Next possible severe threats

[starkvegasdawg]

You mentioned next Wednesday in the original post. Is that still on the table?

It is still on the table. The last few model runs have had it an overnight event. If trends hold, it'll start getting some airplay in the next 2-3 days.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

Have you seen the damage from that tornado in person yet? I've seen other tornado damage but I've never seen anything like this. The path is so wide it looks like someone cut a freaking road through here. Very distinct line, it's crazy. Obviously I haven't seen the amount you have but to me seeing it was unreal.

It?s like God had a weed eater. It?s hard to fathom.

[dawgday166]

Yes it was EF-4. These things just wipe stuff off the face of the earth. It's just awful to see the destruction

Not an expert like starkvegasdawg or Ref but seems to me their ain't much difference between 4 & 5. I guess 4's tend to leave a few wall studs standing or something.

[Commercecomet24]

It?s like God had a weed eater. It?s hard to fathom.

Yeah it made me physically ill to see it. Lot of friends stuff gone in the blink of an eye. But on the bright side there's a lot of faith and hope in these good folks and that's awesome to see!

[Commercecomet24]

Not an expert like starkvegasdawg or Ref but seems to me their ain't much difference between 4 & 5. I guess 4's tend to leave a few wall studs standing or something.

I'm like you I'm not sure what the difference is but if that's a 4 a don't want to see no 5!

[DownwardDawg]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

[dawgday166]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

Maybe that's the difference although I haven't seen much left from EF-4 either but with a 5 ... if you're in the house you're ****ed IMO. Nothing but slab left after.

[Commercecomet24]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

I am amazed that there weren't more serious injuries and deaths. I mean one death is to many but I do believe it could've been far worse. I give credit to the forecasters and those getting us early warnings for saving more people

[starkvegasdawg]

Maybe that's the difference although I haven't seen much left from EF-4 either but with a 5 ... if you're in the house you're ****ed IMO. Nothing but slab left after.

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

[dawgday166]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

Didn't know all of that but ... Agree on all that. Right now my plan is to load up and get out of the way too. Thinking about breaking down and having an in-ground shelter installed. I really have no desire to ride out one that is fixing to directly hit my house while in the house.

[HaggardDawg]

In regards to an EF4 or EF5, would a Torshel or similar steel above ground shelter be adequate in a tornado that size? I'm about to buy one. It says they're rated and tested at Texas Tech for EF5 force. However, it appears they're just shooting 2x4s at 200mph at the structure. With them being anchored in the slab, would they withstand the blunt force of the winds? I know they'll survive a car or tree falling on them.

[Commercecomet24]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

Always appreciate your info man! Thank you!

[starkvegasdawg]

In regards to an EF4 or EF5, would a Torshel or similar steel above ground shelter be adequate in a tornado that size? I'm about to buy one. It says they're rated and tested at Texas Tech for EF5 force. However, it appears they're just shooting 2x4s at 200mph at the structure. With them being anchored in the slab, would they withstand the blunt force of the winds? I know they'll survive a car or tree falling on them.

They're supposed to. I would be ok taking my chances in one. Underground is always safest, but not always practical. Due to water table at my house I doubt I could have an underground.

[parabrave]

They have lowered the severe threat to the coast, but we sure could use the rain/ Severe drought south of 10.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest info from Jackson NWS is not painting a pretty picture for Sunday. Straight line winds to 70mph, tennis ball size hail, and tornadoes...some possibly strong are now starting to look possible. The next SPC update will be at 1:00am. Models are starting to show multiple rounds of severe storms possible. An early morning round looks to affect north MS in the morning hours and then move out. Main threats for it look to be hail. Late Sunday morning another round looks to develop in south MS and that looks to be the one that will have the primary tornado threat. How far north that threat advances will be determined by how far north the warm front makes it. Instability to the south of it will be very high and with low level shear increasing every model run the results could be bad news. I'm not calling for another 2 1/4 mile wide monster again, but it's possible we see some decent storms out of this. I'll post the latest from the SPC tonight and then see what the latest model runs show in the morning. But if you have interests in south of I-20 I'd stay weather aware Sunday...particularly into the afternoon and evening.

[Commercecomet24]

Latest info from Jackson NWS is not painting a pretty picture for Sunday. Straight line winds to 70mph, tennis ball size hail, and tornadoes...some possibly strong are now starting to look possible. The next SPC update will be at 1:00am. Models are starting to show multiple rounds of severe storms possible. An early morning round looks to affect north MS in the morning hours and then move out. Main threats for it look to be hail. Late Sunday morning another round looks to develop in south MS and that looks to be the one that will have the primary tornado threat. How far north that threat advances will be determined by how far north the warm front makes it. Instability to the south of it will be very high and with low level shear increasing every model run the results could be bad news. I'm not calling for another 2 1/4 mile wide monster again, but it's possible we see some decent storms out of this. I'll post the latest from the SPC tonight and then see what the latest model runs show in the morning. But if you have interests in south of I-20 I'd stay weather aware Sunday...particularly into the afternoon and evening.

Not news I wanted to hear but I appreciate the info so we can keep a heads up.

[RocketDawg]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

But isn't that a matter of the old F scale overestimating the speed of the winds (assuming the newer EF scales are correct)? What was once thought to be 260 mph (I believe that was the beginning of the older F-5 scale) was in actuality 200 mph.

[starkvegasdawg]

But isn't that a matter of the old F scale overestimating the speed of the winds (assuming the newer EF scales are correct)? What was once thought to be 260 mph (I believe that was the beginning of the older F-5 scale) was in actuality 200 mph.

They did change how they rated them, but I'll be honest I'm not very familiar with what all changed.

[Churchill]

Mighty quiet here this AM. I'm taking that as a good thing.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Hey Starkvegasdawg, when are you going to have a weather update for Sunday in South Mississippi? Thanks in advance.