Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
I think the IHME model (60k deaths model) is way too conservative.

First of all, the way this model works is that they selected a mathematical curve and added data to it. It doesn't take into account the fact that our new cases are still about the same as they were 10 days ago. It expects the tail end of the curve to be more like a freefall and I don't think that's going to happen.

You can look at Spain and Italy on this model and see how they're supposed to be down to 100-200 deaths per day right now, yet they're still around 600. It says they'll be under 100 deaths per day by next week.

Finally, for the US, it predicts we'll have ZERO deaths after June 27th. That would mean we'd have to virtually eliminate all new cases within about a month. Does anyone see that happening?
I would say there more then 23K death already. I suspect there are 1000's who died from it that died back in December and January before we really knew about it. . Again my opinion.