Easter Sunday Severe?

[ScoobaDawg]

Oh...wanted to make sure to add this. Tornadoes are NOT the only threat from this system. There will be considerable flash flooding and there will be high winds. How high? Can't really say but it'll be enough to destroy stuff. If you have anything planned outside for Easter, I'd reconsider if you're within the risk area. As always, pay attention to watches and warnings. Your local meteorologists and National Weather Service offices will have the best information.

Good point Ref.. was going to post those images also

[TheRef]

So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.

[RocketDawg]

So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.

No sun here - yet. And looking at the cloud cover it doesn't look like it'll break up any time soon. There's a spot between B'ham and Huntsville that looks thinner, but otherwise clouds look solid over the entire southeastern quadrant

[starkvegasdawg]

Alternator in my truck looks to be shot. Got to scramble to see if I can get it replaced or my chase day is over before it starts.

[ScoobaDawg]

[BeastMan]

How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us

[Bubb Rubb]

How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us

It's going to be stormy but the worst of this will go north of Jackson, I think. I would put Tupelo and Starkville in the cross hairs, and over in Northern Alabama, the worst case scenario is lining up.

[Harrydawg]

Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?

[parabrave]

Well the system is starting to get its act together. Tornado warnings and TStorm warnings in the arklatex moving down 20.

[parabrave]

If you have a chance go to Reed Timmer twit, He is streaming in Shreveport driving down 20.

[EngDawg]

SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating 95% chance or watch issuance across MS.

Can one of the meteorologist on here confirm that the SPC seems to think that south MS will have the greatest threat from discrete cells where they think it will be mainly QLCS in North Central? I tried to decipher the discussion, but I?m not a weather guy by trade...

[ScoobaDawg]

STAY SAFE. PDS watch issued

The
@NWSSPC
has issued a Particuarly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch till 8PM. 90% chance of a tornado, while 80% chance of a significant tornado in the watch area.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106.html
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Northern and central Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in
northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this
afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of
the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi.
Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will
likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA
to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

[Bubb Rubb]

Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?

Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

[shoeless joe]

Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?

[ScoobaDawg]

Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

I would not rule out jackson yet. the warm front continues to push north and clearing all the way up to yahzoo city right now. As the sun comes out, the instability will build up.

[ScoobaDawg]

Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?

Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.

[Bubb Rubb]

Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.

Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.

[ScoobaDawg]

Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.

Watch the temps and dewpoint.

[Bubb Rubb]

Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

[TheRef]

Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

20 homes reporting damage so far in Monroe, LA