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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #5081
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    It just seems the most plausible explanation given that most weeks look something like this:

    Monday: 0 tests reported
    Tuesday: 10000 tests reported
    Wednesday-Sunday: 5000 tests reported
    But why do you think they are just reporting the negatives? It seems at least as plausible that some clinics report positives but don't report negatives. Some clinics either don't report everyday, or alternatively the MSDH only incporates those labs tests into the data certain days. Unless the data also shows the positive test rate going from 100%, to 5% to 15% or some pattern like that, it seems just as plausible that the negative tests from some clinics just aren't being reported. Not that they are being reported on different days from the positive tests.

  2. #5082
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    Over 1000 new cases and 42 deaths in Mississippi today. I was hoping we would continue to see new infections decrease.

  3. #5083
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    Over 1000 new cases and 42 deaths in Mississippi today. I was hoping we would continue to see new infections decrease.
    Not sure how many tests were given today, but down 19.97% in cases from last Tuesday. Deaths are the same as last Tuesday.

  4. #5084
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    It just seems the most plausible explanation given that most weeks look something like this:

    Monday: 0 tests reported
    Tuesday: 10000 tests reported
    Wednesday-Sunday: 5000 tests reported
    Today's numbers have been reported.

    This week:

    Sunday: 0 tests reported
    Monday: 0 tests reported
    Today: 15000 tests reported

    We average around 5000 tests a day. 1000 of those positive. 20% positivity rate. Everything checks out.

    (liberal use of rounding in calculations to help make my point)

  5. #5085
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    But why do you think they are just reporting the negatives? It seems at least as plausible that some clinics report positives but don't report negatives. Some clinics either don't report everyday, or alternatively the MSDH only incporates those labs tests into the data certain days. Unless the data also shows the positive test rate going from 100%, to 5% to 15% or some pattern like that, it seems just as plausible that the negative tests from some clinics just aren't being reported. Not that they are being reported on different days from the positive tests.
    MSDH just doesn't update its test numbers some days, usually on weekends.

    I don't think it's just as plausible that 100% of our cases reported the past two days came only from clinics that don't report negatives and also today we suddenly have 3x as many tests reported for no reason.

  6. #5086
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    MSDH just doesn't update its test numbers some days, usually on weekends.

    I don't think it's just as plausible that 100% of our cases reported the past two days came only from clinics that don't report negatives and also today we suddenly have 3x as many tests reported for no reason.
    No doubt that shouldn't be happening anymore. Test number lag. Test results lag. Mortality rate lags. We are constantly looking at the picture as it was 3 days - 2 weeks ago.

  7. #5087
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Today's numbers have been reported.

    This week:

    Sunday: 0 tests reported
    Monday: 0 tests reported
    Today: 15000 tests reported

    We average around 5000 tests a day. 1000 of those positive. 20% positivity rate. Everything checks out.

    (liberal use of rounding in calculations to help make my point)
    That seems right.

    Last 3 days' cases are 672, 572, and 1074 for a total of 2318. If its 15000 tests, that's 15.5%

  8. #5088
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    MSDH just doesn't update its test numbers some days, usually on weekends.

    I don't think it's just as plausible that 100% of our cases reported the past two days came only from clinics that don't report negatives and also today we suddenly have 3x as many tests reported for no reason.
    Where are you looking to see the cases? Have you just kept up the last few days? Or is there a graph or chart for tests per day that I am missing?

  9. #5089
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    Over 1000 new cases and 42 deaths in Mississippi today. I was hoping we would continue to see new infections decrease.
    They did decrease by 20% from last Tuesday. Monday was down from last Monday. Sunday too. Cases were down 10 percent last week and looks like will be down again this week.

  10. #5090
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    gonna need you to break down the differences there because... you and especially cowbell are wrong until you can show me how you manipulated context clues to make his statement not mean similar to what I posted.
    Easy homey.
    His definition of herd immunity was predicated upon lifelong immunity following exposure to the virus. The definition you quoted was not. It didn't speak in such absolutes or confine the achievement of herd immunity the way his did.

