We're not going to play football this fall **!!!!**

[Johnson85]

It's possible we don't play. It's possible we do play. Anyone saying they know confidently one way or the other plus lying to themselves and lying to you.

Either result is possible, and granted we still don't have perfect information, but us not playing would require us finding out something new about the virus that makes it much more dangerous than it is now, or us just overreacting.

I think the smart bet as of now is that we will play, although there might be disruptions if the summer really slows down the spread and then we get a big spike when it gets cooler. Hopefully we will continue to work though it over the summer and whatever spike comes will be manageable.

[Political Hack]

Either result is possible, and granted we still don't have perfect information, but us not playing would require us finding out something new about the virus that makes it much more dangerous than it is now, or us just overreacting.

I think the smart bet as of now is that we will play, although there might be disruptions if the summer really slows down the spread and then we get a big spike when it gets cooler. Hopefully we will continue to work though it over the summer and whatever spike comes will be manageable.

Depends on the strain of the hospital systems. If we see 80% of hospital beds or ICU beds filled in a state,
I promise you they won't be allowing football games. Death rate is irrelevant in that calculation. Also, nobody knows the long term impacts yet. We're starting to see some of it pop up in children even. If otherwise healthy children are susceptible to auto-immune issues and are actually having some level (% wise) of post-infection reaction, it'll start a political wildfire that won't be out out by pundits arguing about low death rates. All of those variables are moving targets right now. Depending on how it plays out we may or may not have football. Praying we get to see the season, even if it a crazy forfeit filled mess. Also hope I get to see my kids play ball. But that doesn't mean I think it'll happen. Most people right now are arguing for what they want to happen rather than just letting the situation dictate how we should act. It's defiant and irresponsible, but it's also human nature.

[Todd4State]

Depends on the strain of the hospital systems. If we see 80% of hospital beds or ICU beds filled in a state,
I promise you they won't be allowing football games. Death rate is irrelevant in that calculation. Also, nobody knows the long term impacts yet. We're starting to see some of it pop up in children even. If otherwise healthy children are susceptible to auto-immune issues and are actually having some level (% wise) of post-infection reaction, it'll start a political wildfire that won't be out out by pundits arguing about low death rates. All of those variables are moving targets right now. Depending on how it plays out we may or may not have football. Praying we get to see the season, even if it a crazy forfeit filled mess. Also hope I get to see my kids play ball. But that doesn't mean I think it'll happen. Most people right now are arguing for what they want to happen rather than just letting the situation dictate how we should act. It's defiant and irresponsible, but it's also human nature.

I can't see opening up straining the hospital systems. People expecting the future to be worse simply aren't being logical or don't understand how viruses typically work.

[Political Hack]

I can't see opening up straining the hospital systems. People expecting the future to be worse simply aren't being logical or don't understand how viruses typically work.

This isn't just a virus. It's not the flu. It's a pandemic. Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. And it is absolutely possible that it will overwhelm the healthcare system in various regions of the country. I can also tell you that while Georgia is in decline, the southeast has seen a sustained increase in cases the last 4 days in a row with the most significant jump coming yesterday. I completely expect to see stories in the future about PPE shortages, young people dying that didn't even know they had health issues, and ICU bed space limitations. That's a foregone conclusion to "opening up."

[Todd4State]

This isn't just a virus. It's not the flu. It's a pandemic. Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. And it is absolutely possible that it will overwhelm the healthcare system in various regions of the country. I can also tell you that while Georgia is in decline, the southeast has seen a sustained increase in cases the last 4 days in a row with the most significant jump coming yesterday. I completely expect to see stories in the future about PPE shortages, young people dying that didn't even know they had health issues, and ICU bed space limitations. That's a foregone conclusion to "opening up."

