He included all FBS teams for the first poll and said he'll pare it down to only teams actually playing once the season starts. The S&P+ likes our offense's chances this season. Projected 26th nationally among all FBS teams, which is good for top half of the SEC. Defense . . . yeah, not so much. Projected 73rd on that front.

[BrunswickDawg]

Bill C. released new Top and Bottom 10 rankings for returning production accounting for transfers and opt-outs. Among teams that are tentatively set to play this fall, LSU has the 3rd least returning production in the country . . . and we're not too far behind at 8th:

AS for what that normally means, here's an explanation from Jan. 2019:



If you're interested, Bill C. also just released his updated S&P+ rankings. He included all FBS teams for the first poll and said he'll pare it down to only teams actually playing once the season starts. The S&P+ likes our offense's chances this season. Projected 26th nationally among all FBS teams, which is good for top half of the SEC. Defense . . . yeah, not so much. Projected 73rd on that front.

Of course, we were high in his returning production rankings the past 2 years, and we see how that turned out.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Of course, we were high in his returning production rankings the past 2 years, and we see how that turned out.

No joke, man. Maybe we can continue being an outlier bucking the trends, stinking when we should be improve and improving when we should stink.

ETA: Actually, we weren't high in his returning-production rankings last year. Even before the suspensions, we were 92nd nationally.

[Cooterpoot]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.

[ShotgunDawg]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.

Correct and that’s a huge issue with MSU and ESPN FPI

[Prediction? Pain.]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.

Correct and that?s a huge issue with MSU and ESPN FPI

I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:

(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)

[ShotgunDawg]

I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:

(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)

Yes, but Costello was hurt last year, so his returning production stinks. Costello only played in 5 games last year and threw for 1038 yards and 6 TDs

However, in 2018 he threw for 3,500 yards and 29 TDs

So what year is more representative of what MSU is getting?