  11. #5091
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    Where are you looking to see the cases? Have you just kept up the last few days? Or is there a graph or chart for tests per day that I am missing?
    Actually, I'm wrong. They didn't update tests again today. I got confused about Total (PCR + Antibody) and PCR tests (there's about a 16k difference).

    Today: https://covidtracking.com/screenshot...804-182114.png
    July 31: https://covidtracking.com/screenshot...801-181637.png

    To answer your question, you can see historical data and a chart of new tests here: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/mississippi

    I agree that 7 day average positivity % will be out of whack until they dump tests, but I expect it to average out by the end of the week.
    Last edited by hacker; 08-04-2020 at 07:08 PM.

  12. #5092
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    Covid 19 ground zero Texas headed home edition...Good news and Bad news update...

    Good news 1 headed home.
    Good news 2 our final briefing today was encouraging. While the virus has mutated to be more contagious than the original than entered the country in early February it is not as lethal. But they still mandated wearing mask and gloves in public places.

    Now the bad. We were all told to stock up on non-perishable food items 60 day supply for our families through the end of the year. The consensus is when school starts back we will have a major outbreak and food supplies may be affected. The government is not expecting an effective vaccine until after next summer. its hard to distinguish between fact and fiction anymore. Hopefully we will make it through the winter unscathed but i feel another deployment coming on. Hope all of you are safe and Hailstate! And GTHOM!

  13. #5093
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    Quote Originally Posted by 99jc View Post
    Good news 1 headed home.
    Good news 2 our final briefing today was encouraging. While the virus has mutated to be more contagious than the original than entered the country in early February it is not as lethal. But they still mandated wearing mask and gloves in public places.

    Now the bad. We were all told to stock up on non-perishable food items 60 day supply for our families through the end of the year. The consensus is when school starts back we will have a major outbreak and food supplies may be affected. The government is not expecting an effective vaccine until after next summer. its hard to distinguish between fact and fiction anymore. Hopefully we will make it through the winter unscathed but i feel another deployment coming on. Hope all of you are safe and Hailstate! And GTHOM!

    Thanks you the update
    Thanks for doing what you do.

    Stay safe.

  14. #5094
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    Quote Originally Posted by 99jc View Post
    Good news 1 headed home.
    Good news 2 our final briefing today was encouraging. While the virus has mutated to be more contagious than the original than entered the country in early February it is not as lethal. But they still mandated wearing mask and gloves in public places.

    Now the bad. We were all told to stock up on non-perishable food items 60 day supply for our families through the end of the year. The consensus is when school starts back we will have a major outbreak and food supplies may be affected. The government is not expecting an effective vaccine until after next summer. its hard to distinguish between fact and fiction anymore. Hopefully we will make it through the winter unscathed but i feel another deployment coming on. Hope all of you are safe and Hailstate! And GTHOM!
    I think we will either have herd immunity or the virus will burn out before we have a vaccine.

  15. #5095
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked View Post
    I think we will either have herd immunity or the virus will burn out before we have a vaccine.
    I just can't seeing it burn out. And a vaccine is helpful but won't stop it.... so then what??

  16. #5096
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    Quote Originally Posted by Homedawg View Post
    I just can't seeing it burn out. And a vaccine is helpful but won't stop it.... so then what??
    The correct answer is we just have to learn to live with it like the other diseases of the past like Polio, measles, and etc.

    Of course that's not "woke" and we should continue to shut our lives down forever.

  17. #5097
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    The correct answer is we just have to learn to live with it like the other diseases of the past like Polio, measles, and etc.

    Of course that's not "woke" and we should continue to shut our lives down forever.
    Agreed!! That my point....

  18. #5098
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    The correct answer is we just have to learn to live with it like the other diseases of the past like Polio, measles, and etc.

    Of course that's not "woke" and we should continue to shut our lives down forever.
    Exactly, This is the correct answer.

  19. #5099
    Senior Member Gutter Cobreh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    The correct answer is we just have to learn to live with it like the other diseases of the past like Polio, measles, and etc.

    Of course that's not "woke" and we should continue to shut our lives down forever.
    What exactly is currently shut down?

  20. #5100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh View Post
    What exactly is currently shut down?
    D2 football?

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