It's also not the Spanish Flu either. "It's not the flu" doesn't mean that it's the worst thing in the universe and has no cure and will not get better either. Historically they didn't have the medical advances that we do now in 1918 to make things like vaccines. Of course there will be another wave as we open up- but when that happens more people will have antibodies built up and we will be more prepared from what we have learned from the first wave. I fully expect the media to freak out though. It's what they do. Nevermind that despite crying about how everyone is going to die and that this is the end of the world that it simply hasn't been as bad as everyone feared. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy my day off because the hospital census is too low for me to work.

[Liverpooldawg]

It's also not the Spanish Flu either. "It's not the flu" doesn't mean that it's the worst thing in the universe and has no cure and will not get better either. Historically they didn't have the medical advances that we do now in 1918 to make things like vaccines. Of course there will be another wave as we open up- but when that happens more people will have antibodies built up and we will be more prepared from what we have learned from the first wave. I fully expect the media to freak out though. It's what they do. Nevermind that despite crying about how everyone is going to die and that this is the end of the world that it simply hasn't been as bad as everyone feared. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy my day off because the hospital census is too low for me to work.

Actually there is a lot of speculation that it IS about like the Spanish flu with modern nutrition, sanitation, and supportive medical care. Most of the people who are getting oxygen support for example, a MUCH larger number than those on the vent, would have died in 1919.

[Johnson85]

This isn't just a virus. It's not the flu. It's a pandemic. Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. And it is absolutely possible that it will overwhelm the healthcare system in various regions of the country. I can also tell you that while Georgia is in decline, the southeast has seen a sustained increase in cases the last 4 days in a row with the most significant jump coming yesterday. I completely expect to see stories in the future about PPE shortages, young people dying that didn't even know they had health issues, and ICU bed space limitations. That's a foregone conclusion to "opening up."

I'm not sure how much of that is a foregone conclusion (we will see cases come back, we will see more deaths, there will be people of all ages that find out they have underlying conditions they're unaware of, but we won't necessarily see PPE shortages or the healthcare system overrun), but to the extent it's a foregone conclusion, there's no sense in delaying it. It's going to be bad and tragic but manageable and less bad and tragic than just sticking our heads in the sand and hoping we find a treatment or vaccine before everything falls apart.

[Political Hack]

I'm not sure how much of that is a foregone conclusion (we will see cases come back, we will see more deaths, there will be people of all ages that find out they have underlying conditions they're unaware of, but we won't necessarily see PPE shortages or the healthcare system overrun), but to the extent it's a foregone conclusion, there's no sense in delaying it. It's going to be bad and tragic but manageable and less bad and tragic than just sticking our heads in the sand and hoping we find a treatment or vaccine before everything falls apart.

1) Hospitals and states are relying on FEMA and HHS/CDC to source PPE already. Their regular suppliers are out. If another wave hits anytime soon, we will again experience PPE shortages.

2) Going back to Todd's point about the advancement of medicine in the last 100 years: the longer we can avoid a 2nd wave the less tragic it will be. We will know how to treat it better, we will have more resources available to treat it, we will have time to study vaccines (likely spring before it's even feasible), we will learn more about the vulnerable populations, we will learn more the spread and infectious rate, we will have testing and tracing widespread and available to identify clusters and growth more rapidly, etc... The longer we implement social distancing orders the better off we will be from a health standpoint. You can't argue otherwise logically.

3) We can't let people starve to death and go bankrupt because 1% of the population may die. I realize that and agree. However it has to be phased. This battle between the "two sides" to "open everything" or "shut down everything" may be the dumbest thing I've ever seen or heard of in the history of this country. This is not a black or white issue. It's a huge gray area that has to be managed day to day. We need better data to help manage social distancing while also trying to balance the nation's economic health. Testing and tracing would give local government officials the confidence they need to press the gas and brakes accordingly. Once that happens, it makes sense to take calculated risks. Right now, (and I've used this before), we walked into the middle of a pitchblack bathroom started peeing and hope we hit the toilet. It's absurd how poorly this has been managed.

