Next possible severe threats

[Indndawg]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has maintained an enhanced risk for tomorrow but extended it northward to the 82 corridor. This includes a 10% significant tornado risk, too. The NAM3K the last few runs has shown very strong updraft helicity tracks just south of the 82 corridor. My thinking is that it is keying on storms developing just south of the warm front. The SPC will update again around 12:30. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a moderate risk may be issued for parts of south AL for tornadoes as the tornado threat may increase there during the overnight hours.

[DownwardDawg]

Am I a little safer this time Stark??
Also, how is Wednesday shaping up?

[starkvegasdawg]

Am I a little safer this time Stark??
Also, how is Wednesday shaping up?

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

[RocketDawg]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

According to articles I just googled, the Smithville tornado had max winds of 205 and the Hackleburg storm was 210. I believe the one this past weekend was at 195 - not a lot of difference in wind speed, but remember that wind force quadruples when the speed doubles (it's a function of wind speed squared). I'm not sure how they discriminate between 195 and 200 mph damage when doing their estimates.

The huge tornado in Moore, Oklahoma in (I think) 1999 was measured by the Doppler on Wheels at 301 +/- 20 mph. Can you imagine the destructive force of that storm, especially knowing what last Sunday was like, as well as 2011? Scary.

[RocketDawg]

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

Counting last night, I believe this is the 3rd major cold front to come through this April with near freezing temps at night. April has been very active and it's only the 18th.

[Negative Waves]

According to articles I just googled, the Smithville tornado had max winds of 205 and the Hackleburg storm was 210. I believe the one this past weekend was at 195 - not a lot of difference in wind speed, but remember that wind force quadruples when the speed doubles (it's a function of wind speed squared). I'm not sure how they discriminate between 195 and 200 mph damage when doing their estimates.

The huge tornado in Moore, Oklahoma in (I think) 1999 was measured by the Doppler on Wheels at 301 +/- 20 mph. Can you imagine the destructive force of that storm, especially knowing what last Sunday was like, as well as 2011? Scary.

Another one to look up is the Jarrell Texas tornado of 1997. It?s considered by some to be the worst damage ever from a tornado. It ripped up every piece of vegetation and had some of the most intense ground scouring ever seen. First responders could not discern victims? bodies from animals also killed in the tornado.

[DownwardDawg]

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

Thanks man. Home is 5 miles west of Collins on 84. Williamsburg/Lone Star area.

[Cooterpoot]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

Same happened in Bassfield and Collins area last week.

[RocketDawg]

Another one to look up is the Jarrell Texas tornado of 1997. It?s considered by some to be the worst damage ever from a tornado. It ripped up every piece of vegetation and had some of the most intense ground scouring ever seen. First responders could not discern victims? bodies from animals also killed in the tornado.

Good one. Looks like it was 261 mph, but was fairly small for a catastrophic tornado at only 3/4 mile in width. It, typical of very strong tornadoes, was multi-vortex which accounts for the seemingly miraculous skipped areas that we see some time.

The Greensburg, Kansas storm was at 205 mph and wiped virtually the entire town clean.

Differences in Jarrell and Greensburg and the more recent ones (like last weekend) might be a result of the difference in F and EF wind speed estimation criteria. If Jarrell happend today, it might come in lower, maybe 200 mph - just don't know. But the Moore, OK tornado was actually measured by Doppler, not estimated.

[starkvegasdawg]

Central and south MS (except the panhandle) have now been upgraded to a moderate risk for the threat of strong tornadoes tomorrow. Below is from the latest SPC:

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DOMINANT STORM MODE, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60+ KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A 40-50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS AND VICINITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS IN A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, MAY ALSO OCCUR. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING, A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THIS AREA.

[Churchill]

At this stage what (if any) are the differences in last week and this week ? The areas look very similar.

[starkvegasdawg]

At this stage what (if any) are the differences in last week and this week ? The areas look very similar.

It is similar, but I don't think we have the dynamics are quite as strong. We will have more instability, though. CAPE values are forecast to be up to 4,000kj. Last week we had about a 100kt low level jet blasting through. Last I saw tomorrow it should be around 60-70kts. Still plenty enough to produce some strong tornadoes, but not a 2.25 mile wide high end EF-4 wedge.

[Churchill]

Thank you...I'm gonna be watch'n this sucker like it could produce an EF-10...they all scare me the same.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Thanks for the updates. Not looking forward to more bad weather tomorrow but will hunker down and ride it out here in Southeast Mississippi.

[RocketDawg]

It is similar, but I don't think we have the dynamics are quite as strong. We will have more instability, though. CAPE values are forecast to be up to 4,000kj. Last week we had about a 100kt low level jet blasting through. Last I saw tomorrow it should be around 60-70kts. Still plenty enough to produce some strong tornadoes, but not a 2.25 mile wide high end EF-4 wedge.

The wording in the upgrade to Moderate that you posted above doesn't sound quite as ominous as it did last week, but as I recall, there wasn't a lot of strong wording before the Tennessee tornadoes a month or so ago. So anything could happen.

Don't we have another model run or two before morning?

[starkvegasdawg]

The wording in the upgrade to Moderate that you posted above doesn't sound quite as ominous as it did last week, but as I recall, there wasn't a lot of strong wording before the Tennessee tornadoes a month or so ago. So anything could happen.

Don't we have another model run or two before morning?

Have about three more runs come in between now and then. 1:00pm, 7:00pm, 1:00am.

[RocketDawg]

Have about three more runs come in between now and then. 1:00pm, 7:00pm, 1:00am.

Keep us updated. Are you going south to chase tomorrow?

[starkvegasdawg]

Keep us updated. Are you going south to chase tomorrow?

Right now the plan is to leave vegas around 9:00 and heads towards Jackson and monitor from there and maneuver.

[Churchill]

LOL Always great to hear storm chasers are staging in your area....not