[Liverpooldawg]

1) Hospitals and states are relying on FEMA and HHS/CDC to source PPE already. Their regular suppliers are out. If another wave hits anytime soon, we will again experience PPE shortages.

2) Going back to Todd's point about the advancement of medicine in the last 100 years: the longer we can avoid a 2nd wave the less tragic it will be. We will know how to treat it better, we will have more resources available to treat it, we will have time to study vaccines (likely spring before it's even feasible), we will learn more about the vulnerable populations, we will learn more the spread and infectious rate, we will have testing and tracing widespread and available to identify clusters and growth more rapidly, etc... The longer we implement social distancing orders the better off we will be from a health standpoint. You can't argue otherwise logically.

3) We can't let people starve to death and go bankrupt because 1% of the population may die. I realize that and agree. However it has to be phased. This battle between the "two sides" to "open everything" or "shut down everything" may be the dumbest thing I've ever seen or heard of in the history of this country. This is not a black or white issue. It's a huge gray area that has to be managed day to day. We need better data to help manage social distancing while also trying to balance the nation's economic health. Testing and tracing would give local government officials the confidence they need to press the gas and brakes accordingly. Once that happens, it makes sense to take calculated risks. Right now, (and I've used this before), we walked into the middle of a pitchblack bathroom started peeing and hope we hit the toilet. It's absurd how poorly this has been managed.

This is an outstanding post.

[Johnson85]

1) Hospitals and states are relying on FEMA and HHS/CDC to source PPE already. Their regular suppliers are out. If another wave hits anytime soon, we will again experience PPE shortages.

Hospitals are burning through PPE now with few COVID patients and without us moving toward any goal.

[Todd4State]

1) Hospitals and states are relying on FEMA and HHS/CDC to source PPE already. Their regular suppliers are out. If another wave hits anytime soon, we will again experience PPE shortages.

2) Going back to Todd's point about the advancement of medicine in the last 100 years: the longer we can avoid a 2nd wave the less tragic it will be. We will know how to treat it better, we will have more resources available to treat it, we will have time to study vaccines (likely spring before it's even feasible), we will learn more about the vulnerable populations, we will learn more the spread and infectious rate, we will have testing and tracing widespread and available to identify clusters and growth more rapidly, etc... The longer we implement social distancing orders the better off we will be from a health standpoint. You can't argue otherwise logically.

3) We can't let people starve to death and go bankrupt because 1% of the population may die. I realize that and agree. However it has to be phased. This battle between the "two sides" to "open everything" or "shut down everything" may be the dumbest thing I've ever seen or heard of in the history of this country. This is not a black or white issue. It's a huge gray area that has to be managed day to day. We need better data to help manage social distancing while also trying to balance the nation's economic health. Testing and tracing would give local government officials the confidence they need to press the gas and brakes accordingly. Once that happens, it makes sense to take calculated risks. Right now, (and I've used this before), we walked into the middle of a pitchblack bathroom started peeing and hope we hit the toilet. It's absurd how poorly this has been managed.

Everyone that has common sense wants the re-opening to be phased. Even the President. But since we're talking about football I highly suspect that we will be in at worst phase two at that point since we're talking four months from now. High schools where I live are starting football practice/conditioning on June 8th.

The thing about social distancing, the economy, a "second wave"- which we don't know if it will even happen or not- the reality is we only can live in the present moment and make the best decision based on the circumstances at the present. If the economy and the country is about to fall apart and overall as a country things are improving from a flattening the curve standpoint and they are where I live the logical thing to do is to re-open using the guidelines set forth by the government. IF there is a second wave we will have to deal with it at that time. Re-opening the country in phases doesn't mean that PPE will stop being produced.

I can tell you at the hospital where I work that our vent population is now back to where it normally is on average. I can also tell you that the majority of people are surviving this- and I'm talking about exclusively the ones that are coming to the hospital and are on a vent at some point during their stay.

[NWADAWG]

[QUOTE=Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. [/QUOTE]

I know a number of people that had strange illnesses back in Dec - Jan. I've been sick about twice in the last 20 years. In Jan. I had a nasty coughing chest something the doctor called a lung infection. Took me about a month to get over. In hindsight, I probably had the CV but no one was testing for or diagnosing it then.

All that to say, I'm beginning to think that this last 2 months just might be the 2nd wave. Maybe we missed the first wave calling it everything but CV.

Note: For the entire month that I was coughing up a lung, I did it under the impression that is was not infectious. So I went to work and lived life every day. No one at my office or my home has gotten sick.

[Johnson85]

I know a number of people that had strange illnesses back in Dec - Jan. I've been sick about twice in the last 20 years. In Jan. I had a nasty coughing chest something the doctor called a lung infection. Took me about a month to get over. In hindsight, I probably had the CV but no one was testing for or diagnosing it then.

All that to say, I'm beginning to think that this last 2 months just might be the 2nd wave. Maybe we missed the first wave calling it everything but CV.

Note: For the entire month that I was coughing up a lung, I did it under the impression that is was not infectious. So I went to work and lived life every day. No one at my office or my home has gotten sick.

You most likely did not have Wuhan unless there is a specific reason to think you were exposed. Even testing people now that are showing symptoms, we are having something like a 10-13% positive rate I think? Not saying you didn't; just that the odds are very much against it.

[NWADAWG]

You most likely did not have Wuhan unless there is a specific reason to think you were exposed.

I do like to frequent the chinese buffets so there's that. **

[Liverpooldawg]

I know a number of people that had strange illnesses back in Dec - Jan. I've been sick about twice in the last 20 years. In Jan. I had a nasty coughing chest something the doctor called a lung infection. Took me about a month to get over. In hindsight, I probably had the CV but no one was testing for or diagnosing it then.

All that to say, I'm beginning to think that this last 2 months just might be the 2nd wave. Maybe we missed the first wave calling it everything but CV.

Note: For the entire month that I was coughing up a lung, I did it under the impression that is was not infectious. So I went to work and lived life every day. No one at my office or my home has gotten sick.

The hospital stats that matter say there was no widespread Covid in most places in the US till March.

[NWADAWG]

The hospital stats that matter say there was no widespread Covid in most places in the US till March.

Are you referring to the hospital stats that didn't think there was Wuhan flu in the US and didn't test anyone for it until March? It's hard to make a claim about stats based on data that wasn't taken. How many sicknesses and deaths got labeled pneumonia, lung infection, flu, etc. before this all broke lose and a test was created. I'm not claiming to know for a fact that this is the 2nd wave only saying that I'm beginning to think it could be. It would explain why so many people were showing to have the antibodies so early in this process. If the 2nd wave is typically much worse than the first, maybe we're in it.

[Jack Lambert]

This isn't just a virus. It's not the flu. It's a pandemic. Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. And it is absolutely possible that it will overwhelm the healthcare system in various regions of the country. I can also tell you that while Georgia is in decline, the southeast has seen a sustained increase in cases the last 4 days in a row with the most significant jump coming yesterday. I completely expect to see stories in the future about PPE shortages, young people dying that didn't even know they had health issues, and ICU bed space limitations. That's a foregone conclusion to "opening up."

There was no second wave with SARS or H1N1 and the Spanish Flu was over a 100 years ago. Things have changed since 1918. Back then the flu travel faster than the news about the flu. There will be hot spots but the word will get out and it wll be stopped.

[Liverpooldawg]

There was no second wave with SARS or H1N1 and the Spanish Flu was over a 100 years ago. Things have changed since 1918. Back then the flu travel faster than the news about the flu. There will be hot spots but the word will get out and it wll be stopped.

We had a vaccine for H1N1. With SARS you got real sick, real quick, so there was little to no pre-symptomatic transmission. That is a MUCH easier disease to isolate and eliminate once you know it's there and what to look for. See my above for the difference in this and Spanish Flu.